have you seen my baseball wrote:
With 22 games to go Ichiro needs 17 hits for his 10th consecutive 200 hit season. I think thats pretty damn impressive. He will be 37 in October. Anyone think he will get to 3000 hits in the MLB?
He hasn't yet shown he's slowing down much, so yes, I think he gets 3,000 hits in MLB.
Today he has 2213 hits, so just 787 left. He'll be 37 during the season next year.
Let's assume he gets about 15 more hits this year to finish with 202 hits on the season, so he'll then have 2228, or 772 left.
He averages about 230 a season, but let's give him some deteriorating skills the next 4-5 years.
He will be 37 all next season.
37
38
39
40
If he plays until he's 40, he needs to average 193 hits a season...perhaps doable (especially if he gets over 200 at least one more time), but that's a lot to average at the very end of a career. He plays until he's 41 then he needs to average 155.4 hits per year. I think he can do that.
He'll need to stay injury free, continue to play almost every day and in the lead off spot in the American League (to maximize at bats) and hope he ages well.
Awesome awesome player.