Well after a few seasons in the NCAA, a few NCAA national championship races and some experience running last season's XC nationals here's the way I see things playing out. This season looks to be very wide open after the top 5. The 6-12 spots will be interesting to watch.
1) Oregon
Who would guess against the defending national champions? With Rupp, Hall, Danny Mercado, Diego Mercado, Klotz, Acosta, and a slough of footlocker finalists waiting their chance to run XC in the green and gold, not to mention Luke Puskedra is a great addition. The Ducks look strong and poised for another run at a national title. I hope I’m wrong, but this looks to be the makings of a dynasty…
2) Alabama
A lot of people don’t seem to see this one coming, but watch out! Bama only loses one from last year’s top 7… their #7. That means they already have Augustus Maiyo, Andrew Kirwa,, Emmanual Bor, and Abraham Kutingala who could all very well be All-American runners. They also add Tyson David, third at NCAA 10k outdoors. Who knows what other surprises they might add.
3) Oklahoma State
This team has been moving in the right direction for some time. They were third last season and only lose their #5 and 7 runners. Keep in mind the maintain Ryan Vail (finalist at the US Olympic Trials 5k), David Chirchir, Daniel Watts, and Matthew Barnes-Smith look to all be top 40 runners. Oh, and what about that German Fernandez kid? You be the judge, but they might not even need him to run to maintain third.
4) Colorado
You just can’t count these guys out. Wetmore knows how to get his guys here and he will do what it takes. Plus, after dominating the Big XII with mainly distance I don’t see how you’d not pick them toward the top. Nueman (13:49), Tebo (13:53), Medina,(13:51) Pannone (28:49), and Harkrader (13:54) is a decent top 5 I would say. Only thing is that’s it, five. With an injury these guys could be in trouble. Daddy didn’t buy these cars for Wetmore so let’s see what they can d…. Well I guess they are all footlocker finalists except Nueman, hmmm.
5) Wisconsin
Wisco, Wisco, Wisco. Too bad Schumacher has left you. You finish now depends on the coach you hire. I hope you choose well… This team is talented and even a horrible coach won’t knock them out of the top 10, but a bad coach could make the difference between them finishing 2nd or 8th.
6) Georgetown
I just can’t get over their race last year. I mean, dang, to get 13th with your fifth runner staggering across the line in 37+ minutes! That’s at least 100 points they lost because a freshman had a bad day. I am watching for these guys to have a good one this time around, and maybe they’ll bring more than five to NCAAs this year… Come on!
7) UTEP
They lose their #1 but will find a better Kenyan soon I am sure and will replace the ones who finished in the 200s last year to improve upon their team finish from last year. Go Kenyan! I mean UTEP.
8) Portland
This one’s for you Grote, where ever you may be. Seriously, Conner Knows how to coach and this team wasn’t too far off last year. I know they lose John Moore and Micheal Kilburg but hey, this season looks wide open after about 5th.
9) California
Honestly, I know little about Cal… They looked good last year at 16th and only lost two runners. They seemed to have a good upside when compared to a lot of these teams that lose 3 or more and 2 of their top 3. So 10th = Cal.
10) Minnesota
Mead and Rombough are a tough 1-2 punch but they are weak in the 4-5-6 department after losing three of the top 7 from last year’s eight place team. I think Steve P might has a trick up his sleeve and pull another Ace out of his hat around Big Tens…
11) Michigan
These guys had their flashes of brilliance last season. This season looks to be more brilliant since they only lose their #5 from last season’s top 7. These guys might be on the move quickly. Sub 4 was a good book by the way.
12) Florida State
Whawt’s ‘is I ‘ear? Luke Gunn ‘as one more year cuz ‘e made a World Junior XC team, this ‘ad me wonderin’ if Buckingham would return as wewl since ‘e also missed a year when ‘e ran on a UK junior world XC team… Interestin’ but ‘til I see the blokes running in FSU kit I put them here… Twelfff. But their twists are sure bend. I mean you could posh a few of them lot. Don’t worry the Britts know what I said.
13) Stanford
All-Star recruits can only get you so far… Hakon Devries, John McGuire and Elliot Heath are all great runners but I will wait until later in the season to be convinced that their freshman will play a big enough role to propel them into a top 10 spot.
14) Cal Poly
These guys had the race of their lives last year. They completely maximized their potential. Sadly, they don’t have as much potential this year. They lose a big gun in Phillip Reid and their #3 runner. But they will stay in the top 15.I see a pack of 5 at about 80 team score = 400 = 13th or 14th, I round up… for now.
15) Tulsa
These guys have been cruising under the radar and I pick them for my sleeper. Last year was bad… at best for Tulsa, but it was the school’s first appearance at a national championship for XC. The team will learn from this and move forward. Key returnees: John Beattie (world XC qualifier from the UK) and Mark Davidson (made the finals in the 1500 outdoor and ran a 8:06 3k)
16) Arkansas
No John Mac, no good… wait? Arkansas hasn’t won a xc title since…2000. It’s been a while. Hmmm. Well one way or another you can’t fix last year’s performance in one season.
17) Louisville
Louisville has been really moving forward the past few years but losing 3 of last year’s top 7 is rough, especially when you lose your 1 and 3 runners. Eaton is going to have a good season, saw him training in Flagstaff last year, maybe he’ll do it again.
18) Arizona State
So they lose Alcorn, rough. But they were fairly young and Louis Q is quite the coach. Look for them to make a strong move forward from last year’s 26th place finish.
19) Iona
They should probably be higher… I just forgot about them until now.
20) William and Mary
That’s just a horrible name for a school and based solely on that reason I put them here.
21) Indiana
Young… and not very good.
22) Virginia
Please don’t argue; I am being generous letting you be this high. You lose 3 of the top 3 and your top 2!
23) Washington
24) BYU
Just lost to many guys. I won’t be surprised if they don’t get into nationals, but who knows what ‘young’ missionary stud will be coming home soon.
25) New Mexico
Sure, why not.
26) Iowa State
Could be better but they just love under performing so I will assume they do it again.
27) Texas
I really have a hard time picking them to even make nationals since they lose their whole team minus Morse, but there is no one in that region that can even dream of going to nationals… Baylor, no, Rice, no, Stephen F. Austin, no, Houston, no, A&M… The list just keeps going.
28) Syracuse
Maybe they are half as good as the habitual posters on letsrun think.
29) Villanova
I don’t know what to write and I’m getting hungry so the last few will be quick.
30) Providence
Losing Haji hurts a bit, but thanks to a weak regional you’ll be at the dance!
There you have it, now go run!