will i be ready to run 2:53 in 4 weeks?

Just a guess, but I think you will have no problem hitting 2:53. That's assuming that your tempo runs are really "tempo" pace and not harder (ie. you can talk if needed and aren't running all out). I think that if you can do a 10 mile tempo in an hour without straining too hard and have been putting in consistent long runs and weekly mileage, you can run a 2:53.

You should be fine doing 6:35 pace or even faster if you don't screw something up. I just ran 2:57 and you seem much faster than I am. My 5 mile tempos are 6:05-6:10 pace, my 10 mile tempos (and up to 14 miles) were at race pace. All of my easy stuff was around 8min pace. I have a little bit of experience with marathon (this was my 3rd) and have had things go wrong in the past. Be sure to take in plenty of calories. Do at least 400-600 possibly more if you can handle it. This is what saves you from the glycogen wall which is the worst. The muscle fatigue wall is more of a hill that constantly increases in slope if you know what I mean. Drink at every aid station. It should feel easier than a training run until the halfway point and then like a training run up to at least 20. I always feel great up to 23 and then struggle... this time I managed hold pace despite it being harder and harder up to the end. Having someone to run with in those last 5k is really really helpful.

With your fitness if you aren't scared of the distance you really should be shooting for something like 6:10 or 6:15 pace but I understand taking it very conservatively and then going for big PR's later when you have some experience.

I think 2:53 is well within reach for you based on the training you have described, the 10 mile tempos being run at 6 min pace is excellent and you also have been completing 20-22 mile runs..keep in mind you have been doing this during heavy training. Once you have dropped your volume your legs will be fresh to run at 6:35 pace for the 26.2 miles. I would advise starting your taper 14 days out, not 3 weeks, you do not want to peak too far out. I ran my best marathon whil only slightly dropping my volume 2 weeks before my PR marathon with a major drop the week OF the race.

I have a PR of 2:19:35 and can tell you, based on what you are doing and if you run a smart race you will surpass a 2:53 time. Take your gels every 10K, believe in yourself and stay in the race mentally. You'll break 2:53.

Good luck!

Nate

You should have no problem at all. Just run smart and you'll surpass your goal by A LOT.

thanks to all for the insight.

I don't doubt my physical fitness, I'm just wondering about how I'm going to adapt to the race mentality as the longest race I've run prior to this was a 10k.

If something i.e. muscle, tendon, etc begins to bother me around mile 20, I'm curious as to whether it's smarter to stop and stretch/knock the pace down or suck it up and keep going as it's "typical" for these things to come up during a marathon.

Froggy

Dont worry about how far you have gone prior to this. It is just wasted mental energy. Prepare yourself physically and relax as best as you can..you have only 4 weeks left. Control what you can control but based on your training a 2:53 marathoner or better your surely capable of.

Nate P.