mshgdhh wrote:
Wrong. Derrick is clearly more talented, even before you consider the injury issue. Every in season race, highschool or college, has resuled in a victory for Derrick.
Fernandez has better PRs across the board, a high school record, junior record, an NCAA title, and beat Derrick at USA Junior Cross Nationals and Worlds.
Beating a more talented runner when they're injured doesn't make one more talented.
si stitchup wrote:
!!! Is this even a serious question?!?!?!
For those of you who truly in your heart of hearts believe that ungainly little shuffler Alan Webb - he of ONE ridiculous year in which he became the 7th fastest miler in history and went from being a 1.46.0 800m runner to a 1.43 800m at some obscure meets in Europe (oh yeah coincidence, sure) was legit, you can not be serious.
Andrew Wheating is your talent. A 6-5 guy with legit 1.44.0 - 3.49 mile range (eventually) but more importantly a guy who CAN win major championships. He is your only hope. He has the ability to catch a down year at a WC or Olympic Games and win (see Nils Schumann 2000 (pr 1.44.3)) (see 1500m final from Beijing).
I can't even believe the answer to this is even being debated! Final input - have you ever watched both of them run? There's your simple answer.
Yes I have watched them both run. Doesn't really give me any answers.
The ability to win championship races is not talent. And Wheating is very far from proving that he can do that.
As for German vs. Derrick, German by a long shot. But by virtue of better durability and, as far as I can tell, better coaching Derrick is the better runner.
Webb's awesome 10k debut wasn't so surprising given all of the long hard runs he was doing. Remind you of someone else?? SOLINSKY - long hard runs. They say the 10k really made sense for him given that aspect of his training.
What is talent anyway? Both Webb and Wheating were very physically active as kids. I'm just imagining Wheating as a soccer nut from age 4. That youth development of fitness seems to go a long way.
And yet when he steps on the track and makes massive strides in a few seasons, and when Webb busts out a great debut 10k, everyone thinks in terms of the magical "talent" factor, and not in their recent/life history, which is all "training" in one form or another.
gregon's talented, no question about it. he does not yet have the range to be obviously more talented than webb, but maybe the 800 will drop precipitously if he races it this month, just as happened for Webb, and maybe the 3000m/5000m would drop as much if he raced them this month.
800 Metres 1:46.04 Melbourne (OP) 04/03/2010
1500 Metres 3:31.06 Monaco 22/07/2010
One Mile 3:53.19 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010
3000 Metres 7:57.45 Christchurch 13/03/2009
5000 Metres 13:56.83 Melbourne 05/03/2009
German
atletabanana wrote:
And yet when he steps on the track and makes massive strides in a few seasons, and when Webb busts out a great debut 10k, everyone thinks in terms of the magical "talent" factor, and not in their recent/life history, which is all "training" in one form or another.
Umm I played soccer from age 4 too pal.... You don't see me making the olympics after running for what 2 years. LOL
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Umm I played soccer from age 4 too pal.... You don't see me making the olympics after running for what 2 years. LOL[/quote]
modesty, hummmm. you are probably better than you let on. 2 years running. give it 3 more years constancy you'll make the olys. just a guess you a 5k sub 16 mins
Speaking of Webb going bald at 20 years. I think that his falloff in performance can be atrributed to his use of Propecia to regrow his hair. It's side effect is to supress Testosterone and increase Estrogen production.....
Webb is more talented, because wheating will never run 3:46.
toro wrote:If Wheating goes on to run 1:43.7 and 27:30 will he become more talented?
no
because webb only had 1 10k that year & not many more 800s in the other - we don't know what his limit was in either for those specific years
You just assume he can't hit those numbers.
A month ago I assumed he would never go under 3:33 in his life.
believe you me, a 3'30 is a helluva lot easier for a 1'44 guy than 27'30
try this :
1'44 / 3'30 ->28'22
if wheating ran a 10k this season off his 800/1500 training, it woud be a monumental achievement to break 28'30
You don't know anyone's limit even after their career is over. There is always "woulda, coulda."
That's why calling talent can never be more than speculation.
My guess is Wheating will never run a 10,000 and may never seriously attempt a 5,000.
Morceli never ran a 10,000 and didn't run as fast as Webb at 800m. Was Webb more talented than Morceli?
Obviously I need to define talent: If everyone in america ran the same amount (minimally, but not complete couch potatoes) and then did a time trial at 16. How well you do there is your TALENT. At least in the sense that I am talking about.
toro wrote:You don't know anyone's limit even after their career is over. There is always "woulda, coulda."
That's why calling talent can never be more than speculation
seeing as webb had just about 1 serious run over 800 & 10k those years & went 1'43.8 & 27'34, it is very safe to speculate he couda run faster given 3 or 4 goes over 800 at elite meets that year & also with the 10k if he'd run another couple
this isn't wild speculation just usual expectation
My guess is Wheating will never run a 10,000 and may never seriously attempt a 5,000
well, we don't have to wait for never
he woudn't break 28'30 currently, so bandying 27'30 even if he switched to 10k is a nonsense
Morceli never ran a 10,000 and didn't run as fast as Webb at 800m. Was Webb more talented than Morceli?
& like webb, morceli ran about 1 800 that year in 1'44.79 iirc
do you seriously doubt he woudn't have gone 1'43 if he'd run a few of them that year ???
as for 10k, he woudn't have broken 27'20 in his 3'27wr prime
why anybody woud be interested in his 10k potential is completely mystifying ?!
theone wrote:
Obviously I need to define talent: If everyone in america ran the same amount (minimally, but not complete couch potatoes) and then did a time trial at 16. How well you do there is your TALENT. At least in the sense that I am talking about.
What I meant is that I'm talking about that sorta thing, how fast you can naturally run; YOUR POTENTIAL.
ventolin^3 wrote:
why anybody woud be interested in his 10k potential is completely mystifying ?!
Well, you're the one that pointed at Webb's 10K to say he had more talent than Wheating so I figured you would be interested.
And I couldn't tell if you thought Morceli had more talent than Webb by your response.
toro wrote:Well, you're the one that pointed at Webb's 10K to say he had more talent than Wheating so I figured you would be interested
that was in relation to morceli
wheating's 10k is of no interest to me
And I couldn't tell if you thought Morceli had more talent than Webb by your response.
morceli
an actual 3'27 guy trumps a 27'34 or a 1'43.8 even if latter 2 were run in same year by the other guy ( they weren't )
Initial reaction is Webb is more talented than Wheating because of the range and being a high school prodigy.
The big thing that sticks out to me for Wheating is that he got to 3:30 quicker when you look at age, years of training and definately number of attempts and experience (first international race).
He may have more top end speed which would be a big factor.
webb wasn't in a 1500 race as beautifully paced as wheating's in his 1'43 year
i'd bet good money he wouda kicked off choge very soon after the bell for something in the 3'28s if he had
If this is the definition of talent then I would say Manzano is the most talented. Virtually untrained he ran 1:49 or 1:50 in hs as well as 4:05 or 06. That is HUGE talent.
Webb has run 1:43, 3:30, 3:43, 7:39, 8:11, 13:10, 27:34
what can Wheating run for a 10k?