XC Nationals Predictions

Era Moda wrote:

Ghost of Ashenfelter wrote:

Maybe G'town is way better than their performance at last year's meet. Or maybe the spate of DNFs and DFLs at Region and NCAA T&F indicate that getting four-and-a-half out of seven across the line was actually quite an accomplishment!

What's with all you crabby appletons? Seriously, I am just messing around making a stab at this year's XC nats having little info on current team rosters besides a few rumors, last year's results and what people complain about.

Nick Ohlritchey, I agree.

I don't mean to take away from some nice work -- I certainly wouldn't have done it -- but I assumed you were putting this out here to generate discussion.

OK State will be tough. When attempting to predict German Fernandez' upcoming CC season, I think it's worth noting how well some other recent HS All-Timer's placed as Frosh.

Ritz - 4th

Webb - 11th

McDougal - 13th

Kiptoo - 14th

Solinsky - 15th

If Fernandez cracks the top 15 & the rest of their top guys all stay the same, they will be in contention for top 2. Keep in mind, Colby Lowe could potentially be a top 5 guy for them also.

3. 180 Oklahoma State ( 30:34 2:32:47)

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1 8 500 Ryan Vail JR 9:01 15:12 24:06 29:58

2 15 492 David Chirchir SO 9:06 15:24 24:19 30:20

3 42 501 Daniel Watts SO 9:07 15:24 24:33 30:43

4 48 490 Matt Barnes-Smith JR 9:08 15:24 24:34 30:45

5 67 497 David Jankowski SR 9:05 15:24 24:35 31:01

6 (112) 495 Sean Fleming SO 9:13 15:44 25:17 31:26

7 (183) 494 Brian Ehlis SR 9:16 15:55 26:00 32:37

more freshman results:

Chad Hall - DNS

AJ Acosta - 146th

Kenny Cormier - 28th

What about the Mercado's?

Diego- 49th

Danny- DNS

I heard that Bryce Burgess from Portland is going to Oregon State. If that's true, I think he'll be the top freshman at XC Nats this year.

Seriously, after watching this kid come up, I can tell you he is a major talent. I know that the coaches at Oregon State are going to go wild over him.

Era Moda wrote:

The 6-12 spots will be interesting to watch.

No they won't, teams that don't make the podium are irrelevant.

Dont you mean... just Oregon?

I'm pretty sure their only recruits were Puskedra and this kid...

I'm pretty sure it's Oregon State-- my sources are pretty reliable.

However, I'm not 100% sure, so if it really is Oregon, then damn, they got another great recruit. That's a lot of competition there in Eugene. Top to bottom-- from Rupp to Hall to maybe Bryce now, they will be DEEP.

But anyways, I think it is in fact Oregon State, so that's a great recruit for them!

1. Colorado - they have a million guys who have run under 14:00. they may be the rare team that pulls off the win without a big front runner. they seem to be at their best when everyone counts them out.

2. NAU - apparently they are getting more stud foreigners in this year.

3. Oregon - overrated, which is not to say they won't be very good and obviously could win it.

4. Oklahoma State - they return everyone and add some serious talent. also, dave smith is the smartest coach out there in terms of peaking and race strategy. but i think what people don't realize is that everything fell into place perfectly for them last year, and it's hard to do that back to back.

5. Iona - Kenyans generally don't run as well in the cold weather, but Iona's guys have proven to perform better than the other Kenyan teams like Alabama and UTEP. dropping them to the 5 spot because they lose #1 and #5, with a big gap to their #6 at last year's meet. wouldn't be surprised to see them higher though, as they are probably getting new guys in.

6. Wisconsin - lots of talent, but most of them are milers, not many 10k guys. coaching change should not hurt them too badly.

7. Georgetown - I hesitate to put them this high because something always seems to go wrong for the hoyas, but maybe they are due for a good meet. obviously should have been much higher last year.

8. Stanford - Will be hungry to rebound after last year's performance. Derrick will be the top freshman at NCAA's.

9. Virginia - they have a good trend going lately, and managed to get 12th last year with one of their top guys bombing. lots of young talent.

10. Minnesota - will have some serious front runners. if they come up with a good 4 & 5 they could finish higher

Bryce Burgess - Franklin HS, Portland OR – Distance - Oregon

Got that from dyestat...

Sorry man, lost another one to the O.

:(

Chad Hall is going to riverside next year. So you can count him out from Oregon

I don't even know anyone on their team, but Eastern Michigan will be top 30. That's just the way it is.

ghost of casey keller wrote:

I'm pretty sure it's Oregon State-- my sources are pretty reliable.

However, I'm not 100% sure, so if it really is Oregon, then damn, they got another great recruit. That's a lot of competition there in Eugene. Top to bottom-- from Rupp to Hall to maybe Bryce now, they will be DEEP.

But anyways, I think it is in fact Oregon State, so that's a great recruit for them!

Not only is that wrong, but Oregon State doesn't even have a men's xc team. You, sir, are "Uninformed."

for about half of your picks i think you're right on. for the other half, i think you couldn't be more wrong. either way, i like your guts in calling some of those teams.

with colorado, it is very difficult to see them winning the national championship the year after they lose Pifer, Nelson, & Vaughn. As many 14:00 guys as they have, it will still be difficult. This being said, I still think they will be top 4.

I've heard some bad things about the current status of NAU, and they lose their number 1 runner in Lamong. I wouldn't pick them this high, but am not surprised that others do.

I like that you say Oregon are overrated, but even if they lose Rupp and Hall next year, they should be a lock for top 3. good pick.

I would like to place OK State higher than 4th, but I agree with you about them having the perfect race last year. Add in some talent and it is still a good team, but not perfect.

Oregon State drop T&F/XC the last year I taught there, 1988. The women started a team, which is almost good enough to be last in the Pac-10 in track. I did not know that they had started a mens team.

Alabama finishes 6th in the nation brings their whole team back and adds Tyson David (3rd at NCAA 10k) and you don't have them in the top 10? WOW. But CU losses 3 of their top 5 they lost to alabama last year and you have them winning. Great picks.

ghost of casey keller wrote:

I heard that Bryce Burgess from Portland is going to Oregon State. If that's true, I think he'll be the top freshman at XC Nats this year.

Seriously, after watching this kid come up, I can tell you he is a major talent. I know that the coaches at Oregon State are going to go wild over him.

.

What the hell are you smoking. First of all, it is U of O he is going to. Second, there is no way he makes varsity, and no way at all he is the top freshman. Kid didn't make footlockers, ran an 8:30 in the 3k, a 9:08 in the 2 mile, and a 3:56 in the 1500 (I think). These are good marks. Hell really really good marks. But sorry, nowhere near what some of the other freshman are running. And its not like this kid has been doing this out of nowhere with some meteoric rise after not running at all before this. He ran in the 8:50's as a sophomore, and low 8:40's as a junior. Sorry, but you don't know what you are talking about. At UofO he is just going to be another also ran.

Bryce Burgess only an 8:30 3k? I know another 8:30 high schooler from Oregon... his name is Ryan Vail, who finished 11th at xc nationals last year...

what do you think about that?