Fabulous races in Boston. 2:03:01 is an amazing time. Let's stop and praise JK for his quote of the day yesterday where he basically predicted a world's best in these conditions.
"A near-20 mph tailwind might chop three or four minutes off someone's finishing time. A sub-2:03:59 clocking wouldn't actually shock me. I'll tell you this - if Boston had rabbits and the field that is assembled for the 2011 London marathon was running with a time bonus on the line, I'd actually be a little surprised if someone didn't run the fastest marathon time ever recorded."
http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php
JK has a post-race Boston article here:
https://www.letsrun.com/2011/jkbabblesrevised-0420.php
Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)
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Yeah, it really takes a genious to tell that they will run extremely fast when they have a ridiculous tailwind.
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wejo wrote:
Fabulous races in Boston. 2:03:01 is an amazing time. Let's stop and praise JK for his quote of the day yesterday where he basically predicted a world's best in these conditions.
"A near-20 mph tailwind might chop three or four minutes off someone's finishing time. A sub-2:03:59 clocking wouldn't actually shock me. I'll tell you this - if Boston had rabbits and the field that is assembled for the 2011 London marathon was running with a time bonus on the line, I'd actually be a little surprised if someone didn't run the fastest marathon time ever recorded."
http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php
....all he said is that a sub-2:03:59 WOULDN'T SURPRISE him. He didn't even make any predications. It was a win-win for him by stating it in such an optionally binary way. if they didn't run under 2:03:59, he can say that he never said that, or if they did, he could use his vague statement has some sort of validation that he was right.
What's JK's IQ? I doubt over 150 or even 130. using the term genius in this sense isn't right at all. -
Fitness wrote:
. It was a win-win for him by stating it in such an optionally binary way.
That IS genius!! -
No sense arguing against that, he did call it. He has my +1.
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Fitness wrote:
What's JK's IQ? I doubt over 150 or even 130. using the term genius in this sense isn't right at all.
Spoken like a dumb guy with a high IQ. -
JK is smart, but let's also give some props to Renato Canova. You guys (wejo, rojo, Employee #1) remember this quote, I'm sure:
Renato Canova wrote:
At the moment, there is an athlete clearly stronger than any other in the World, and is Geoffrey Mutai. -
oh god I just remembered Canova coaches Mosop too
holy f -
Coach Busch wrote:
No sense arguing against that, he did call it. He has my +1.
That's the point: he called NOTHING. He only said he "wouldn't be surprised," and he attached so many qualifiers to it is was a 100% safe statement. If the winner had gone 2:04 or 2:05 he would have been no less "right" or "wrong" - there's your test of the prediction's "genius."
Meanwhile, I have a genius prediction: If I was perfectly paced to 4800m of a road 5k with a huge tail wind, I wouldn't be surprised if I ran a PR by somewhere in the vague neighbourhood of 20 seconds. -
mutai is self coached
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wejo wrote:
Fabulous races in Boston. 2:03:01 is an amazing time. Let's stop and praise JK for his quote of the day yesterday where he basically predicted a world's best in these conditions.
"A near-20 mph tailwind might chop three or four minutes off someone's finishing time. A sub-2:03:59 clocking wouldn't actually shock me. I'll tell you this - if Boston had rabbits and the field that is assembled for the 2011 London marathon was running with a time bonus on the line, I'd actually be a little surprised if someone didn't run the fastest marathon time ever recorded."
http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php
JK is so-so-so sick. He knows the x's and o's better than anyone in the game.
For years, average pundits and the athletes will be wondering as Bob Kempainen did way back when, "I wonder if it was the wind or if I was just special that day."
You might have been special but it was the wind. -
Dude, calm down. Why would anyone be surprised to hear that a world best time was run on a downhill course with cool temps, a huge headwind and a few of the greatest runners in the world at the starting line?
If anything JK looks overly conservative in hindsight. If he predicted something that was remotely surprising (e.g. Davila finishing 2nd), I'd give him props. But he didn't. -
meant to say "huge tailwind" of course.
Hey, I'm no genius either. -
Not only is he a genius, but he is a wealthy supporter of U.S. athletics:
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/news/story?id=6381041&campaign=rss&source=OLYHeadlines -
In the history of the Boston Marathon, there was only 1 top-100 performance at the Men's Marathon distance.
ONLY 4 top-200 performances on the ALL-TIME MEN'S LIST.
Say what you will about the wind and the minuscule net downhill average, that does NOT MEAN A DAMN THING. THIS RACE WAS A GAME CHANGER. It doesn't GET THAT FAST OVERNIGHT. Give them the due credit. . .
1 2:03:59 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 28.09.2008
2 2:04:26 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 30.09.2007
3 2:04:27 Duncan Kipkemboi Kibet KEN 25.04.78 1 Rotterdam 05.04.2009
3 2:04:27 James Kipsang Kwambai KEN 28.02.83 2 Rotterdam 05.04.2009
5 2:04:40 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 1 London 17.04.2011
6 2:04:48 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 1 Rotterdam 11.04.2010
7 2:04:53 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Dubai 18.01.2008
8 2:04:55 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 1 Berlin 28.09.2003
8 2:04:55 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 2 Rotterdam 11.04.2010
10 2:04:56 Sammy Korir KEN 12.12.71 2 Berlin 28.09.2003
11 2:04:57 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 1 Frankfurt 31.10.2010
12 2:05:04 Abel Kirui KEN 04.06.82 3 Rotterdam 05.04.2009
13 2:05:08 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 1 Berlin 26.09.2010
14 2:05:10 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 London 26.04.2009
14 2:05:10 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 2 Berlin 26.09.2010
16 2:05:13 Vincent Kipruto KEN 13.09.87 3 Rotterdam 11.04.2010
17 2:05:15 Martin Lel KEN 29.10.78 1 London 13.04.2008
18 2:05:18 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 1 Fukuoka 06.12.2009
19 2:05:19 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 1 London 25.04.2010
20 2:05:20 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 2 London 26.04.2009
21 2:05:23 Lelisa Gemechu Feyisa ETH 01.02.90 4 Rotterdam 11.04.2010
22 2:05:24 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 2 London 13.04.2008
23 2:05:25 Bado Worku ETH 22.07.88 3 Berlin 26.09.2010
24 2:05:27 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22.05.72 3 London 26.04.2009
24 2:05:27 Wilson Chebet KEN 07.12.85 1 Rotterdam 10.04.2011
26 2:05:29 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Dubai 16.01.2009
27 2:05:30 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 3 London 13.04.2008
28 2:05:33 Vincent Kipruto KEN 13.09.87 2 Rotterdam 10.04.2011
29 2:05:36 James Kipsang Kwambai KEN 28.02.83 2 Berlin 28.09.2008
30 2:05:38 Khalid Khannouchi USA 22.12.71 1 London 14.04.2002
31 2:05:39 Eliud Kiptanui KEN 06.06.89 1 Praha 09.05.2010
32 2:05:41 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Chicago 11.10.2009
33 2:05:42 Khalid Khannouchi MAR 22.12.71 1 Chicago 24.10.1999
34 2:05:44 Getu Feleke ETH 28.11.86 1 Amsterdam 17.10.2010
35 2:05:45 Martin Lel KEN 29.10.78 2 London 17.04.2011
35 2:05:45 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 3 London 17.04.2011
37 2:05:47 Vincent Kipruto KEN 13.09.87 1 Paris 05.04.2009
38 2:05:48 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 2 London 14.04.2002
39 2:05:49 William Kipsang KEN 26.06.77 1 Rotterdam 13.04.2008
40 2:05:50 Evans Rutto KEN 08.04.78 1 Chicago 12.10.2003
41 2:05:52a Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot KEN 10.08.88 1 Boston 19.04.2010
42 2:05:56 Khalid Khannouchi USA 22.12.71 1 Chicago 13.10.2002
42 2:05:56 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 24.09.2006
44 2:06:04 Abderrahim Goumri MAR 21.05.76 2 Chicago 11.10.2009
45 2:06:05 Ronaldo da Costa BRA 07.06.70 1 Berlin 20.09.1998
46 2:06:08 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Berlin 20.09.2009
46 2:06:08 Vincent Kipruto KEN 13.09.87 3 Chicago 11.10.2009
48 2:06:09 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Dubai 22.01.2010
49 2:06:10 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 1 Fukuoka 07.12.2008
50 2:06:12 Wilson Chebet KEN 07.12.85 2 Amsterdam 17.10.2010
51 2:06:13 Wilson Kiprotich Kebenei KEN 20.07.80 1 Otsu 07.03.2011
52 2:06:14 Felix Limo KEN 22.08.80 1 Rotterdam 04.04.2004
52 2:06:14 Patrick Makau KEN 02.03.85 4 Rotterdam 05.04.2009
52 2:06:14 Gilbert Kirwa KEN 20.12.85 1 Frankfurt 25.10.2009
55 2:06:15 Titus Munji KEN 20.12.79 3 Berlin 28.09.2003
55 2:06:15 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 4 London 13.04.2008
55 2:06:15 Bazu Worku Hayla ETH 15.09.90 2 Paris 05.04.2009
58 2:06:16 Moses Tanui KEN 20.08.65 2 Chicago 24.10.1999
58 2:06:16 Daniel Njenga KEN 07.05.76 2 Chicago 13.10.2002
58 2:06:16 Toshinari Takaoka JPN 24.09.70 3 Chicago 13.10.2002
58 2:06:16 Evans Rutto KEN 08.04.78 1 Chicago 10.10.2004
62 2:06:17 Ryan Hall USA 14.10.82 5 London 13.04.2008
63 2:06:18 Paul Tergat KEN 17.06.69 4 Chicago 13.10.2002
63 2:06:18 Evans Rutto KEN 08.04.78 1 London 18.04.2004
63 2:06:18 Gilbert Koech KEN 81 1 Amsterdam 18.10.2009
66 2:06:20 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Amsterdam 16.10.2005
67 2:06:23 Robert Cheboror KEN 09.09.78 1 Amsterdam 17.10.2004
67 2:06:23 Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot KEN 10.08.88 2 Frankfurt 25.10.2009
67 2:06:23 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 2 London 25.04.2010
70 2:06:24 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Chicago 10.10.2010
71 2:06:25 Evans Kiprop Cheruiyot KEN 10.05.82 1 Chicago 12.10.2008
72 2:06:26 David Kiyeng KEN 83 3 Paris 05.04.2009
73 2:06:29 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 1 Amsterdam 21.10.2007
74 2:06:30 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 4 Paris 05.04.2009
75 2:06:31 Tadesse Tola ETH 31.10.87 2 Frankfurt 31.10.2010
75 2:06:31 Benjamin Kiptoo KEN 79 1 Paris 10.04.2011
77 2:06:32 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Beijing 24.08.2008
78 2:06:33 Gert Thys RSA 12.11.71 1 Tokyo 14.02.1999
78 2:06:33 Michael Rotich KEN 29.10.82 1 Paris 06.04.2003
78 2:06:33 Chala Dechase ETH 13.06.84 2 Dubai 22.01.2010
81 2:06:34 Marilson dos Santos BRA 06.08.77 4 London 17.04.2011
82 2:06:35 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 3 London 14.04.2002
82 2:06:35 Markos Geneti ETH 30.05.84 1 Los Angeles 20.03.2011
84 2:06:36 António Pinto POR 22.03.66 1 London 16.04.2000
84 2:06:36 Benoit Zwierzchiewski FRA 19.08.76 2 Paris 06.04.2003
86 2:06:38 Sammy Korir KEN 12.12.71 1 Rotterdam 09.04.2006
86 2:06:38 Deriba Merga Ejigu ETH 26.10.80 6 London 13.04.2008
88 2:06:39 William Kipsang KEN 26.06.77 1 Amsterdam 19.10.2003
88 2:06:39 Felix Limo KEN 22.08.80 1 London 23.04.2006
88 2:06:39 Samuel Wanjiru KEN 10.11.86 1 Fukuoka 02.12.2007
91 2:06:40 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 1 Paris 06.04.2008
92 2:06:41 Martin Lel KEN 29.10.78 2 London 23.04.2006
92 2:06:41 Elijah Keitany KEN 83 2 Amsterdam 18.10.2009
92 2:06:41 Tadesse Tola ETH 31.10.87 1 Paris 11.04.2010
95 2:06:42 Felix Limo KEN 22.08.80 2 Amsterdam 19.10.2003
96 2:06:43 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 2 Chicago 10.10.2010
97 2:06:44 Josephat Kiprono KEN 12.12.73 1 Berlin 26.09.1999
97 2:06:44 Felix Limo KEN 22.08.80 1 Berlin 26.09.2004
97 2:06:44 Paul Kirui KEN 05.02.80 2 Rotterdam 09.04.2006
100 2:06:45 Richard Limo KEN 18.11.80 2 Amsterdam 21.10.2007
101 2:06:46 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 01.01.69 5 Chicago 13.10.2002
101 2:06:46 Eshetu Wondimu ETH 26.01.82 3 Dubai 22.01.2010
103 2:06:47 Fred Kiprop KEN 03.06.74 1 Amsterdam 17.10.1999
103 2:06:47 Raymond Kipkoech Chemwoio KEN 19.04.78 1 Berlin 29.09.2002
103 2:06:47 Wilson Onsare KEN 15.06.76 3 Paris 06.04.2003
106 2:06:48 Driss El Himer FRA 04.04.74 4 Paris 06.04.2003
106 2:06:48 Sammy Korir KEN 12.12.71 2 London 18.04.2004
106 2:06:48 Rachid Kisri MAR 01.03.75 5 Paris 05.04.2009
109 2:06:49 Tesfaye Jifar ETH 23.04.76 2 Amsterdam 17.10.1999
109 2:06:49 Simon Biwott KEN 03.03.70 2 Berlin 29.09.2002
109 2:06:49 Joseph Riri KEN 21.10.73 2 Berlin 26.09.2004
109 2:06:49 Sylvester Teimet KEN 84 1 Seoul 21.03.2010
113 2:06:50 Belayneh Dinsamo ETH 28.06.65 1 Rotterdam 17.04.1988
113 2:06:50 William Kiplagat KEN 21.06.72 3 Amsterdam 17.10.1999
113 2:06:50 Josephat Kiprono KEN 12.12.73 1 Rotterdam 22.04.2001
113 2:06:50 Deriba Merga Ejigu ETH 26.10.80 2 Fukuoka 02.12.2007
113 2:06:50 Moses Kimeli Arusei KEN 84 2 Paris 06.04.2008
118 2:06:51 Atsushi Fujita JPN 06.11.76 1 Fukuoka 03.12.2000
118 2:06:51 Abel Kirui KEN 04.06.82 2 Berlin 30.09.2007
120 2:06:52 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 01.01.69 4 London 14.04.2002
120 2:06:52 Vincent Kipsos KEN 22.06.76 3 Berlin 29.09.2002
120 2:06:52 Charles Kibiwott KEN 08.08.74 3 Rotterdam 09.04.2006
120 2:06:52 Julio Rey ESP 13.01.72 1 Hamburg 23.04.2006
120 2:06:52 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73 1 Fukuoka 03.12.2006
125 2:06:53 David Kipkorir KEN 15.12.74 6 Paris 05.04.2009
125 2:06:53 Emmanuel Mutai KEN 12.10.84 4 London 26.04.2009
127 2:06:54 Ondoro Osoro KEN 03.12.67 1 Chicago 11.10.1998
127 2:06:54 Abel Kirui KEN 04.06.82 1 Berlin 22.08.2009
129 2:06:55 Hendrick Ramaala RSA 02.02.72 3 London 23.04.2006
129 2:06:55 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22.05.72 3 London 25.04.2010
131 2:06:57 Takayuki Inubushi JPN 11.08.72 2 Berlin 26.09.1999
131 2:06:57 Tesfaye Tola ETH 19.10.74 4 Amsterdam 17.10.1999
133 2:06:58 Daniel Rono KEN 13.07.78 2 Rotterdam 13.04.2008
134 2:06:59 Gilbert Kirwa KEN 20.12.85 2 Seoul 21.03.2010
135 2:07:01 Khalid Khannouchi USA 22.12.71 1 Chicago 22.10.2000
135 2:07:01 Geoffrey Mutai KEN 07.10.81 1 Eindhoven 11.10.2009
135 2:07:01 Bernard Kiprop Kipyego KEN 16.07.86 5 Rotterdam 11.04.2010
138 2:07:02 Sammy Lelei KEN 14.08.64 1 Berlin 24.09.1995
138 2:07:02 Driss El Himer FRA 04.04.74 1 Amsterdam 21.10.2001
138 2:07:02 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22.05.72 3 London 18.04.2004
138 2:07:02 Felix Limo KEN 22.08.80 1 Chicago 09.10.2005
138 2:07:02 Paul Biwott KEN 18.04.78 3 Amsterdam 18.10.2009
143 2:07:04 Khalid Khannouchi USA 22.12.71 4 London 23.04.2006
143 2:07:04 Francis Kiprop KEN 04.06.82 2 Berlin 20.09.2009
143 2:07:04 Elias Kemboi KEN 10.03.84 3 Frankfurt 31.10.2010
143 2:07:04 Bekana Daba ETH 29.07.88 1 Houston 30.01.2011
147 2:07:05 Joshua Chelanga KEN 07.04.73 3 Berlin 26.09.2004
147 2:07:05 William Kiplagat KEN 21.06.72 3 Frankfurt 25.10.2009
149 2:07:06 Josephat Kiprono KEN 12.12.73 2 Amsterdam 21.10.2001
149 2:07:06 Ian Syster RSA 20.01.76 5 London 14.04.2002
149 2:07:06 Gert Thys RSA 12.11.71 1 Seoul 14.03.2004
149 2:07:06 Charles Munyeki Kiama KEN 02.11.86 4 Chicago 11.10.2009
153 2:07:07 Ahmed Salah DJI 31.12.56 2 Rotterdam 17.04.1988
153 2:07:07 Paul Koech KEN 25.06.69 2 Chicago 12.10.2003
155 2:07:09 Japhet Kosgei KEN 20.12.68 1 Rotterdam 18.04.1999
155 2:07:09 Benjamin Maiyo KEN 06.10.78 2 Chicago 09.10.2005
157 2:07:10 Khalid Khannouchi MAR 22.12.71 1 Chicago 19.10.1997
158 2:07:11 Abdelkader El Mouaziz MAR 01.01.69 1 London 22.04.2001
158 2:07:11 Alfred Kering KEN 80 2 Paris 11.04.2010
158 2:07:11 Tsegay Kebede ETH 15.01.87 2 Praha 09.05.2010
158 2:07:11 Philip Sanga Kimutai KEN 10.09.83 4 Frankfurt 31.10.2010
162 2:07:12 Carlos Lopes POR 18.02.47 1 Rotterdam 20.04.1985
162 2:07:12 Paul Kirui KEN 05.02.80 3 Amsterdam 21.10.2007
162 2:07:12 James Rotich KEN 22.12.78 4 Amsterdam 21.10.2007
165 2:07:13 Steve Jones GBR 04.08.55 1 Chicago 20.10.1985
165 2:07:13 Atsushi Sato JPN 08.05.78 3 Fukuoka 02.12.2007
165 2:07:13 Wilson Kipsang Kiprotich KEN 15.03.82 3 Paris 11.04.2010
168 2:07:14 Daniel Njenga KEN 07.05.76 3 Chicago 09.10.2005
168 2:07:14a Robert Kipkoech Cheruiyot KEN 26.09.78 1 Boston 17.04.2006
170 2:07:15a Cosmas N'Deti KEN 24.11.71 1 Boston 18.04.1994
170 2:07:15 Japhet Kosgei KEN 20.12.68 1 Tokyo 13.02.2000
170 2:07:15 Dmitriy Baranovskiy UKR 28.07.79 2 Fukuoka 03.12.2006
173 2:07:16 Isaac Macharia KEN 25.11.80 2 Dubai 18.01.2008
173 2:07:16 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22.05.72 2 Beijing 24.08.2008
173 2:07:16 Bernard Kiprop Kipyego KEN 16.07.86 2 Paris 10.04.2011
176 2:07:17 Benjamin Kiptoo KEN 79 1 Roma 22.03.2009
177 2:07:18 Kenneth Cheruiyot KEN 02.08.74 2 Rotterdam 22.04.2001
177 2:07:18 David Barmasai KEN 87 1 Dubai 21.01.2011
179 2:07:19a Andrés Perez Espinosa MEX 04.02.63 2 Boston 18.04.1994
179 2:07:19 Khalid Khannouchi MAR 22.12.71 2 Chicago 11.10.1998
179 2:07:19 Jaouad Gharib MAR 22.05.72 3 Fukuoka 03.12.2006
179 2:07:19 Mubarak Hassan Shami QAT 02.12.80 1 Paris 15.04.2007
183 2:07:20 Vincent Rousseau BEL 29.07.62 2 Berlin 24.09.1995
183 2:07:20 Lee Bong-Ju KOR 11.10.70 2 Tokyo 13.02.2000
185 2:07:21 Robert Kiprono Cheruiyot KEN 10.08.88 1 Frankfurt 26.10.2008
186 2:07:22 Stefano Baldini ITA 25.05.71 5 London 23.04.2006
187 2:07:23 Fabián Roncero ESP 19.10.70 2 Rotterdam 18.04.1999
187 2:07:23 Viktor Röthlin SUI 14.10.74 1 Tokyo 17.02.2008
187 2:07:23 David Kipkorir KEN 15.12.74 1 Hamburg 27.04.2008
187 2:07:23a Kebede Tekeste ETH 81 2 Boston 19.04.2010
187 2:07:23 Nicholas Koech KEN 82 3 Praha 09.05.2010
187 2:07:23 Chala Dechase ETH 13.06.84 3 Amsterdam 17.10.2010
193 2:07:24 Hosea Kiprop Rotich KEN 02.10.79 3 Paris 06.04.2008
194 2:07:26 Fabián Roncero ESP 19.10.70 1 Rotterdam 19.04.1998
194 2:07:26 Benjamin Kimutai Kosgei KEN 05.09.71 1 Amsterdam 20.10.2002
194 2:07:26 Martin Lel KEN 29.10.78 1 London 17.04.2005
197 2:07:27 Josephat Kiprono KEN 12.12.73 2 Berlin 20.09.1998
197 2:07:27 Julio Rey ESP 13.01.72 1 Hamburg 27.04.2003
199 2:07:28 Josiah Thugwane RSA 15.04.71 1 Fukuoka 07.12.1997
199 2:07:28 Evans Rutto KEN 08.04.78 4 Chicago 09.10.2005
201 2:07:29 Josephat Kiprono KEN 12.12.73 2 Chicago 22.10.2000
201 2:07:29 Stefano Baldini ITA 25.05.71 6 London 14.04.2002
201 2:07:29 Salim Kipsang KEN 22.12.79 3 Berlin 30.09.2007
201 2:07:29 Abreham Cherkos ETH 23.09.89 4 Amsterdam 17.10.2010 -
Gubby craps his pants. wrote:
In the history of the Boston Marathon, there was only 1 top-100 performance at the Men's Marathon distance.
ONLY 4 top-200 performances on the ALL-TIME MEN'S LIST.
Say what you will about the wind and the minuscule net downhill average, that does NOT MEAN A DAMN THING. THIS RACE WAS A GAME CHANGER. It doesn't GET THAT FAST OVERNIGHT. Give them the due credit. . .
Gubby, i posted this on another thread but will repost it below:
rojo wrote:
The races were very, very exciting and Davila's bid for victory was truly special.
That being said, your statements go way to far. The times were amazing but so the tailwind was equally as amazing.
I remember back in college when Obadele Thompson ran 9.69 for 100m in a college meet at UTEP in 1996 back when the world record was 9.85.
No one in their right mind called it the greatest performance in history as the tail-wind was an ridiculous 5.7 mps (the time converts to 9.93 with no wind or 9.95 dependig on who you are talking to).
Well today let's say the winds were roughly 20 mph (i saw 19 with gusts to 33 mph).
What does a 20 mph wind convert to in mps? 8.9408(20 miles x 1609.344 meters / 3600 seconds) . Nearly twice as much as Thompson's.
As we pointed out in our pre-race article, which we entitled "Once In A (Marathon) Lifetime Weather Conditions Forecast For Boston On Monday", that is worth a ton of time. How much? Some like JK might say 3-4 minutes.
If you don't want to believe me, do the following. Go to the wind/conversion site that exists for sprinting.
http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/wind/index.html
Input today's performances. Mutai's marathon time today comes out to him running 17.49496883 per 100 meters.
Input 8.9408 for the wind and input 70 meters for altitude (as the race roughly starts at 70m of altitude and finishes at 0) and you end up with an equivalent time of 17.83 seconds per 100 meters if run with zero wind at sea level.
Multiply that by 421.94988 (there are 421.95 100 meter segments in a marathon)to get the total time for the marathon of 7523.36636 seconds or 2:05:24.
Now that's not 3-4 minutes but you get my point. It's worth a lot. When JK actually wakes up from his nap (I think he's been asleep all day), I'll ask him about that sprint/conversion chart. But he was clearly proven to yet again be a genius today.
It sort of reminds me of when I used to run road races. I would only run road races that were certified as I couldn't stand it when there would be clearly a short course and hear people counting it as their PR. If you run 5 road certified road races at 15:10 and then one day run 14:30 on a non-certified course, you shouldn't say your PR is 14:30 as it was likely short. -
wejo wrote:
Fabulous races in Boston. 2:03:01 is an amazing time. Let's stop and praise JK for his quote of the day yesterday where he basically predicted a world's best in these conditions.
"A near-20 mph tailwind might chop three or four minutes off someone's finishing time. A sub-2:03:59 clocking wouldn't actually shock me. I'll tell you this - if Boston had rabbits and the field that is assembled for the 2011 London marathon was running with a time bonus on the line, I'd actually be a little surprised if someone didn't run the fastest marathon time ever recorded."
http://www.letsrun.com/2011/bostonweather-0416.php
That JK is a genius alright. Before JK, no one has ever thought that a strong tailwind would help in a marathon. NO ONE.
18 miles per hour is 8.0 meters per second -- or 4 times what is allowable in a sprint race. FYI the winds were officially 19.6 mph throughout the race (gusts 27-31mph) from the West/WSW -- directly at their backs.
1983 16mps start 10-13 mph the rest of the way SSW directly at their backs. Greg Meyer ran 2:09.00. His second fastest marathon is 2:10:59.
1994 18-20mph gusts 26-33 mph WNW winds (quartering) Kempainen ran 2:08:47. His second fastest marathon is 2:12:45.
Todays conditions were truly a 'perfect storm'. -
Strong field, last year Boston CR dropped from 2:07's to 2:05's skipping the 2:06's with an honest effort. Put in a big tail wind and IRC and guess another minute or so drop? Logical, not Genius. With the Pace Rabbit (Hall) even more ideal!
My confusion is what this point to point course with huge tail wind does to comparison of courses? Is Boston now the official fastest course of the Majors when it used to be slowest?
Is Hall really a 2:04 marathoner?
Just don't know how to grasp today's Mother Nature assisted performances. -
You are absolutly correct in that the wind certainly helped the runners. However, it is virtually impossible to say exactly how much. Vs. a 100m dash where the wind should help you the same amount the whole race, in a marathon the wind benefit should vary signficantly - not only in various places on the course but also by individual runner depending on where they were in the pack. Combine this with the fact there is always a huge variation in performances on a normal day (if there had been a head wind that slowed them down in the first half the winners time would not have been nearly as fast but I would bet the some runners would actually have run faster with a headwind as it would have made for more optimal pacing for them).
All in all, you can only say it was a fantastic performance. -
Rojo: remember that wind speed, for weather measurement, is taken 10m above the ground. However, wind speed measurements in sprint races are taken 1m off the ground in EXACTLY the direction of the race. Pretty significant difference. Still, yes, it was a big help, but it was still a great race. Say you add 3 minutes, so Mutai ran 2:06 flat. Still phenomenal.
