POD in my opinion:
Hello People wrote:
Using the average improvement ratio from three of Rupp's PRs this season (1500-5k), he's due for a 27:09 10k based on his 27:33 PB.
And this is before one takes into account the fact that his 1500, 3k, and 5k times were all run indoors (meaning he could likely improve significantly on them outdoors).
well I've been observing for a while and i had to chirp in. this is not directed at you "Hello People" obviously because I think you are right on.
it really continues to amaze me that people think this kid is only good for 27:20-27:25 and 13:10-13:15! i'll give the benefit of the doubt to some of them and assume they just have never seen him run or really have no idea when and where he set his "prs".
let's think for just a second about where all the africans set the 13:00 and 27:00 range marks. outside of the pre meet here and that stacked and rabbited reebok 5k nearly every mark comes from European races and are nearly all rabbited at sub 13:00 and sub 27:00 minutes. granted in the olympics and world championships when you have 12:37 and 26:20 guys in the races they may bring them down to near 13:00 or 27:00. outside of a very small handfull of guys, all the other 13:00 & 27:00 marks are set under ideal conditions and ideal circumstances.
having said that, when was the last time galen rupp was in one of those races? i don't know off the top of my head but I'm pretty sure he hasn't hit europe in over 3 years. the next closest thing was a midseason 10K race at cardinal invite over 2 years ago and an indoor 5K this year and surprise, those are where his pr's are from. the plain and simple fact is he hasn't gone for a timed effort at either distance outside of those 2 races. you can't look at those pr marks and try to compare apples to apples where he matches up with africans who hit the european circuit year after year.
as someone mentioned, rupp was narrowly beat by Daba at the Tyson invite indoors in a race that started out around 13:25 pace at the 1K and gradually got faster and faster each 1K and ended:
Bekana adidas Lane: 10 13:17.89
Galen Oregon Lane: 11 13:18.12
Sam Liberty Lane: 8 13:19.79
Markos adidas Lane: 12 13:31.71
Shawn Arkansas Lane: 7 13:37.77
for those of us who watched that race, rupp looked absolutely within himself the whole way, he was actually short stepping at times as if his body wanted to go faster. those who saw it I'm sure remember. daba looked frightened.
and what has daba done since then?
ever heard of a little race called carlsbad?
10 Daba Bekana Ethiopia M 13:19 13:19 1 1 1 4:17 20 19 20
3 Abreham Cherkos Ethiopia M 13:19 13:19 2 2 2 4:18 20 19 20
1 Maregu Zewdie Ethiopia M 13:24 13:24 3 3 3 4:19 20 19 20
6 Ali Abdosh Ethiopia M 13:25 13:25 4 4 4 4:20 20 19 20
5 Collis Birmingham Australia M 13:27 13:27 5 5 5 4:20 20 19 20
2 Anthony Famiglietti M 13:28 13:28 6 6 6 4:21 20 19 20
8 Ibrahim Jeilen Ethiopia M 13:36 13:36 7 7 7 4:23 20 19 20
7 Alistair Cragg Ireland M 13:36 13:36 8 8 8 4:23 20 19 20
12 Haron Lagat Kenya M 13:38 13:38 9 9 9 4:24 20 19 20
15 Scott Bauhs United States M 13:56 13:56 10 10 10 4:29 20 19 20
16 Stephen Pifer United States M 13:58 13:58 11 11 11
ever heard of a little meet in berlin called the golden league? fyi 1st and 3rd below were gold and bronze at the olympic 10K in beijing.
Official Results - Men - 5000 Metres Pos Athlete Nat Mark Pts
1 Kenenisa Bekele ETH 13:00.76 20
2 Abraham Chebii KEN 13:01.08 16
3 Micah Kogo KEN 13:01.30 14
4 Vincent Kiprop Chepkok KEN 13:01.35 12
5 Bekana Daba ETH 13:02.32 10
6 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa KEN 13:03.43 8
7 Mark Kosgey Kiptoo KEN 13:03.70 6
8 Lucas Kimeli Rotich KEN 13:08.64 4
9 Edwin Cheruiyot Soi KEN 13:09.31 3
10 Silas Kipruto KEN 13:09.64 3
11 Jacob Korir Cheshari KEN 13:09.91 3
12 Jonas Cheruiyot KEN 13:14.61 3
13 Joseph Ebuya KEN 13:21.28
14 Mourad Marofit MAR 13:22.87
rupp has only gotten better since indoors and while due to his ncaa and oregon obligations this spring he probably won’t be hitting Europe, he is at the level. on a very conservative scale a 27:36 in beijing last year indicated he was already under 27:20 as a runner. he beat abdi by 15 seconds. abdi ran 27:16 in the morning at PRE and largely alone. Kidane Tadasse was less than a second ahead of Rupp and he ran 27:06 in may last year. Mahboob Hasan was 19 seconds behind rupp and his pr's are 7:44.99 (slower than Rupps indoor mark when rupp ran sick) 13:18.98 (slower than Rupps indoor mark) and 27:24. Rupp has faster indoor marks than this guy (who hit his marks in europe) and rupp kicked his ass at the olympics. and he is 27:24 guy. in fact you have to go back 12 places from rupp and over 35 seconds behind him until you can find a guy that doesn't have a pr faster than Rupp in either the 5K or 10K or both. to put it plainly rupp was beating a lot of guys that have better pr's in either the 3K, 5K, 10K and even all 3 than rupp. A lot of them substantially faster. take a look:
i would encourage any of you who use a vague notion that "the east africans" are all faster and that because you happened to dig up rupps old prs and assume that it’s too much time to knock off in one blow to reconsider. the fact is rupp was a sub 27:20 guy last summer and probably a 13:10-13:15 guy last summer. he is clearly (to those in tune with the sport) at different level now. that was first apparent when he went 24 laps in the 30-40 workout under pace and was told to stop (besting PRE's best mark by a mile and salazars by two miles). then he opened the xc season with a romp at pac-10's by beating 13:30 runners by nearly 60 seconds again at the western regional. where it really got interesting is when he decided to start working on speed and went 1:49 indoors. bye the time indoors ncaa's rolled around he was untouchable. untouchable in the 5K to a 13:19 guy. untouchable shortly after to 2 3:56 milers in the DMR mile. untouchable the next day to a 7:48 guy in the 3K despite completing a triple.
the point is there are guys in the ncaa who have run 3:37, 7:48, 13:19 & 27:28 and they couldn't even touch rupp as he doubles and triples. not even remotely. where is the logic that follows that rupp is at his best a 27:20 or 13:15 runner? rupp is right now a 27:0X and 13:0X runner and though he may not hit europe this summer he'll run like one at worlds. get on board and enjoy the ride. sorry for the long post, but hopefully you guys can get as excited as many of us are to see this happen. I don’t think anyone in their right mind thinks rupp is going to beat down that top tier right now, but if he can crack that next tier he’ll be doing something that only Kennedy and Lagat did regularly and Teg when he was at his best.