If I may lend a South African perspective.
The IAAF's latest announcement has managed to say something without saying anything - in effect, we are none the wiser than we were 24 hours ago.
In fact, the latest reports here in SA, which haven't yet reached the global media, is that the statements made that Semenya will keep the medal have in fact been made WITHOUT IAAF APPROVAL. That is, the IAAF had not yet signed off on it, and our government (in their infinite wisdom) decided to release the statement anyway. So earlier today, they convened a hastily arranged press conference, where in effect, they said "we meant to say that we HOPE to reach agreement", rather than that they had.
This aside, I don't think Semenya will lose that medal, no matter what. And the IAAF CAN announce this now, before announcement of test results, because those test results do not affect their actions in anyway. Even if the results show an advantage, which I suspect they have done, the IAAF will still not strip Semenya of any times or titles. Whether she's going to be allowed to run in the future is another issue, but the history will remain that - history.
The problem, you have to understand, is that here in SA, there is a very, very strong cultural and political feeling that is saying to the IAAF that you "have no right to tell us what gender our athlete is". This is simply a consequence of culture, and then our esteemed politicians have climbed all over it.
The situation now, I have it on good authority, is that hte IAAF will not make any decision until Semenya has decided what medical path she wishes to follow. She has a few options:
She can choose surgery, to correct the presence of these testes. If she does this, then the IAAF are effective absolved of doing anything, because any advantage she has will disappear, and she can run as a woman, without any questions being asked. This would mean that the IAAF never have to cross that sticky bridge about whether she can compete again. They are no doubt praying very hard that this happens!
She could also choose not to have surgery, and then the ball will be in the IAAF's court. And dare I say it, we will see a repeat of oscar Pistorius, where it cannot be proved beyond doubt that there is an advantage. This could become very messy.
But in terms of awarding a second gold, and a whole new set of medals, the IAAF can't do that, because they'd be showing their hand in terms of what advantage she has. They have to wait. They have to wait until she decides what she is going to do - if she chooses surgery, they may award the medals quietly, and hope this is forgotten. if she doesn't, then it will all come to a head again next year.
So it's not over by a long way, but the key point is that the IAAF can't act until they know Semenya's next move, because her actions will impact on what they need to do. And if they can get away with not having to commit to decisions, they will. This whole thing, thanks to our politicians, has really battered the IAAF....