Over or under 13:15 for Fernandez

jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

You should remember that at the time, he had run 7:47 ill and 3:55 solo and had just started track workouts. In the meantime, he got injured doubling at Big 12 indoors and missed some training. Then in outdoors, he focused on the 1500m, so he was not training for the 5. Finally, he's not going to Europe for a faster race. So, the sub-13:20 predictions, one of which was mine, weren't bad. The low 13 predictions were out of hand, though.

He opened indoors with a 3:56 win over a guy who just made the team in the 1500 for berlin (pending standard) and that was shortly after an injury that forced him to drop out of NCAA cross. His more minor injury in early march should have actually set him up perfectly for USA's. Predicting a summer euro season for a freshman? Yeah right. Fact is he ran right were those with intelligence predicted him too. Faster than all the greats as FRESHMEN, but not as juniors or seniors.

Lets all back off and realize that what he did was great and promising, but ultimately it was 3:39 and 13:25. If he was meant to save US disance running in the next year or two it would have looked like 3:33 amd 13:10. Lets back down on this cat and let him improve.

UNDER

face it wrote:

Fact is he ran right were those with intelligence predicted him

Precisely!

One of the things that is really interesting about this entire thread has essentially become a tradition within the LetsRun community.

People like "Catch Me If You Can" will dig their heels in and make ridiculous predictions, despite the best efforts of much more knowledgeable athletes and coaches to stear them in the right direction. When the smoke clears and it's time to take their medicine, they conveniently disappear.

Welcome to the LetsRun message boards! LoL!!!

some very realistic predictions made here. and bump

over, but only by a bit.

Catch Me If You Can wrote:

13:03!

young gunna wrote:

I think the question should be over or under 13:00!

the rocket wrote:

I believe German will give 13 a scare this year.

Another domestic track season draws to a close, and sixteen months have passed since this thread was started. I wonder if some of these fan-boys who made such outrageous predictions have had a sufficient reality check?

Over/under 13:15 would have been a perfectly reasonable question given his 13:25 if he was Solinsky. Unfortunately he's more like Ritz and gets injured all the time.

funny , how he seemed durable enough his senior year in HS, and then went 3:55 in an event I never would have thought him a factor in and won both indoors and out at mile and 15, 7:47 as a frosh and 13:25

seemed nothing but stardom

funny how this goes

He will be back, and he will take a dump on the whole field at NCAA XC this fall. Just wait.

Fred McGriff wrote:

He will be back, and he will take a dump on the whole field at NCAA XC this fall. Just wait.

Oh, believe me, I have been wating... and waiting.

jjjjjjjjjjjjjjjjj wrote:

You should remember that at the time, he had run 7:47 ill and 3:55 solo and had just started track workouts. In the meantime, he got injured doubling at Big 12 indoors and missed some training. Then in outdoors, he focused on the 1500m, so he was not training for the 5. Finally, he's not going to Europe for a faster race. So, the sub-13:20 predictions, one of which was mine, weren't bad. The low 13 predictions were out of hand, though.

That's some revisionist history if I've ever heard it...

trialswatcher wrote:

funny , how he seemed durable enough his senior year in HS, and then went 3:55 in an event I never would have thought him a factor in and won both indoors and out at mile and 15, 7:47 as a frosh and 13:25

seemed nothing but stardom

funny how this goes

I guess it seemed that way if you didn't really follow him, but he had many many injuries. IIRC he's already had a knee surgery for a torn meniscus

Won what indoors and out?Big XII?Certainly not the NCAA.

trialswatcher wrote:

funny , how he seemed durable enough his senior year in HS, and then went 3:55 in an event I never would have thought him a factor in and won both indoors and out at mile and 15, 7:47 as a frosh and 13:25

seemed nothing but stardom

funny how this goes

By age 19 he had a better career (NCAA Champ, etc) than most have ever had.

Even if he never runs another step, he will still be talked about (ala Curtis Beck, Jeff Nelson, Rudy Chapa, etc) for a long long time.

With all the time off from racing and the nice base he will have, Under. 13:02

in high school, his coach limited his speedwork to 30 s 200s, supposedly, because of injury issues. So, he was already fragile. With his xc credentials out of high school, his 3:39 from the front in a championship race (i.e. not pulled along, drafting off much faster guys: that indicated 3:35 or better ability), his solo indoor 3:55, his 7:47, and finally the 13:25 AJR, all of this with major training interruptions due to injury, we had and still have all the reason in the world to think that he could run low 13:10s. He just has to stay healthy for a couple seasons. He'll be back this year.

Those performances last year were incredible.

Under

Or at least it would be, except Smith said they were concentrating on the mile/1500 this year. So I'm not sure he's actually doing 5000.