What can I run for a 42.2k?

I have no idea how much fitness you've lost, but if you want a goal to shoot for, 3:30 sounds right to me.

If you have been training enough to transfer your distance running (3k - 10k) to a marathon, about the best you can hope for is going 10% slower for a marathon than a 10k. For instance, 37:18 is 6:00/mile or 360sec/mile. Running 396/mile or 6:36 would be about as good as you could expect. (A similar rule is 4.666 times 10k time = marathon time). This is 2:54 pace. For this ratio it helps if you are relatively light as a runner rather than heavy, but more important is efficiency.

Again, to do this, you need to be able to hold a good pace for a long time. In my opinion, this requires you to do some (not all, especially at first) of your longer runs at a pretty good tempo, although you can speed up after several warmup miles.

The nice thing about this rule is that you can calibrate how fast to go out. Go out at least 5 seconds slower per mile in the first half, and maybe 10 seconds for the first 5-10k. It is much better to have strength the second half so that you are passing people throughout the second half -- this helps psychologically when you are getting fatigued and the low blood sugar makes it easy to get discouraged.

Good luck and look forward to your postings on your progress.

No way to tell, it is too far out. Depends a ton on what training you can do in the next year.

I hope you do great, but with your history I predict another stress fracture. Sorry.

marathon?

Doctor Truth wrote:

if you want a goal to shoot for, 3:30 sounds right to me.

Concur - not because I don't think you're capable of going a lot faster, but because of your history of injury. I think that building up your mileage in training will be an important test, and you shouldn't tempt fate by doing those miles too fast. My friend and training partner was in a similar situation - good runner, but prone to injury at >40mpw - and that's the approach she used. It was a little weird (she was running her marthon pace and MP-10 sec. "workouts" slower than we would normally run together!), but it worked. She now has one marathon under her belt (and, btw, has been running better than ever at shorter distances).

A general way of estimate is to double your half marathon time and add ten to 15 minutes per half. As for your health now it would be unwise using that math. If you are running a marathon just to run one I would suggest that you focus on finishing it rather than setting a goal time. If you really want to train for one and run fast then you may want to add more time on to your training plan (24 weeks or more) to get back in health and base your training off of a TT or a current 10k time. A simple conversion is: 10k x 1 minute per mile (based off of add 15 seconds per mile per double of distance) x 4 + converted mile time + (converted mile time / 2.67) = 42.2k prediction.(600meters conversion from 1609 meters is 2.67). Although this is quite complex, other running sites have conversion calculators that use this math as well. Runnersworld has a decent estimate calculator here:

http://www.runnersworld.com/cda/trainingcalculator/0,7169,s6-238-277-279-0-0-0-0-0,00.html

Firstly, you should concern yourself with staying healthy. If you can maintain healthy for 6 months and increase your long run up to 12 miles then you can possibly start training for a marathon.

I agree with the others -- 3:30 is a safe and realistic goal.

I was in the same boat in February 2006. I spent 6 months just running low mileage and the occasional 5k or 10k -- very conservative. By October 2006 I was only in 19:45 5k/42:00 10k shape, but my endurance was probably ahead of that. In Febraury 2007, I ran a 3:29 marathon. This coming February, I'll probably run 3:15-ish.

If you get aggressive, you probably can go as low as 3:20, but you'll probably increase your chance of re-injury...

Mr. Obvious wrote:

No way to tell, it is too far out. Depends a ton on what training you can do in the next year.

i agree with this.

i think 3:30 is doable, and respectable, IF you stay healthy and IF you are able to get in the long runs. lots of "ifs."

half the battle for the marathon is getting to the starting line healthy. the long runs are tough on your body.

good luck.