sampson wrote:
how would you coach a triple like that? I'm coming from a workout perspective--the 1500 and 10k are so different, how do you set up workouts that will allow him to compete at the top of each race?
Precisely the way that Alberto and Vin have been working him out.
In my opinion up through the 10K final he'll be fine. He can easily run the 5K prelim, come back in the 1500 prelim and then do his 10K. If he wants to win the 10K he will. Unless Chelanga is ready for another 15 second pr in the 10K, and he can do it leading with Rupp stalking him (there is 0% chance of this) than he is not dropping Rupp.
Why are people comparing Chelangas recent rabbited PR with Rupps mark from 2 years ago? Absolutely apples and oranges. You want to compare the two? Compare their race history, compare their speed, compare their strength and most importanly consider their ability to deliver on the big day. In all accounts, by far, it's Rupp.
If Chelanga does want to go suicidal at lets say 13:45 for this first half, Rupp could let him go and real him in over the second half. Sam will cave from the fact that he knows Rupp is better and that he is clearly capably of realing him in as Sam dies to 14:00 or slower. Or, Rupp can jog it and kick for 2nd. This might be the most likely scenario, since his last 2 races will be the toughest.
After finishing the 10K Rupp will likely feel about how he does after any of his 5K-10K workouts, or one of his races where he follows it directly with a lengthy workout in the middle of a full mileage week.
He'll have something in his legs no doubt, but you can't really analyze his recovery like you would others. The man has been getting so calloused to intensity and mileage over the past 5 years he is just a different animal. He mentioned that indoor NCAA's was the first time that he ever really tapered for a race and it felt great (wonder why?). I expect he'll taper a bit for NCAA's so that would aid to his recovery.
5K. He's unbeatable here unless the race can go at 13:30 effort and someone can close under 1:25 on the last 600. Meade could perhaps, maybe a few others. My gut tells me Rupp delivers here where others don't, and his biggest competition may be his own teammate Kiptoo Biwott.
1500. If he is able to go over 28:00 and near or over 13:30 I think Rupp has enough to score top 5 no matter how it goes. If it's fast he'll be in it all the way. If it's slow he'll be able to outkick more than half of the field (and that's assuming his legs feel like rubber by this point).
Rupps PRs mean nothing right now. He can run 3:37, 13:07 nd 27:10 if he actually goes into a single day meet with decent conditions, one event to run and strong competition.
There is nobody else near that in the NCAA, so if he attempts the triple he comes down to the level a bit in 5K and 10K and probably takes himself out of contention for a shot at 1st in the 1500.
Two ways he can run it.
10K, 5K both for blood and victory and then 1500 for whatever points he can come up with, counting on say 3 points.
OR
10K, give up 1st if Sam goes hard and claim a conservative 2nd. 5K, run in the back and don't touch the lead until the last 800 or less and go for the win, with a chance that someone like Meade sneaks it away and you get second most likely off of a slow pace. 1500 with mileage under the legs but not the long hard efforts, go in trying to win it or at least get top 3.
Personally i think option one is better.