NCAA indoor 5000 predictions

Dangit, flip the times for Rupp and Chelanga.

So anyone know what the deal is with Ledwith and Kinsella, and other top finishers from XC?

Very fair prediction, but to be different here are mine:

1 - Rupp, 13:25

2 - Chelanga, 13:27

3 - Forrest, 13:34

4 - Puskedra, 13:38

5 - Derrik, 13:39

6 - David, 13:40

I predict this race will get going a little earlier, maybe with 2K to go. I don't think Chelanga will be able to sit with a bunch of others while he knows it feels to slow.

1-Rupp 13:38

2-Chelanga 13:41

3-Derrick 13:45

4-Puskedra 13:48

5-K-Biwott 13:55

It will definitely be tactical with nobody wanting to lead, and then the racing begins with 1200 meters to go.

Chelanga will push the pace. At worst, he'll finish second to a surging Rupp.

With Rupp busy in other events, Sammy can safely run fast without worrying about being chased down.

Ledwith is a virtual stranger to the oval and I'm not sure where kinsella is. I doubt Ledwith would be even a drakhorse in any track race besides the NCAA Outdoor 10k which is a joke every year. The winner is usually legit but 3 throogh 5 are just people not good enough to hack it in the 5k aka the real race

Ummm...ever heard of Evan Jager?

Question Popper wrote:

Ummm...ever heard of Evan Jager?

Ummm...what about him?

Wouldn't it be to Chelanga's benefit to set a faster pace to possibly take the legs out of Rupp? He certainly doesn't believe he can outkick Rupp off a slower pace, does he?

When's the last time Chelanga has gone out slow?

Chelanga's last couple 3000s weren't exactly blazing. It is odd that he didn't qualify in that event. One wonders if he's had any issues with illness or soreness this season. I hope to see him in top form because it won't be that exciting to see Rupp walk away with it. I'm thinking Derrick will make a nice jump in improvement, but not sure about this weekend, as his training might be geared toward World Championships. I could see Fernandez, Chelanga and Rupp towing him to a sub-13:30 outdoors.

Some history:

5,000-Meter Run

1989 John Scherer, Michigan, 14:18.05

1990 Jonah Koech, Iowa St., 13:37.94

1991 Jonah Koech, Iowa St., 13:36.64

1992 Jon Brown, Iowa St., 13:42.93

1993 Jonah Koech, Iowa St., 13:47.18

1994 Jason Bunston, Arkansas, 13:48.07

1995 Mark Carroll, Providence, 13:55.15

1996 Jason Casiano, Wisconsin, 13:50.08

1997 Mebrahtom Keflezighi, UCLA, 13:52.72

1998 Brad Hauser, Stanford, 13:58.50

1999 Brad Hauser, Stanford, 13:52.79

2000 David Kimani, South Ala., 13:52.58

2001 David Kimani, Alabama, 13:42.32

2002 Alistair Cragg, Arkansas, 13:49.80

2003 Alistair Cragg, Arkansas, 13:28.93

2004 Alistair Cragg, Arkansas, 13:39.63

2005 Ian Dobson, Stanford, 13:43.36

2006 Josphat Boit, Arkansas, 13:49.93

2007 Chris Solinsky, Wisconsin, 13:38.61

2008 Shadrack Songok, A&M-Corpus Christi, 13:51.26

The field is certainly talented enough to break Cragg's 13:28.93 meet record if they choose to go out fast enough.

Kinsella was a fifth year in XC, he might not have indoor eligibility left.

I'm with the people who say Chelanga will take it out fast. He tried that in XC and hung with Rupp until very late in the race. This time around, his season's best is about the same as Rupp's and Rupp has been (arguably) focusing more on shorter distances.

Anyone know the best way to watch this race on tv or the internet? Is it just on the live streaming cstv video like with xc?

Galen Rupp will win it easily. I'm definitely not a fanboy but I just don't see anyone (even Chelanga) being able to challenge him this year.

sc runner wrote:

Galen Rupp will win it easily. I'm definitely not a fanboy but I just don't see anyone (even Chelanga) being able to challenge him this year.

I agree. The only collegian I can see sticking with Rupp right now is German. No one else has much of a chance at kicking home in 57 off a fast pace or closing a slower paced race sub-4. I think Rupp is in shape to do both of those and not many Americans, let alone collegians, can race like Rupp is racing. I think Chelanga can stick with him all day, but I don't think he can finish with him, so that a second place finish is most likely regardless of the style of race.

Yeah, I don't see anyone but Galen Rupp winning this one.

If this were a year or two ago, i might've doubted Rupp's speed off a slow pace. But this year he is running some blazing times in the shorter events. I don't think he can be beat in the 5000.

1. Galen Rupp 13:24

2. Sam Chelanga 13:24

3. David Tyson 13:30

4. Luke Puskedra 13:31

5. Chris Derrick 13:31

6. Elkanah Kibet 13:37

7. Shawn Forrest 13:39

which of the current freshmen will still be 18 for outdoors?

it seems everyone here sees them under rupp's AJR...

18

------

German Fernandez Nov 2, 1990

Chris Derrick Oct 17, 1990

19

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Luke Puskedra Feb 8, 1990

chrisdiaz16 wrote:

which of the current freshmen will still be 18 for outdoors?

it seems everyone here sees them under rupp's AJR...

They'll still be classified as juniors until Dec 31. Doesn't matter if they are 18 or 19.