After today is Ryan Hall further away from an Olympic medal?

Although Ryan Hall is clearly an incredible talent, I just don't see him winning in Beijing. He has the ability to run fabulously well in "time trial" conditions, but he doesnt have that rapid change of gears to cope with the burn up at the end of a major race. Look at how marathons are being WON today - hard pace for 24 miles then an almighty burn up in the last 3K or so. I can name 20 Africans who can cope with a 2:06 pace but who can ALSO then switch into overdrive to win races. I see a top 10 for Ryan but not better. I hope I am wrong because it would be amazing to see him atop the medal rostrum - but I don't think I am....

Hall is closer to a medal or gold than he's ever been before and will certainly be a favorite. It will come down to who can win in the heat and humidity. Who knows who that will be, but there will be at least one guy with a medal who you've never heard of, possibly 2. I'd be very surprised if it's won faster than 2:09 and probably not even sub 2:10. Asian runners did very well in Barcelona and I'd expect something similar this year.

People vote for the same person they are rooting for. Just because people voted for Hall doesn't mean that they'd put even money on him to win. If you polled people in Detroit, Boston, LA, New Orleans, SA, Salt Lake City, Cleveland etc on which team will win the NBA finals, you would get different answers in every single city.

Not Gonna Do It wrote:

Will be a while until he sees how much London affects him post race.

Might not have been a good idea--do two fast races in a year.

Why not put the whole thing on the line in China when it matters most?

just wondering--

It seems like everyone else is running a spring marathon, so why shouldn't he? Wanjiru has run two fast races in a shorter time period. Mutai smoked Amsterdam just a few months ago. If you made a list of Olympic contenders and the London lineup you'd have a lot of overlap on the names. I can't believe that nearly every elite athlete in the world is making the same, rookie, mistake.

lardy wrote:

Although Ryan Hall is clearly an incredible talent, I just don't see him winning in Beijing. He has the ability to run fabulously well in "time trial" conditions, but he doesnt have that rapid change of gears to cope with the burn up at the end of a major race. Look at how marathons are being WON today - hard pace for 24 miles then an almighty burn up in the last 3K or so. I can name 20 Africans who can cope with a 2:06 pace but who can ALSO then switch into overdrive to win races. I see a top 10 for Ryan but not better. I hope I am wrong because it would be amazing to see him atop the medal rostrum - but I don't think I am....

Not sure where this opinion is coming from.

four eyes wrote:

Hall is closer to a medal or gold than he's ever been before and will certainly be a favorite.

One of the reasons his chances have improved is that his confidence has undoubtedly improved.

Anyone who thinks that he's not more confident and closer to a medal than he was prior to yesterday after yesterday's race is delusional.

That doesn't mean he's going to win or medal simply that he likely has a better chance.

I'm sorry- didn't Hall win a marathon in November by breaking away with "a rapid change of gears"?

the former mobile9 wrote:

I'm sorry- didn't Hall win a marathon in November by breaking away with "a rapid change of gears"?

You don't understand what they mean by "change of gears." The London race the pace was up and down. At the OT they started out very slow, then steady 5:00 pace, until Ryan broke away.

Good point and info from malmo as usual. Can't even come close to predicting medals based on fast times in London in April. Meb at his very best wasn't even close to any of them (including Hall), and HE has a silver medal that no one will ever take from him.

You can predict the medals when the top three are about to finish and not close to each other an #4 is far back.

Old guy with a good memory wrote:

Los Angeles 1984: heat and humidity.

Your memory isn't very good. It was neither hot nor humid for the LA Marathon on August 12, 1984. Start time was after 5:00 in Santa Monica, on the coast, the temp was only 73 degrees with the Sun setting. Dew point was only 65.

I'd think that Athens and Atlanta will be the most similar. From just guessing, I'd expect a good showing from an Asian (Korean or Japanese) . It's going to be a grueling push in that last 10 miles.

thinker wrote:

I'd think that Athens and Atlanta will be the most similar.

Athens and Atlanta were not similar at all.

Here is the actual data from Athens.

M 10k 8/20/04 10:30pm 77 degrees, 39% RH, Dew Point 55 degrees

W mar 8/22/04 6:00pm 86 degrees, 58% RH, Dew Point 70 degrees

M 5k 8/28/04 9:00pm 75 degrees, 38% RH, Dew Point 50 degrees

M mar 8/29/04 6:00pm 80 degrees, 51% RH, Dew point 54 degrees

The Dew Point Temperature - A Better Approach

The Concept

Humidity is a complicated concept. Humidity refers to evaporated water substance in the air, i.e. water vapor. For years relative humidity has been what we use to inform the TV audience, but it has many pit falls and to tell you the truth almost no one understands it, including many meteorologists.

Think Energy

When thinking of humidity you always have to think in terms of energy. Of course this is expressed as temperature. There is only so much energy to go around and only a certain part of the thermal energy can go to do the work of evaporation. The rest goes to the other molecules in the air.

Relative humidity expresses how much of the available energy has been used. A relative humidity of 50% means half the energy has been used to evaporate water from the ground, streams, lakes anywhere else it is and 50% is still available to do more evaporation.

Relative to What?

On a summer morning the temperature may be 75 degrees and the relative humidity 90%, a very sticky morning indeed. Without changing the amount of water vapor in the air if the temperature hits 92 degrees in the afternoon the relative humidity is 52%. Relative humidity is RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY AVAILABLE Because the amount of energy increased as the sun warmed the atmosphere the percentage of the energy used decreased, i.e. the relative humidity, all the while there was no change in the amount of vapor in the air.

So when you hear someone say its feels worse than 52% relative humidity today, they do not understand the concept of RELATIVE HUMIDITY. Ninety-two degrees and 52% is a very humid afternoon. Because the concept is confusing many meteorologists are trying to get use dew point temperature.

The Dew Point Temperature

Dew point temperature is a measure of humidity. If you take a parcel of air, and cool it, eventually you will remove enough energy to begin to get water vapor to condense. Remember the water vapor was originally liquid water and to get it to evaporate you had to add energy. As long as it has sufficient energy it will remain vapor, but as you cool it at some point condensation will occur. The temperature where condensation begins is the dew point temperature. In terms of relative humidity, as the parcel of air is cooled, the relative humidity increases, when the relative humidity reaches 100%, you are at the dew point temperature.

Dew Point vs. R.H.

Unlike relative humidity if dew point increases, it is only because the amount of moisture increases. If relative changes it can be because of temperature change or moisture change, two variables leads to too many possibilities, with dew point it is strictly moisture you are tracking.

Dew point can never be higher than the temperature, at saturation, i.e. 100% relative humidity the temperature and dew point are the same.

So How Does Dew Point Feel?

On a typical summer day the following apply:

________________________________________

• Dew Point(F)..........Perception

________________________________________

• 75+....................Extremely uncomfortable

• 70-74...................Very humid, quite uncomfortable

• 65-69...................A bit uncomfortable for most people

• 60-64...................Ok for most, but everyone begins to feel the humidity

• 55-59...................Comfortable

• 50-54...................Very comfortable

• <=49...................Feels like the west, very pleasant, a bit dry to some

________________________________________

A Common Misconception

One last thing if you ever hear someone say it was 90 degrees and the humidity was 90%, that has never happened in Cincinnati, (and unless the greenhouse effect goes into overdrive never will). 90 deg/90% requires a dew point of 85.5 degrees. In Cincinnati the highest ever dew point was 81 deg. for just a few minutes.

In August 1995 we had four hours of 78,79,78,77 degree dew points, the highest persistent dew points I have seen in Cincinnati since working here as a meteorologist. For one hour I did see a dew point of 81, just after a thunderstorm.

World Record Dew Points

However veterans of the Persian Gulf War know what 90/90 feels like. The Persian Gulf and Red Sea both attain sea water temperatures in the mid 90's. That's plenty of energy, along with the 115 degree air temperatures, to evaporate water.

The dew point has been measured on the shore of Ethiopia, the area is now part of Eritrea, at 94 deg. F. The highest known dew point temperature in the world. The relative humidity with a temp of 115 and a dew point of 94 is 54% this doesn't tell you as much as the dew point when you consider the table above.

© 1995 Steven L. Horstmeyer, all rights reserved

It seems like a lot of it is going to come down to the recovery.

Just say recovery?

No, we are further away from Ryan Hall. He'll run 2:05 with even pacing and is not 'peaked out.'

Hall has a good shot at winning an Olympic Games medal in Beijing if he trains accordingly and acclimatizes well to the adverse conditions. The anticipated heat-humidity-pollution component is the obvious wildcard.

What was the Dew Point for Atlanta marathon?

Athen's Women's marathon was nasty.

whatever man wrote:

No, we are further away from Ryan Hall. He'll run 2:05 with even pacing and is not 'peaked out.'

Hall has a good shot at winning an Olympic Games medal in Beijing if he trains accordingly and acclimatizes well to the adverse conditions. The anticipated heat-humidity-pollution component is the obvious wildcard.

I think the thing that is overlooked the most in his chances is that his preparation will be more specific for Beijing than 90% of the other runners. Look at his training group. Two medals in Athens, in what could be very similar weather conditions. This preparation could more than make up the 60 seconds in fitness on a flat course. It will be interesting to see what approaches the Hall camp takes to prepare specifically for Beijing, but I am sure that whatever they are they will be better than the Kenyan contingent. It worked for Meb and Deena, so why NOT for Hall?

actually, no he didn't. There was a sustained increase in pace over time. In his post-London interview, Hall himself admits to being a "rhythm" runner and finds changes in pace hard. He ran an incredible 2:06:17 - but still had a minute taken out of him in the closing stages. Look at the way world-class races (not the trials) are actually WON. It's a huge burn up in the closing stages. I'd love him to win in Beijing, but it ain't happening.