The Machine wrote:
Really? Like... really? It basically seems like your saying German is the best distance runner in the US right now, I mean I can't really think of anyone whose bad day is better than Teg, Dobson, Cragg, Chelenga, etc. I mean you realize that Teg has run 3:34 and 7:34 right? I don't really know where your conclusion is coming from. He has run incredible times to be sure... but they are not world elite times. He didn't even run the fast 3k in the NCAA this year. So if his pr's aren't better than the top guys than I would look to who he has beat. His biggest win is over Micheal Coe by less than a second, an exceptional runner in his own right to be sure, but his pr's are no better than German's so that really doesn't elevate him too much. Chelenga and Rupp were messing around at XC nats and he was 20 seconds back sitting in a pack at 8k. I mean he is an incredible runner and if were posting 2 years in the future I would probably believe every word but NOW? Really?[/quote]
I didn't say he'd win on a bad day, I said he'd beat 2/3 of the field. He runs smart races, sits back and lets others do the work till it's time to kick into gear, when he surges ahead. If he runs like this in Heat 1, he beats 2/3 of the field. There are 24 in Heat 1, so he'd have to finish 8th or better. He wouldn't have to beat Chelanga, Cragg, Dobson or Teg to do that.
In my mind Chelanga is the favorite to win that heat. He'd be tough for German to beat. As for the rest, what do PRs matter? Alan Webb is the fastest American miler of all time, but at this moment, I might pick Rupp - a 10k guy until recently - over Webb in a mile. I guess we'll find out Saturday what kind of shape the Olympians are in, but I'm guessing - like Barrios, Fam, and Solinsky at Sac - they're not ready to run PRs yet. And if they're not in PR shape, I wouldn't be surprised for any or all of them to be outkicked by a fresh German.