Evan Jager will be the next American to break 13 minutes**Mark My Words!!

what's revolutionary about being 20+ seconds off the wr in he 5k?

noble5000 wrote:

I think we can all finally agree that the American distance running revolution has arrived.

That has nothing to do with it.

Check your history, aside from the lone ranger Bob Kennedy, the 90's were a pathetic time for American distance running. The tide has been slowly turning for the last decade, and now the results should be clear:

Two guys under 13:00, and bunch more capable in the near future. Three women under 4:00. A white guy running 2:06 in the marathon. And more depth than we've ever had in history, by far.

Considering how far we've come in the pro ranks - and the dozens high schoolers running times that a decade ago only a few could do - I would absolutely repeat we are seeing a distance running revolution in this country.

noble5000 wrote:

Two guys under 13:00, and bunch more capable in the near future. Three women under 4:00. A white guy running 2:06 in the marathon. And more depth than we've ever had in history, by far.

Yes, the Russian team of 2008 was fantastic. Oh wait, you're talking about the US team of 2009.

Lets wait until we see tangible results (i.e. the people who have the potential to great things on the world secene actually do great things on the world scene) to declare a revolution. Right now we've got a couple of guys finishing 6-8th place in world champsionships/olympics running 20 seconds off the wr in the 5k and more than a minute off the world record in the 10k. and some good womens 1500m runners who are competitive on the world scene.

noble5000 wrote:

That has nothing to do with it.

Check your history, aside from the lone ranger Bob Kennedy, the 90's were a pathetic time for American distance running. The tide has been slowly turning for the last decade, and now the results should be clear:

Two guys under 13:00, and bunch more capable in the near future. Three women under 4:00. A white guy running 2:06 in the marathon. And more depth than we've ever had in history, by far.

Considering how far we've come in the pro ranks - and the dozens high schoolers running times that a decade ago only a few could do - I would absolutely repeat we are seeing a distance running revolution in this country.

Jager is not a 5k runner - he is a miler.

His running form is not efficient enough to be a 5Ker.

Evan, focus on the mile...with a few select 800's thrown in.

Also, whoever compared Jager's running form to John Walker is being insulting....to John Walker.

revolution? wrote:

Lets wait until we see tangible results (i.e. the people who have the potential to great things on the world secene actually do great things on the world scene) to declare a revolution.

Since you were unimpressed with everything else, I assume you are referring to the Olympics and World Championships.

Is Kara Goucher medaling in the 10k in Osaka not a great thing on the world scene? What about Matt Tegenkamp, who was .04 off a medal?

Is Shalane Flanagan medaling in the 10k in Beijing not a great thing on the world scene?

Two American guys in the top 10 in the olympic marathon, one of whom is sub-60 for the half and the other now sub-13 for 5k?

What about Rowbury's bronze in the berlin 1500? Three Americans in the men's 5k final, and three americans in the women's 15 final?

Considering we had basically none of these results in the last two decades, I'd say these performances are part of a new revolution in American distance running.

What the hell is wrong with people that sub-13:00 isn’t good enough? A few weeks ago, it would have been, “Come talk to me when an American breaks 13:00,” and now two of them have, and in the process lowered the generally accepted, “good race for an American,” standard from 13:10-13:15, wherein Teg was the great white hope, to 12:59-13:05. And all this “still 20 seconds off the WR” junk? Tell me who isn’t off by 20 seconds? Including KB? Or did he run a 12:41 this season I wasn’t aware of? It’s spite for spite’s sake, at this point, to not give credit to the fact that American distance running is seriously headed in a new direction on the shoulders of Hall, Ritz, and Teg, not to mention Rupp (amongst a few others) who was everyone’s golden boy until Ritz’s 27:22 (which isn’t to say Rupp isn’t still a golden boy). And to clear things up, only two runners ever have been in Bekele’s league at 5k/10k: Bekele and Geb. That doesn’t make everyone else slow, and it certainly doesn’t diminish the stunning achievements of American distance running over the last two weeks.

talk to me when we win gold medals in the olympics and break world records

So, by your rationale, there have only been one or two truly successful distance running countries of the past ten years, and maybe half-a-dozen successful distance runners? ... No... that can’t be... because you require your good runners to win medals AND be within seconds of the WR.... so the only two successful runners in the past ten years have been Bekele and Geb?

[quote]revolution? wrote:

talk to me when we win gold medals in the olympics and break world records

I’m out—this is NASCAR logic, “Second place is the first loser,” bull; good luck at the Olympics Ricky Bobby. NO FEAR, Coors Light, etc.

revolution? wrote:talk to me when we win gold medals in the olympics and break world records

Are you some sort of monk who took a vow of silence? Why on earth would you think that running progress is only worthy of your precious breath if it involves Olympic golds and world records?

I mean, no one's forcing you to talk about it, but why would you get all bothered when other people talk about it? It's just really strange. I truly can't fathom what is going on in your head.

How hard can it be to run 12 and 1/2 laps averaging 62.4 per?

Jager certainly has what it takes to get under 13:00 down the road and he'll probably sneak under 13:10 next summer. By the time he cracks it though he will be amongst a handful of guys that are sub 13 runners in Ritz, Teg, Rupp and Webb. If Salazar can get Webb to race as a 1500-5K guy I think he and Rupp can make 12:50 the next legitimate barrier. It is scary to think that with two current sub 13 guys in their prime that we have others capabale of doing at least as much if not more in that event. And then you have Solinsky, Lincoln (if he focusses on it) Jager and Fernandez all climbing up the ladder just behind them.

progress is not the same thing as a revolution

hold the phone wrote:

Are you some sort of monk who took a vow of silence? Why on earth would you think that running progress is only worthy of your precious breath if it involves Olympic golds and world records?

Wow. Lincoln is going to break 13:00? The guy hasn't been running for the last three years.Solinsky.....? His pr is 13:12 and he's 25 years old basically in his prime.And you have Rupp pegged for a 12:50? How bout he breaks 13:15 first?A couple of guys run sub 13:00 and all of a sudden we are going to have an army of Americans doing the same??? We've certainly made some good progress over the past five years but lets not get carried away.

perspectivation wrote:

Jager certainly has what it takes to get under 13:00 down the road and he'll probably sneak under 13:10 next summer. By the time he cracks it though he will be amongst a handful of guys that are sub 13 runners in Ritz, Teg, Rupp and Webb. If Salazar can get Webb to race as a 1500-5K guy I think he and Rupp can make 12:50 the next legitimate barrier. It is scary to think that with two current sub 13 guys in their prime that we have others capabale of doing at least as much if not more in that event. And then you have Solinsky, Lincoln (if he focusses on it) Jager and Fernandez all climbing up the ladder just behind them.

Should Ritz have broken 13:15 before he went 12:57???

Ritz outdoor pr for 5K is 2 seconds better than Rupp's indoor mark and Rupps indoor race was about the equivalent of running a 5K a PRE in terms of peaking and environment/conditions. If you don't understand what this means it means that while PRE is a very good meet with stiff competition it is certainly not a meet that elites hit near their peak form and the result is you get guys running 13:15-13:20 or 7:35-7:40 there while they will later hit sub 13:00 and 7:30-7:34 in Europe.

Rupp is already at the 13:00-13:05 level and next year he will peak for a european racing season. This is not a hard concept.

Some of you guys get too (understatement WAY too caught up) in PR's and miss what happens in front of your eyes when a race unfolds. Maybe you just aren't able to recognize it. Teg ran 13:11? before worlds and for myself an several others watching it was pretty clear that he was ready to go under 13:00 in the right race. I've seen enough from Rupp on various levels to convince me of the same. I guess a big one is that none of our other current greats have accomplished as much as Rupp by his age in terms of marks, range, international experience and big meet performance. In fact across the board nobody came close. Ritz may have but injuries will keep us guessing. But then again health (lack of injuries) is a big part of what it takes, which again is why Rupp stands at the top of that list to me. He might get some dings but he doesn't seem to get the dents.

Lincoln is a big who knows, but he IS a runner who has the ability to run at the 13:00-13:05 level. There is a difference between guaranteeing he will do it and knowing it's within his ability.

Solinsky, in case you've forgotten is younger than Teg and Ritz, but you're writing him off? Seriously? His 1500 and 3K marks are just shy of Teg's. Solinsky's problem is not so much ability it's being race savvy. He needs some composure and patience instead of wanting to prove it right now. He's using his energy up too early in the races. Next summer he should sit behind Teg in races and see where he ends up.

You don't need linear PR marks or even a recent PR to break 13:00 or 27:00 (or 12:55 or 26:50) or whatever it is. What you need is the ability, health, the right training and coaching and the right circumstances AND to take advantage of the right circumstances when they are presented. I don't mean to underscore the difficulty of it, because really all those things need to be in place and THAT's what makes it special. Look at any of the Africans resumes and you will find loads of 15-20 pr's, or 2 or 3 year droughts followed by a big mark or pr.

How do people not understand this??? It's hillarious that right after Ritz (and really Teg who hasn't run under 13:04 for several years) prove this that we go back to the same old ostrich way of thinking about American distance runner capabilities. It was refreshing to read Moores article on Wheating to see that there are still intelligent people out there who know when they see talent and capability before the actual marks have to be made. Reading this message board you start to really wonder.

Agreed- thank you. They both have long hair but that is where the similarity stops.

Jager will be a top performer in time. I truly feel the battle will be between him and Fernandez in the states.

[quote]revolution? wrote:

A couple of guys run sub 13:00 and all of a sudden we are going to have an army of Americans doing the same???

[quote]perspectivation wrote:

How is it that you don't get that Ritz was maybe #5 or 6 (maybe worse) on America's 5K list? Now that he's done this, yes, we all do expect to see the people who have proven to be at least as fit as he is to also break the mark. Teg, Solinksy, Rupp, Jager, (soon) Fernandez, the list goes on-- all these are people capable of sub 13, but it takes the "revolution" of someone breaking the mark to break through the intimidating mental barriers of the record. When Bannister and his contemporaries battled for the 4 min. mile, it took them all years. Once Bannister did it, he held the record for just weeks. I mean, for God's sake, we see this on high school track teams: one guy breaks 4:30, or 10:00, and all of a sudden there's five guys doing it. Ritz's accomplishment is, in every way, a revolution, proven by Teg's performance, and when we see an American under 27 within the next year, it'll become clear just what a revolution Ritz has started.