the future of barriers

4-minute mile (female): not gonna happen

2-hour marathon: 20 years from now

1:40 800m: next 5 years

3:40 mile: 10 years

8:00 3000m (female): I think if Paula sharpened her speed, she might be capable of this right now. (maybe that's a stretch, but I like giving the benefit of the doubt)

2hr marathon(male): 25 yrs

4 minute mile(femaile): 60yrs

1:40 800m(male): 10 yrs

3:40 mile(male): 20yrs

8:00 3000m(female): 5yrs

1:40 seems ripe. The splits ( maybe something like 23/48/1:13 or 22/47/1:12)are something a lot(relatively speaking) of people can already do. That leads me to believe that somone will be able to put it together soon. It will just take someone who has world class(44.) 400 speed deciding to train for the 800. The womens 3k seems to be just a matter of time but it will be awhile and probably noone of this generation. Remember 4:00 was near the front in every Grand Prix race this summer for 1500m. 4:00 female mile seems a long way off for a clean athlete and 2:00 marathon will get chipped away at but will probably take 25 years or more. all IMHO

Its hard to say what the limitations are, but a male runner who is not enhanced w/drugs will never break 3:25 for the mile.

The 800 will go first, then the men's mile, the marathon, the 3000, then the mile. They'll all go within the next 10 - 15 years.

Personally,I would say...

3:40 mile, 1:40 800, 8:00 3000, 2-hour marathon.

A woman breaking 4:00 will happen, but probably not until well after the rest.

2-hour marathon (male) = 5yrs

4-minute mile (female) = 4yrs

1:40 800m (male) = 3yrs

3:40 mile (male) = 3yrs

8:00 3000m (female) = 4yrs

I think we are going to see some kids come out of Africa / Mid East that will challange all these times.

FAT CHANCE any of these records would ever be touched by an American.

I don't think there is any chance the marathon will be touched in the next 25 years. Just look at how little it has come down in the last 25 years.

50 years at best, unless we are talking about a drugged up pony

Well, considering only 5 people have broken 1:00 for the halfmarathon, I think a 2:00 full is far off. I'd say a good 25 years. 25 years per 5 minutes seems about right.

alan

2 hours will be an incredible barrier when it does come down, but I could see someone like Haile running in the 2:03 range when he hits it right. Nobody with his speed has ever seriously trained for the marathon, and I think if he can get and stay healthy and get in the training he needs to, he might get close to 2 hours.

1:40 and 3:40 seem pretty close to coming down, it may be in the next great running generation that this happens.

4:00 for females may happen, but I don't think it will happen for a long, long time.

Herb Eliot said that when somebody figures out how to use their mind correctly in training, they will be able to break 3:30.

1:40 is definitely the closest one. A 3:40 mile I don't see happening for awhile - look what a specimen El Guerrouj is and he's not getting any closer to it. I can see the Geb/Tergat/KK trio inching down the marathon WR to maybe 2:03. I'll go out on a limb and say at least 25 years for sub-2:00. As for the women's mile, I see women struggling to break 4 minutes for the 1500 right now, never mind the mile.

What about the next time a man runs sub-8:00 for two mile?

this is one of the most exciting things to think about. the records HAVE TO stop somewhere. where? have we seen the limit in any event yet? will there be another major technological breakthrough like when artificial tracks were introduced? can footwear be improved at all? a big part of record breaking is the mental side of things, but it has to stop SOMEWHERE! will michael johnson's 200m record ever fall? i'll be surprised if someone breaks that in my lifetime, and i've got a lot of years left.

1. 1:40 for 800m

Next couple of years. You need a a guy who can run 46.0 and has a hell of a lot of stamina. Borzakovsky seems like the best candidate of the day.

2. 3:40 for one mile

After 1:40 is taken down. Again, someone who can rip off mid-46 or better and maxes out their stamina. This person should be able to run low 1:41s themself.

3. 8:00 for 3000m (female)

Not for a long time. A 51 sec. quartermiler who can also run a 4:04 mile.

4. 1:59:59 Marathon

Not for a long goddamn time. 4:35 per mile for 26.2; my chart says that this will be a guy who can run 25 flat for 10k (25 60 sec quarters, 6.25 4 minute miles, so a LONG goddam time).

5. 3:59 for one mile (female)

It's hard to say which will take longer, a sub-2 hour marathon, or this one. A girl who can turn out 50 flat for the quarter, 1:50.0 for 800m, and can run 5:05 per mile for her LT pace. A very long goddamn time.

One more thing on the sub-2hr marathon:

Most of the top guys seem to run about 3 min/ half marathon slower in a full marathon than their half-marathon PR (Geb and Tergat PRs under 1:00). So, until somebody runs AT LEAST sub-58, and probably more like sub-57 in the half-marathon, 2 hrs isn't going to be very likely.

? wrote:

What about the next time a man runs sub-8:00 for two mile?

Well, there's been 10 people run 7:28 or better for 3k. The problem with the two mile is that it's never run. Once you have a rabbited race with the purpose of breaking the record then you'll have a couple of runners under 8:00 for the deuce.

Alan

washed up wrote:

this is one of the most exciting things to think about. the records HAVE TO stop somewhere. where? have we seen the limit in any event yet? will there be another major technological breakthrough like when artificial tracks were introduced? can footwear be improved at all? a big part of record breaking is the mental side of things, but it has to stop SOMEWHERE! will michael johnson's 200m record ever fall? i'll be surprised if someone breaks that in my lifetime, and i've got a lot of years left.

More likely an asymptote than an end point.

but there has to be an end to it. will a man ever run a mile in 1 minute? no. 2 minutes? 3 minutes? 3:30? 3:35? who knows where it will stop, but it will stop somewhere.

I would think El Guerrouj would be the best candidate. He's run 4:44 for 2k and 7:23 for 3k.