booble wrote:
[quote]
I'm afraid your wrong there. IU's course may be harder than ISU but 45 seconds is overkill. It's a course where you can build a lot of momentum during the race. I personally think it is very overrated on difficulty, and I'm not very impressed at all by IU's performance there.
I think if they were worried about impressing you, or anybody, they would have run 50 minutes down the road at the Pre-Nationals instead of having a low-key meet on their home course idiot.
Is Minnesota supposed to be good? I agree mead will win and Blankenship has top 10, who else though?
Minnesota was at Pre-nats and here are the results.
Mead 23:49
Blankenship 24:11
Barrett 24:39
Gagnon 25:00
Hilson 25:51
Olson 25:59
Burkstrand 26:24
McFarland did not run in this meet...
Mead is a stud for sure and Blankenship would be having a fantastic day inside top 10. There seems to be a drop back to maybe 25/35th from there. That won't beat Wisconsin or IU and maybe not Michigan!
After reading the letsrun preview of this meet, I forget how much talent Wisconsin has stockpiled! Wonder of Indiana can at least run 2nd (tons more talent than anyone else after Wisconsin). After these 2, it will be a battle of 3-5 runners with Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, OSU, and PSU all having a good 1-2 punch.
As a side, what happened to Great Lakes that it will only send Wisc/IU to Nationals? Butler/Michigan are the only hopefuls to get 2nd auto because IU knows they can get 3rd and still go!
Michigan may very well steal a victory this year, a year when they have seemed to make the least noise during the season. Illness struck them hard for the early season meets, so their showings may not resemble that of a Big 10 champ, but i'm still calling for an upset. Skipping Pre-Nats may allow them to have their best races when it counts for once! How good can their heralded freshman trio be? that will be the key.
Quote "Michigan may very well steal a victory this year, a year when they have seemed to make the least noise during the season. Illness struck them hard for the early season meets, so their showings may not resemble that of a Big 10 champ, but i'm still calling for an upset. Skipping Pre-Nats may allow them to have their best races when it counts for once! How good can their heralded freshman trio be? that will be the key."
So if we take the Letsrun data for "place returner" from the Big 10 meet last year, it would look like this:
Wisconsin: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 12th, 16th = 43 points for 5 returners
Michigan: 4th, 7th, 11th, 20th = 42 point for 4 returners
What leap of faith are you taking that gets Michigan less points than Wisconsin? Show us how you arrived at your assumption.
Michigan (2008 - 2nd) In 2009 - 9th Wisconsin adidas
Blacklaws, Brendon (New Zealand - 1:51, 3:51 1,500, 8:24 3,000)
Bowden, Dallas (New Zealand - 1:53, 3:46 1,500, 8:21 3,000)
Christmas, Peter (33rd Big 10 2008, 20th returner)
Fellows, Brandon (18th Big 10 2008, 11th returner, 243rd NCAA 2008)
Forys, Craig (12th Big 10 2008, 7th returner, 137th NCAA 2008)
McNamara, Sean (6th Big 10 2008, 4th returner, 77th NCAA 2008)
Ornelas, Zach (freshman - 4:13, 5:53 2,000 steeple, 9:11, 9:17 3,000 steeple)
Tyler, Dan (freshman - 4:18)
Michigan stealing a victory?? I will give them major props for nabbing a top 3 spot. Beating Indiana or Wisconsin is realistically out of their reach no matter how many guys they bring out of the woodwork.
Great Lakes is way way down this year, but will probably get three teams in. Butler will probably makes nationals with two points from the Notre Dame Invite. All they have to do is beat michigan. If they get beat that could be an easy push in for a team like MI who doesn't really deserve to go.
Wisconsin is expecting a tough team from INDIANA @ big 10s.
Just wait til Ahmed runs----he is hungry..
How did you get there wrote:
Quote "Michigan may very well steal a victory this year, a year when they have seemed to make the least noise during the season. Illness struck them hard for the early season meets, so their showings may not resemble that of a Big 10 champ, but i'm still calling for an upset. Skipping Pre-Nats may allow them to have their best races when it counts for once! How good can their heralded freshman trio be? that will be the key."
So if we take the Letsrun data for "place returner" from the Big 10 meet last year, it would look like this:
Wisconsin: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 12th, 16th = 43 points for 5 returners
Michigan: 4th, 7th, 11th, 20th = 42 point for 4 returners
What leap of faith are you taking that gets Michigan less points than Wisconsin? Show us how you arrived at your assumption.
Michigan (2008 - 2nd) In 2009 - 9th Wisconsin adidas
Blacklaws, Brendon (New Zealand - 1:51, 3:51 1,500, 8:24 3,000)
Bowden, Dallas (New Zealand - 1:53, 3:46 1,500, 8:21 3,000)
Christmas, Peter (33rd Big 10 2008, 20th returner)
Fellows, Brandon (18th Big 10 2008, 11th returner, 243rd NCAA 2008)
Forys, Craig (12th Big 10 2008, 7th returner, 137th NCAA 2008)
McNamara, Sean (6th Big 10 2008, 4th returner, 77th NCAA 2008)
Ornelas, Zach (freshman - 4:13, 5:53 2,000 steeple, 9:11, 9:17 3,000 steeple)
Tyler, Dan (freshman - 4:18)
Left off that list is their best runner of the season - Bobby April (18yo soph).
Last year Michigan moved into the lead 2km to go, but bombed at the end. That rarely occurs that late in a scored meet. They obviously miss timed their attack on the difficult michigan course. Their best race was by far the pre-nats from two weeks earlier.
Wisco is the desrved favorites, but with a better timed season, and sound racing strategy (having run at PSU ealier in the year will be a big advantage), Michigan is by no means out of the picture.
use to msu wrote:
IU knows they can get 3rd and still go!
How is that? They have only one win I can see -- Iona. One win may not be good enough. Shoulda run pre-nats if they think they could be 3rd.
Ok I guess. I was at the meet last year and didn't see anything that resembled "Michigan moved into the lead 2km to go" and just finished watching the video on youtube to refresh my memory. I didn't see anything that they bombed at all, besides I'd be surprised that with the gaps between the Mich runners, that they all bombed at once in the same meet at the same time. Explain to me how they bombed, and who it was that bombed. To me they ran pretty steady the whole race.
As far as the new guy goes, where do you predict that he finishes? Higher than McNamara? Top 3?
wait wrote:
use to msu wrote:IU knows they can get 3rd and still go!
How is that? They have only one win I can see -- Iona. One win may not be good enough. Shoulda run pre-nats if they think they could be 3rd.
That does seem dumb to have not run Pre-nats, I assumed they had more wins than just 1. Not smart on their part.
Wisconsin - easily and will redshirt ahmed
Indiana - easily 2nd
Michigan - should've raced somewhere except a bunch of small meets. Still a shame they won't win this year because Wisconsin is as down as they will be for some time.
Minnesota - Race winner in Mead and Blankenship will be top 7
OSU - Best of the worse
Iowa - Freshman of the year in Thode
Illinois
Penn State
MSU
Purdue - bad, very bad
Ahmed will suit up oon nov.2
Thode won't keep up with Ahmed. Ahmed will be Freshman of the year.
How did you get there wrote:
Quote "Michigan may very well steal a victory this year, a year when they have seemed to make the least noise during the season. Illness struck them hard for the early season meets, so their showings may not resemble that of a Big 10 champ, but i'm still calling for an upset. Skipping Pre-Nats may allow them to have their best races when it counts for once! How good can their heralded freshman trio be? that will be the key."
So if we take the Letsrun data for "place returner" from the Big 10 meet last year, it would look like this:
Wisconsin: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 12th, 16th = 43 points for 5 returners
Michigan: 4th, 7th, 11th, 20th = 42 point for 4 returners
What leap of faith are you taking that gets Michigan less points than Wisconsin? Show us how you arrived at your assumption.
Michigan (2008 - 2nd) In 2009 - 9th Wisconsin adidas
Blacklaws, Brendon (New Zealand - 1:51, 3:51 1,500, 8:24 3,000)
Bowden, Dallas (New Zealand - 1:53, 3:46 1,500, 8:21 3,000)
Christmas, Peter (33rd Big 10 2008, 20th returner)
Fellows, Brandon (18th Big 10 2008, 11th returner, 243rd NCAA 2008)
Forys, Craig (12th Big 10 2008, 7th returner, 137th NCAA 2008)
McNamara, Sean (6th Big 10 2008, 4th returner, 77th NCAA 2008)
Ornelas, Zach (freshman - 4:13, 5:53 2,000 steeple, 9:11, 9:17 3,000 steeple)
Tyler, Dan (freshman - 4:18)
They missed by about a second of being beaten by a DIII school (UW-LaCrosse) and finishing 10th.
Case closed. Michigan finishes 3rd or 4th. Forys isn't running:
Not running because he isn't in shape to help. Too bad for Ronnie, he didn't run a meet before opening at Big 10's his freshman year and placing inside top 10. Regardless, everyone is running for 2nd behind Wisconsin!
Lets discuss Freshman candidates of the year.
Thode is at or near the top of the list, but what about Mav Darling to be a challenger in this battle too? At the Wisc invite, these two were 7 seconds apart with Thode at 23:55 and Darling at 24:02. I'll give Darling the nod at Big Tens this Sunday. Are there others to consider?
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
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