Depends on numerous factors.
1) How well you time trial.
2) How much effort you actual put into a time trial.
I know guys who can run near PR's of times they just ran a week or two ago in a time trial just because the reality is they run them just like races. So really they're just racing without a crowd so to speak.
Check your history of time trials you've ran before and what you ended up running. If it's consistent then it's probably the same difference still, if not then going back tot he first issue, did you run this as if it were a race or were you keen on it being a time trial and ran it almost like a tempo.
If you ran it like a true time trial going to your example, if someone ran 10:00 for a time trial I would say they should be able to run 9:45 for a race. Which is a 2.5% difference which sounds about right because a time trial should generally be almost as high as a race effort but not quite. 2.5% doesn't seem like a lot but it's worth 15 seconds in the two-mile.
Formula to use is:
x/total seconds of time trial X 2.5/100
x/600-seconds X 2.5/100 >> cross multiply 600x2.5 >> 1500 >> Divide by 100 >> 15-seconds
15:45 5k
x/945 X 2.5/100 >> 2362.5/100 >> 23.625 >> 15:21.375 for a race.
Given I would assume conditions and competition would need to be ideal to actually run but generally it should give you a good idea of what general range you should run, in this cause 15:20-15:30 and for the two sub-9:50.