Connecting the economy to track and field

Yes, but is the market on drugs?

The market over corrected itself very badly early in 2009. This isn't really a rally as much as it is a return to sanity.

Precious Roy wrote:

The market over corrected itself very badly early in 2009. This isn't really a rally as much as it is a return to sanity.

Not going to argue that point (because I always said it was over sold when it was so low). I'm just pointing out that someone outside of track and field mentioned a track and field star. Not every day that it happens.

So it is rallying at an unsustainable rate, and is overdue for a downward correction. At least I hope...

LLCJ wrote:

So it is rallying at an unsustainable rate, and is overdue for a downward correction. At least I hope...

Unsustainable rate? Absolutely. If it kept that up for another couple of years, anyone within 10 years of retiring probably could (assuming they had saved enough and then invested in more conservative vehicles). Whether it's due for a correction is debatable. Most are saying that it's just back up where it should be now, and many are saying the S&P 500 still has another 200 points to go, but then there are some who say it's headed back down to challenge March 6 lows. I find it hard to believe that we could in the near term (without another crisis) head back to the March lows, but I could see a pull back. As always though, being 16 years away from retirement, it matters not to me what happened in the short term. I just don't care.

Flagpole wrote:

Check out this quote:

'"Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates, who notes that the current rally is the strongest ever. Since hitting its closing low of 676 on March 9, the S&P 500 (SPX) has risen 0.31% a day on average, he says. That is three times faster than the previous fastest recovery in 1982, which averaged a 0.12% per day rise. "This is the Usain Bolt of markets," Birinyi says. "We just blew through the records."'

It was here -

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/10/pf/market_rally_last.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2009091014

FIRSTLY, this particular quote connects the MARKET and track and field, not the "economy" and T&F as per the subject line. Big difference.

SECONDLY, there are some prescient words of wisdom from the beloved Jeremy Grantham: "Even so, Grantham thinks the index "can go quite a lot further in the next two or three months." He says the recent rally has not been based on fundamentals. Instead, the government's stimulus plan and bailouts of banks and carmakers artificially inflated sectors of the economy.

Grantham likes to compare today's market rise with the 1930 rally that followed the crash of 1929. That 47% surge came without bank bailouts and stimulus spending. "If you turn on the moral-hazard juice and stimulus, which we did this time, [the market] is entitled to do a whole lot more than 47%," he says.

Grantham thinks the S&P could rise to 1130 by year-end. But his longer-term view is cautious. He warns that the market may again fall below its March low before resuming tepid growth. Grantham advises buying U.S. blue chips for what he predicts to be "seven lean years'' for stocks."

THIRDLY, yes, the market is on drugs. And the Federal Reserve and the government are peddling them like a Colombian crime czar.

FOURTHLY, as I've said, I too beleieve the market goes higher from here, even if in fits and starts, because the positivity isn't yet PALPABLE enough. But, we will get there. We are in the eye of the hurricane, and no one can be certain when or where the other side hits.

FIFTHLY, no one cares that you don't care about the next seven years and use flawed arithmetic averaging in your compounding. I DO care about the coming dislocation. But I can't say when it will happen. GS, credit spreads (junk spreads are widening BTW), the dollar, and precious metals... there are your four horsemen right there. That's all you need to know.

flagpole is a dips**t

who referrs to the stock market as the economy?

idiot

1) I was being generic using "economy". The markets still are an economic factor (people profit take when there's a spike and then spend that money, hence helping the economy). But, technically of course the economy and the markets are different things.

2) Yep, Jeremy Grantham has come down from his stance of a few months ago when he said the next 5-7 years would show better-than-average stock market returns. That's a big shift for him from better than average to lean. I wonder in 7 years which quote he will try to attribute to himself? Seems he's setting himself up to be right either way. On this subject though, I'd be surprised to see the DOW challenge the March lows again, but if they do and the gains are small the next 7 years, I can live with that. I'm not retiring in 7 years nor do I need big gains ever from this point on to fund my expected retirement lifestyle.

3) Point taken about the market being on drugs, and I agree to a point. This is one of the reasons I said the market would go up again and SOON back in early 2009. A pullback would not surprise me, but again, a DOW of 6400 again would. BUT, even if that happens, it's no big deal for people who are long-term investors. I'll just acquire and acquire and acquire. I was hoping the market would stay low for longer than it did anyway, but sadly I knew it wouldn't.

4) You are correct that we WILL get there (meaning a thriving economy and strong market). I don't care how long it takes, but it surely won't take 20 years for the DOW to get to 10,000 again as was said to me in another thread back in March by another poster (whom I could name but choose not to; and no, it is of course NOT you Sagarin; that's for those who don't know).

5) I don't care if people don't care how I feel about the next 7 years. I just simply give my opinion on such things. Long term investors should follow my lead. I do disagree though with your four horsemen.

i HATE to break it to you, but haphazardly throwing in CAPS for EMPHASIS during your ad infinitum RANTS doesn't bring back all that money you LOST.

markets will tank in October.

Comex Gold/Silver derivatives contracts to collapse. Comex default. Derivatives underwriters AIG, and Derivatives big dogs JPM, GS, MS, C and BAC to be hit the hardest. Likely at least a few will go under.

Markets to retest lows. Middle East War. Dollar devaluation, all before Xmas.

Don't listen to Flag Pole, he just wants your money so he can have more.

Notice the prick posted this on 9/11 too.

What a prick. He just wants your money. F*** em.