ncaa runner wrote:
chelanga goes out in 2:30 w/ rest of pack in 2:40.
rupp breaks from the gap around 2k, and fernandez and several others go with him.
around 5k, chelanga has 10 sec lead with 14:05 and rupp and fernandez and others around 14:15
8k, chelanga has 5 sec lead from rupp and fernandez, and rupp and fernandez are looking strong with a 5 sec lead on the others.
last 800 of the race, rupp and fernandez have caught chelanga and the three are hauling ass trying to win the damn race. last 400 meters, fernandez and rupp are neck to neck sprinting while chelanga is dead. rupps memories from mcdougal cause him to lose and fernandez becomes ncaa champion.
This is pretty funny. You do realize that Galen could have beaten German by nearly 150 meters for that 2 mile race last summer right? And despite German's great running, I'd actually argue that Rupp has made a bigger fitness bump than German since then. If German tries to run with Rupp at all when Rupp goes it's a huge mistake. If he tries to stick with Rupp as long as he can, it's goodbye German and goodbye Oak States chances for a win. German needs to be more mindful of trying to beat Oregon's #2 runner than their #1.
By the way, of the group of runners at West Regionals behind Rupp, Shadrack looked absolutely chill until the last 1K where he blew that group to pieces. He was instructing Puskedra, smiling and talking to his coaches during 90% of that race and then finally went. Considering that Luke, Derrick, Kipchumba & Kinsella all have very strong chances of top 15 finishes, Shadrack is looking really strong.
Except for Derrick who moved up slowly over the last 2K the rest of this group wall all together with 1K to go until Shadrack dropped the hammer and they ended like this:
2 Kiptoo-Biwott, Shadrack Oregon 28:32.31 2
3 Kipchumba, Alfred Portland 28:36.02 3
4 Kinsella, David Portland 28:43.88 4
5 Derrick, Chris Stanford 28:44.31 5
6 Puskedra, Luke Oregon 28:45.48 6
Luke probably could have finished better if he backed off a little earlier and didn't work with Shadrack on leading the chase pack between 4K-9K, but he risked running in no mans land.
I'd put Shadrack in for a top 5 finish, and if things go really well top 3. To me there is a much higher probability that Shadrack beats German, than German beats Rupp. In fact I say anyone of the boys above have a better shot a beating German than German's shot a Rupp.