I got that quote from the LetsRun article analyzing Ritz performance. The author of the article was arguing that Ritz should still focus on the marathon because that is where he has the best chance to medal.
I take it the writer isn't 70 or 80 years old and that he is effectively saying an American born runner will probably not medal for at least another 30 years.
Do you agree or disagree with that? and why?
I think its a little over cynical. I totally understand that Ritz' AR was not really a real race and that in a worlds or olympic race, the Africans are not going to do Ritz a favor and kill themselves trying to go at world record pace. In fact I still am not sure Ritz is even better than the 3rd best 5K runner in America
Nevertheless, I think Ritz showed the way how an American could win. If he can sort of lie in the weeds by sticking close to the leaders with gas in the tank, its conceivable an American could have the closing speed to sneak in for a medal.
It just strikes me that once you get past Bekele and a small handful of other East Africans, the closing speed of many of them is not that great. A lot of them seem to rely exclusively on their incredible endurance base and the ability to sustain long drives that kill off any American born runner long before they have any chance to use whatever kick they may have. But Ritz is showing that can be overcome.
Moreover, as several other Americans emerge who can close in at 27:00 or 13:00, Americans could be able to work as a team in a big race which would be a big help.
I could envision that with a combination of a peak inspiring performance by an American, along with some luck and an off day by a couple of the top East Africans, a medal could be won. And that is something that seems bound to happen if the American runners keep improving as they are and they run enough big races over the years.
Am I wrong on that assessment?