ventolin^3 wrote:
what athletes consider possible & what stats indicate are 2 different animals
And what you believe to be reality, and what actually is reality, are also, OFTEN (not always), two different things.
ventolin^3 wrote: the mercier calculator :
http://myweb.lmu.edu/jmureika/track/Mercier/instructions.htmlwhich gives 26'17.53 = to 12'31.80 !
ok it's far from foolproof, but i'd certainly suggest 26'17 is significantly superior to 12'37
Ok, you duly noted that calculators are imprecise, and are only guesstimates. So we will both agree that we are only making guesses. Your, the IAAF's, mercier's, and every other calculator are only as good as the logic behind their calculations.
Here's my take:
First, let's definitely establish that there have been waaaaaay less competitive, world class 10k's than their have been 5k's over the last many years. Furthermore, many other potential 10k stars are attracted to the roads. This strongly suggests that there could have been many more 26:30 runners if african 5k stars had not focused on the 5k, or african marathon/road stars did not focus on the roads. Therefore, Kenny would have most likely have had a lot more company in the rarefied air of 26:30 or below if the 10k had not been so diluted by the aforementioned situations.
Second, let's look at 3 runners that demonstrate that sub 26:30 potential is not so out of this world: Nicholas Kemboi, Abebe Dinkesa Negera, and Sammy Wanjiru. Both Kemboi and Dinkesa ran 26:30 with very thin resumes. Dinkesa is extremely injury prone, and Kemboi apparently had little interest in serious training (according to Renato). Yet, despite these achilles heels, and lack of strong history of racing or training, these guys both ran 26:30. CLEARLY, each was capable of 26:25 if they had been healthier or had more motivation. With that in mind, 26:17 does not seem so shocking (no more shocking than 12:37).
And Wanjiru, (and this is related to my first point concerning some 10k guys leaving the event and going to the roads), ran 26:41 at age 18 after trying to go with Bekele through 5k at about 13:10 (!) which was virtually his pr at the time. Talk about SUICIDE pace. Yet he still ran 26:41 at age 18(!!) off of a SUICIDE pace! Now certainly, I can almost say absolutely, if Wanjiru had fully focused on the track and the 10k, and ran saner splits in future races, in his prime he would have easily been another 26:25 guy (at least. Maybe 26:20). So there you have it, three guys with 26:25 potential at least.
Thirdly, after Geb and Komen, the next group of 5 guys behind Bekele's 12:37 are 9-12 seconds behind his record. That would be equivalent of being 18-24 second behind at 10k. However, at 10k, after Geb the next groups of guys are 10, 13, 13, 18, 19, 20, 21, 21, 22, 22, etc, seconds behind. In short, there are MORE GUYS CLOSER, %-wise, to the 10k record than there are guys that close (%-wise) to the 5k record. This despite the all-time 10k list being diluted by the roads and lack of top 10k races compared to 5k races. Read that again: MORE GUYS CLOSER %-wise TO THE 10K RECORD THAN THERE ARE GUYS THAT CLOSE TO THE 5K RECORD.
So considering the above assault of facts and reasoning, your statement that "26:17 is far superior to 12:37, and probably worth 12:32" just doesn't hold up.