Silas Kiplagat-Mystery Man

Obviously, I'm not of your idea, but I like your moderate way to introduce yours arguments (for me wrong) showing education and not stupid aggressivity (may be in Letsrun there are too many fans of Eminem...).

So, I try to answer to some your point.

a) About the car accident, sorry, but this is really one of the worst situations in the World. Not only the most part of roads in Kenya are very bad, but expecially there are a lot of cars not in order (many times brakes are an optional), too many drivers without license never going to driving school, and too many crazy drivers without any idea about risk for themselves and other people. I want to give you a short list of my top athletes or their relatives DEAD in car accidents :

Stephen Kipkorir (bronze medal in 1500m in OG Atlanta '96) in 2006 or 2007, together other 8 athletes of Army, on a military lorry falling down for 50m out of the road

David Lelei (this year in March) on the way to Nairobi on the car droven by Moses Tanui

The sun of Sammy Rono (coach in the management of Ricky Simms) together with other 12 soldiers, last year, against a big bus

The nephew of Mubarak Shami, in a car accident of 2 years ago, when there were 4 innocent people killed on a turn when the car was not able to reduce the speed

The sister of the wife of Joseph Cheromei (athlete able running 49 marathons with a PB of 2:10:06, now my main collaborator in Kenya) killed by the car of James Kwalia (driver Titus Mbishei, silver medal in WJCCCh 2009) kicked from behind by a lorry without brakes in Iten, one month ago (the car was thrown in the air, and landed 10 meters more far directly on a group of 4 ladies waiting on the side of the road a matato)

The brother of Thamer Ali Kamal (5:20 in 2000 steeple and 3:35.56 in 1500m, Kenyan name Thomas Kipkosgei) killed while was on his bike in a place where never there is traffic (Kapcherop) by a lorry that was not able to reduce the speed in a small rough road.

And many, many other had some accident provoking injuries that didn't allow them to train for long time, losing full seasons.

b) You must know the Kenyan mentality. When a runner is able to become a good athlete, winning some money, he becomes the referement for a lot of people : parents, relatives, friends, village. Since the normal mentality of Africans originary from the mountains, that is normally the place of birth of the most part of top runners, is TO LOOK FOR ASSISTANCE in case of any problem (and this is a behavior due to the fact that colonialist Countries NEVER had interest in giving them the instruments for solving their problems, in order to maintain power with them), all these people go to every good athletes asking their support (normally for money) for every type of problem. Therefore, top athletes are in trouble, because don't want to refuse their help (also because if they are able to help the village, become as kings in their area), but are too much busy with a lot of problems that become confused.

When an African is confused, the first reaction is to look around for finding some money "for tomorrow", forgetting training and any long term plan. The old culture was to arrive alive at the end of every day.

c) Due to this fact, a lot of time top athletes without any problem quit, without any reason, their training for long time, because, far from the competitions, in their mind is not a priority. But managers cannot wait too long : there are a lot of new athletes looking for the opportunity to compete in Europe or US, that also a top athlete, if out of the competitions for a while, is quickly replaced by another new.

d) As the number of athletes having the goal to run in the international circuit is very much higher than the possibilities given by the organisers, many of them train for a full season, without having any opportunity to go to Europe to compete (also in small meetings), and, if they at the end can have a chance, the most part of time can use it when already completely out of shape.

f) We European, and American people, must not forget that every African start WITH A COST OF ABOUT 1,500 USD of ticket, for going to compete in Europe or US. In middle distances, Africa has the athletes, not the competitions, that are in Europe or US. With the current situation, DOESN'T EXIST ANY ORGANISER PAYING 1500 USD FOR AN UNKNOWN ATHLETE, and also for top runners. The athletes must stay in Europe for more long time, ther organisers give, each one, a contribution for a part of the ticket, and after 4 competitions an athlete can have back the cost of his travel. But when they stay in Europe, have to pay some money for accommodation and food every day, and, with the current prizes, if you are not in top 4-5 every competitions (speaking about Road Races or top meetings), after one month you can accumulate a debt, not to earn some money for yourself.

g) If you, Kenyan athlete, have a debt with your manager paying ticket and accommodation, of course your manager has to give you a second chance for coming to Europe another time, in order to earn the money for paying your debt with him. But, many times, the second time the debt becomes bigger. At that point, the manager NEVER finds some solution for the athlete.

h) For that reason, in Kenya there are hundreds athlets of good level (and somebody can become a champion) asking for a manager, and, when the manager decides not to be interested in them, looking for another agent.

i) This is exactly what happened for Silas Kiplagat. Last year he won 3 races under 3'40". I spoke with the manager, but after 3 months nobody was able to find a ticket and an opportunity for competing on track : with 3'40" nobody in Europe is interested, and nobody wants to invest some money in that athlete, when already he has 10 athletes under 3'36". So, the only manager he found was a small manager from Nederland, having contacts with organiers of Road Races, and Silas ran 10 km in 28:00 in Tilburg, when his event is clearly something shorter (one question : how many people in Europe or US, 20 years old and specialists of 1500m, can run 28' flat in 10000 without specific preparation ? Or somebody can suppose Silas took EPO for his first competition on the Road, out of season and with a new manager that met him the first time in Europe ?).

This year we have a plan for running 1500 and 3000m, and the program from Moses Kiptanui was in that direction. Because we have good relations with the responsible of Prisons, we plan for him to run fast during Nationals. Only after running 3'34" in Nairobi, he was accepted in Monaco, thank to the strict relations between the manager (Gianni Demadonna) and the organiser (Jean Pierre Schoebel). But, if Silas had some problem in Nairobi and couldn't have that time, never could have the opportunity to run, jumping from a position out of top 100 in the World directly to the top.

l) If you know Kenya, you understand that there are no athletes knowing HOW to buy EPO or some drug (may be there is something not allowed in TRADITIONAL MEDICINE coming from trees and herbs, and for that reason I always say to my athletes to use, when sick, only medicines from laboratories, where are written the names of the components. This doesn't mean that, after going to Europe or US in some management, the management doesn't have the opportunity to give them some doping, that they don't know. But, because ALL the managers I know are not stupid, and cannot increase their income in significative way with the athletics of today supposing their athletes can run a little faster using doping (but remember that personally I have too many direct experiences of what athletes completely clean can arrive, that I don't believe blood doping can work with Kenyan top athletes, while I know that, in case of steroids, they can have some advantage increasing their muscular power), while well know how much they have to lose in case of being involved in some scandal with their athletes, there is no reason to do this.

At the end, the reason because Im sure the most part of athletes from East Africa are clean (expecially the top) is exactly the same because you think they can use to cheat for having more money : the athletes don't have any channel for buying drugs themselves, their managers don't have any interest, BECAUSE AT THE MOMENT THE MONEY ABOUT ATHLETICS (apart Marathon) IS VERY LITTLE.

At the end, the final point :

If is true that, during the last 4 years, the level of performances in middle distances (1500-10000m) went down, it's also true that in the same period the level of performances in HM and Marathon jumped in incredible way. In top 50 all time in HM there are, may be, 3-5 athletes before 2005, in full marathon no more than 10 before 2005.

So, there are two possibilities only :

a) If this is a period without EPO (this is your idea), people must quit to think that EPO can work for long distances, coming to my theory that I explained several times

b) Or, if you think that EPO is still working (every time there is a good result, some guy starts to speak about EPO again), thew fact that in middle distances the level is going down is due to the reasons I explained before.

a fair question wrote:

If you look at the traditional white middle to upper class american you will find that the majority would have the values of honesty taught in both home and school and you would not be able to (or certainly not expected, in fact you may be arrested if you tried) to pay off a police officer in order to get off or reduce a ticket. Obviously there will be exceptions in L.A. and perhaps tiny ass towns. I'm sure if you read the articles I linked you would see a very different thing happening in Kenya, a country with one race and a very strong culture.

Sprinters are a different breed and we have heard some pretty inside heads come out and talk about what is required to run under 9.9, and that is not limited to Americans.

.

You heard it here first, folks. White, upper and middle class Americans are in the majority just honest people! Sure wasn't them who've led us into multiple pointless wars and almost destroyed the global economic system, nope. Just honest, white, upper class american folks. Good folks.

There is no 'American Culture'! Nope. Nothing at all to be gained from studying culture in America, it's too fragmented. We're a melting pot!

Sprinters come from lower-class (which I am going to charitably assume you're using to mean poor) backgrounds! They're exposed to a lot of cheating and corruption, so they're more likely to cheat as a result. Not like those nice middle and upper class folks.

Good lord, you're a moron.

I assume everyone at the top is probably cheating. People have been cheating at sports as long as there have been sports, and the introduction of massive amounts of money for winning seems unlikely to change this. People watch drug cheats in the NFL all the time (Shawn Merriman comes to mind) and it doesn't affect their enjoyment. That's how I, as a fan, feel about track. It's a f***ing game, people. Lighten up.

a fair question wrote:

Why can't kenyans NOW beat kenyans from 1997???

Which of these is better

1997

112:39.74NR Daniel KomenKEN17 May 76170/551VDBruxelles22 Aug

212:41.86Haile GebrselassieETH18 Apr 73164/531WKZürich13 Aug

312:49.87Paul TergatKEN17 Jun 69183/613WKZürich13 Aug

412:52.39Salah HissouMAR16 Jan 72176/622GGalaRoma5 Jun

512:53.41Khalid BoulamiMAR7 Aug 69167/604WKZürich13 Aug

612:54.70NRDieter BaumannGER9 Feb 65178/625WKZürich13 Aug

712:55.94Thomas NyarikiKEN27 Sep 71170/621DNGStockholm7 Jul

812:56.29Paul KoechKEN25 Jun 69170/606WKZürich13 Aug

913:00.62Ismaïl SghyrMAR16 Mar 72168/503DNGStockholm7 Jul

1013:02.52David CheluleKEN7 Jul 77179/667WKZürich13 Aug

1113:03.00Moses KiptanuiKEN1 Oct 70175/602LiveNürnberg13 Jun

1213:04.74Paul BitokKEN26 Jun 70173/585DNGStockholm7 Jul

2005

112:40.18Kenenisa BekeleETH13 Jun 82160/541GazSaint-Denis1 Jul

212:50.22Eliud KipchogeKEN5 Nov 84167/521VDBruxelles26 Aug

312:50.25Abderrahim GoumriMAR21 May 76168/592VDBruxelles26 Aug

412:52.29Isaac SongokKEN25 Apr 84170/541GGalaRoma8 Jul

512:52.80Gebregziabher GebremariamETH10 Sep 84178/563GGalaRoma8 Jul

612:53.66Augustine ChogeKEN21 Jan 87162/534GGalaRoma8 Jul

712:55.26Benjamin LimoKEN23 Aug 74178/653VDBruxelles26 Aug

812:55.58Abebe DinkesaETH6 Mar 84169/552GazSaint-Denis1 Jul

912:55.85Boniface SongokKEN25 Dec 80172/574VDBruxelles26 Aug

1012:56.13Craig MottramAUS18 Jun 80188/722Norw UnionLondon22 Jul

1112:56.24Dejene BerhanuETH12 Nov 80182/645GGalaRoma8 Jul

1212:58.43Boniface KipropUGA12 Oct 85167/536GGalaRoma8 Jul

1312:58.58NRMoukhled Al-OutaibiKSA20 Jun

76174/671r1KBCHeusden23 Jul

1412:59.03Tariku BekeleETH21 Jan 87160/524GazSaint-Denis1 Jul

1512:59.29Bernard LagatUSA12 Dec 74175/611ISTAFBerlin4 Sep

1612:59.67Hicham BellaniMAR15 Sep 79180/642r1KBCHeusden23 Jul

1712:59.79NRLeonard MucheruBRN13 Jun 78182/716GazSaint-Denis1 Jul

1813:00.25Markos GenetiETH30 May 84183/617GazSaint-Denis1 Jul

1913:01.06Shadrack KosgeiKEN24 Nov 843r1KBCHeusden23 Jul

2013:01.55Sammy KipketerKEN29 Sep 81166/523ISTAFBerlin4 Sep

Czech guy wrote:

No one is saying that people born at altitude need EPO to run fast times, but it would still make them faster still if they did take them.

One important note: Kenyans don't have elevated hemoglobine levels. This denies the traditional "wisdom" that they benefit from training in high altitude. But they may have higher hemoglobine concentrations and higher VO2 max. values than Nilotic people from lowlands, though. (Nobody has compared it yet, but the values of many lowland African groups are quite low by European standards.)

Further, research done in Ethiopia has showed that local natives possess a very specific adaptation to living at altitude: Their hemoglobine concentrations are only marginally higher than in Europeans, but the saturation of hemoglobine by oxygen is nearly 100%. This adaptation can however hardly bring any fundamental benefit at sea level.

Right, some of this is a bit technical. It is still the case, is it not, that even those athletes born at altitude would still benefit from using EPO and running at sea level?

As much as I respect the opinions of "ukathleticscoach", I don't see how his claim that Kenyan and other African athletes born at altitude "don't need EPO" is correct. Surely most African athletes (as a generalisation) born at altitude have an advantage over their European rivals. If the European then takes EPO it will bring them up to the African's level or surpass them. But if the African then uses EPO as well, then the "natural" advantage they had is restored once more?

You are not seriously going to associate politicians or corporate CEOs with the average middle to upper class american are you?

The truth is, lying, cheating and other crimes occur most at the two extremes, amongst the poor and the extremely wealthy. The difference is 30-50% of the population is poor in the U.S. and 1% is extremeley wealthy so in terms of the numbers of people who lie, cheat and steal without any real ethical conflict there are a lot more poor/lower class people doing it. That doesn't make it any more wrong, it just means there are more doing it.

Why do people get so sensitive about this stuff, look up statistics, look up demographics. It is what it is.

Mr. Canova,

A very fair and logical post and a very compelling argument.

Out of respect for you and your athletes I am content to let my opinions of what may have occured with some top runners in the late 90's rest and wish you and your athletes success.

chet wrote:

Czech guy wrote:

I am only saying that without EPO, they couldn't get under 3:32. Think about it.

Czech guy later wrote: A Kenyan running 3:29 25 years after the first European reached this mark is something I can accept without hesitation.

Czech guy, you are an idiot. So what are you saying? That Kenyans used to need EPO to run under 3:32, and now they don't?

You clearly can't grasp what he is saying at all!

He's saying that from historical trends, 3:29 seems to be close to what we can expect a man from any nation to run. In the early 80's we had Coe, Cram (Europeans) & Aouita & Marree (Africans) running sub 3:30. This was long before EPO existed.

He then argues that over time, many "white Europeans" drifted away from the sport (which is quite reasonable with the monopoly of football that has emerged in the last 15 years, onset of the internet, etc) which left fewer western athletes from which one may emerge running the sorts of times they had run in the 80's.

In the last few seasons we have had people like Choge and Kiplagat again running 3:29.

But then we have this period in between where people were running 3:26's with 53 second last laps and looking hardly winded at the end. Czech guy doesn't even seem to be saying that it's only Africans that were taking EPO. I would suggest there are examples of white athletes too (generally those who worked with particular coaches/agents) who ran ridiculous times in this period as well. BUT, as the majority of the world class athletes taking part in the middle/long distances in the late 90's were African, then of course it would look like most of those who benefitted from its undetected use would therefore be Africans.

It doesn't matter what people say in defence of athletes from this period (late 90's/early 00's), it is undeniable (shown by Czech guy's stats and "fair question's" lists above, that something strange happened at this time due to EPO.

The arguments that Africans wouldn't cheat, don't need to cheat or are honest poor people who have had to run all the time since being small children, is quite simply patronising and reinforces negative stereotyping, not to mention incredibly naive.

Another thing which many seem to take for granted, is the idea that after 2000, all times/marks set in the middle distances are legitimate because there was a test! It's nonsense to use this as evidence that those who achieved times as fast after 2000 as they did before it, couldn't have been using EPO.

Marion Jones admitted taking it, but always passed the tests for it. Likewise Ramzi. Anyone who thinks he only started with CERA in 08 after running 3:29 in 2006 off a ridiculously fast opening pace is an idiot. In that same race Kipchirchir Komen also ran low 3:29 off a 52 first lap. In fact he broke 3:31.0 7 times in 2005 & 2006 and run under 3:32.0 10 times in the same time period. Since then he's only managed to break 3:32 three times (3:31.49, 3:31.75 & 3:31.91) in the past 4 seasons, despite even now only being 25! So, at the ages of 20 & 21 he ran sub 3:32.0 TEN times, including 7 times in 2005 at 20. Yet since turning 21, he has failed to run within 2 secs of his pb and had trouble breaking 3:32 in far more reasonably paced races! Perhaps his dramatic loss in form was also due to a car accident like Ngeny?

For a long period after 2000 there were still athletes getting away with using EPO. No test is full proof, the users will always be ahead of the testers and there isn't the same thorough testing procedures in place across all countries. As long as you take it at the the right time, have advanced scientific back up; and poor African athletes would have that from their rich European agents; and use some common sense, then it's more likely you'd get away with it than not.

Perhaps in the last few years, now that athletes know their samples can be kept indefinitely (only introduced in 2008) in light of future advances in testing, the number of those using has dropped. Having said this, I'm still in little doubt that some are still willing to take the risk.

You cant compare kenyan's who trains 3 times a day 6 days a week with someone people who trains twice or once a day/week..No way!!Its hard work,talent, and commitment.

I believe Renato and I also agree with you.

I believe Renato in what he says and I highly doubt he'd spend the time and risk coming on here to say something that could turn out to be contradictory and condemning if he wasn't of a solid honest foundation on what he states.

That said, you have brought up some very good points and I largely agree. Having samples kept indefinitely is a big point and we have NOT SEEN ANYTHING under:

3:29

3:48

7:28

12:50

And only one man under 26:50

SINCE as you mentioned it was announced in 2008.

Keep in mind the WRs are

3:26.0

3:43

7:20

12:37

26:17

And in history runners have run under

3:29.0 - 29 times

3:48 - 31 times

7:28 - 20 times

12:50 - 20 times

26:50 - 32 times

Considering that the majority of the times are E. Africans, if there were no PEDs involved then fedrerations, agents and coaches need to seriously be asking, what are they doing wrong now? Renato has addressed some of the points for certain, but the numbers to seem to tell a story of their own.

Hard to say with certainty, and I certainly hope Renato keeps fighting the good fight and sharing his wealth of knowledge on here.

Run the numbers on the half marathon and marathon.

Credit Limit, you are obviously a buffoon. Czech guy wrote that "without EPO, they couldn't get under 3:32." So now he has no problem accepting (ostensibly) a clean 3:29 from a Kenyan. IF that is the case, then he has to explain why he thinks they could not get under 3:32 without EPO, and now they can. As far as the pablum you posit concerning 3:29 being the limit a man from any nation can run, this is speculative bullshit. Are you morons unable to accept the possibility that you might have a smaller penis than somebody else without crying out that the comparatively well endowed are using drugs?

Thanks. I would have said the same, only in other words.

As I showed in my analysis, the times of white runners dropped in mid 80's, yet Africans didn't improve much - despite the mythological crap that some posters on this forum repeat over and over again. Middle distances stagnated for the whole decade (1986-1995) and times in the 3-10 km experienced resurgence only after 1990, but the times still weren't of superhuman calibre and didn't deviate from previous trends. This is why we would normally expect, because Africans are built for the 3-10 km, not for 800/1500 m. When top 800/1500 m runners are ca. 180 cm tall, do you think that Kenya (young males: 171 cm), Morocco (173 cm) or Algeria (172 cm) would be producing middle distance champions in droves? Only Sudanese reach European body size, but they started to compete only recently, and they are often terribly skinny and unusable for any sport. In fact, I think it was also the secular height increase of Europeans during the previous decades that contributed to their marked separation from the African competition.

The sudden explosion of times in 1995-96, in all distance events, in the whole Africa - Morocco, Kenya, Ethiopia, and even Algeria - is such a strong and clear argument for EPO use that it is actually not a matter of debate among sane people. Or does someone believe that some magical training methods suddenly reached all these countries exactly in the same year and their runners improved over a single winter by the same margin like their predecessors over the previous decade? And it was not 3 seconds - which Mr Canova suggests as a possible improvement after the application of his spectacular "high intensity training" in the 1500 m - , but whole 6 seconds between 1995-2001!

Curiously, when we look at the marathon, the trend was practically identical, only with a minor delay: Between 1983-1996 this distance stagnated, yet in 1997 the times suddenly started to drop dramatically (do you remember that Brazilian guy?) So the reason of the miraculous improvement was the same (EPO). And in the recent years, the improvement rather further accelerated.

Mr Canova suggests that this is due to track runners concentrating on the marathon. But he doesn't think seriously that even 800/1500/3000 m steeple m runners suddenly started to run the marathon? And if he wanted to argue that track runners lose interest in running, I would like to remark that during the 15 years track events were developing in an extremely weird way that has no parallel in the previous history of running. It is true that from time to time, some exceptionally talented runner set a world record that was completely out of reach of his contemporaries (e.g. Clarke). Yet his time also showed limits of human potential and other runners followed him within 10-15 years. But nothing of this sort happens today. Some "natural wonders" from Africa have run exceptional times and one would expect that if human abilities lie so high, we should already observe quite a few guys, who would be within the same calibre. Yet they didn't approach them and the performances of the world's elite are actually falling down, 15-25 years back, which has never happened before, and not even in all distances simultaneously. Even in mid 80's, when white guys left track, they were quickly substituted by other ambitious nations, who at least kept the performances on the same level.

I don't feel to be qualified to express to the current situation in the marathon, because I am not familiar with drug testing in road races. Obviously, Susan Chepkemei could comfortably dope during her stay in USA in 2004.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=2382243

It is possible that we will be able to evaluate today's rapid improvent in the marathon only with a certain offset - similarly like we can now do it in track events. But the recent cases of Tanui and Gemechu show that EPO didn't disappear from road races. It is still there. And it is possible that just the high financial incentives are worthy of the risk, while those on track are not.

chet wrote:

Credit Limit, you are obviously a buffoon. Czech guy wrote that "without EPO, they couldn't get under 3:32." So now he has no problem accepting (ostensibly) a clean 3:29 from a Kenyan. IF that is the case, then he has to explain why he thinks they could not get under 3:32 without EPO, and now they can. As far as the pablum you posit concerning 3:29 being the limit a man from any nation can run, this is speculative bullshit. Are you morons unable to accept the possibility that you might have a smaller penis than somebody else without crying out that the comparatively well endowed are using drugs?

Did you know that in 1956, people could not get under 3:40?

a fair question wrote:

Considering that the majority of the times are E. Africans, if there were no PEDs involved then fedrerations, agents and coaches need to seriously be asking, what are they doing wrong now? Renato has addressed some of the points for certain, but the numbers to seem to tell a story of their own.

Is it that unlikely for a slump in times to occur? Like how the 90s U.S. high school scene was slow, but the 70s and 80s and 2000s were very fast. Just the way things happen. You have up years and down years.

Yes, but we're discussing a time period when people could run under 3:30 and you have stated Kenyans could not get under 3:32 because they don't have the bodies for it...(and then they discovered EPO)...Now you have stated that they can run 3:32 without EPO...and you have NO explanation...

You have stated that Kenyans can currently run 3:29 without EPO, but could not back when others could, because they are genetically disadvantaged. That is your position, Czech guy.

Another note to Credit Limit: The seeming resurgence of white distance runners in late 90's was very probably due to B/C-class competitors using EPO, too, similarly like Africans. Their performances namely grew and fell in the same time like in Africans. Portuguese, Spaniards and Russian women - all fall into this category.

I would also like to remark that even before 1985, the participation rate of whites in track was rather meagre. Although athletics is notoriously presented as one of the most popular sports in the world, the trends, times and relative success of other ethnicities suggest that white males don't share this opinion.

In fact, in mid 80's the only distance with really top participation was the 1500 m/mile - undoubtedly due to the high historical prestige. Already in the 800 m you would encounter a very unlikely ethnic composition from the physiological perspective, which suggests that this distance was hugely underdeveloped. The "lazy" line of development of the 800 m - so strongly contrasting with the linear line in the 1500 m - only supports it. And in the 400 m, whites practically stopped running seriously in late 60's.

I always wondered, where white guys with the 400/800/1500 m make up disappeared and why they don't run. Recently I looked at data of West European Olympians from Peking 2008 and I tried to identify individuals with measurements of 400 m- and distance runners. Credit Limit is right that many now play soccer, but much more potential distance champions now care about a different sport: They sit on the bike.

clunker wrote:

a fair question wrote:

Considering that the majority of the times are E. Africans, if there were no PEDs involved then fedrerations, agents and coaches need to seriously be asking, what are they doing wrong now? Renato has addressed some of the points for certain, but the numbers to seem to tell a story of their own.

Is it that unlikely for a slump in times to occur? Like how the 90s U.S. high school scene was slow, but the 70s and 80s and 2000s were very fast. Just the way things happen. You have up years and down years.

The point is that the growth and fall of times is practically identical in all distances. Like if all runners colluded in secret that their times will quickly explode in 1996, later they won't run fast in 2000, but they will run fast in 2004-2005 and then again much slower in 2008. I explained the unlikelihood ond weirdness of this development in my post above, after all.

well, the statement that EPO does not help athletes is utter nonsense. However, whether the East African runners are using is a separate question.