How many days before a Kenyan Break Haile's 2:04.26 Marathon WR?

no.

The day Kenenisa Bekele and Samwel Wanjiru Kamau decide to switch to the marathon is the day this record will seriously be at stake and that might be several years to come.

Until then,it'll be safe and will last longer than Tergat's ever did.

Tergat would probably have broken it but the poor fellow is 38 years old. They both broke the record in their early or mid thirties and that is the difference.

If someone is to break it, it'll be Haile next year.

[quote]Marathon Observer wrote:

First I would like to congratulate G.O.A.T Haile Geb. for setting the marathon world record of 2:04.26 in the Real-Berlin Marathon on September 20th 2007.

As world records are meant to be broken, it is a matter of months if not days before another Kenyan (not Paul Tergat) breaks the marathon world record.

My Prediction - less than 1 year before the WR is reset again by some Kenyan.

Congrats Haile, but you wont have own the world record for as long as Paul Tergat did. God job nevertheless Haile - Greatest of All Times.[/quote

I'm assuming this is a troll as I find it hard to believe anyone could be this stupid.

Samuel Wanjiru will lower the world record to right around 2:04 flat in about 3-4 years, then it will probably stay that way for 15 years or so.

make it between 2:02:30 to 2:03:30, Wanjiru will demolish the world record soon.

I'm going to wait until after he runs NYC in November to judge Wanjiru's marathon potential. But I do think he has a better shot than pretty much anyone else running right now.

Wanjiru is the man to watch. Bekele probably wont move up for awhile but i hope he does, definitely want to see what he is capable of at the half and marathon. Maybe Bekele will move up soon and we can see him and Wanjiru battle in some great races.

The answer would be "not anytime soon." I doubt Evans Rutto or Felix Limo will do it in Chicago, and Sammy Wanjiru is runnig in NYC, where he certainly won't go that fast. And 2008 is an Olympic year so it won't be a priority in April's marathons. So...it'll be a year at minimum. And I wouldn't even expect it then.

Let's step back and look at what we are pondering. it took Geb 5 YEARS to get the marathon record and he had many many very very good marathon performances before he got the right weather and conditioning to break it...the men's marathon record is not soft and unless there is a new round of drugs will not just plummet at will. it has taken the two greatest distance runners of all time (before Bekele)--Tergat and Haile--to make any improvements on the 2:05 standard that, although incredibly fast, has been attainable by other athletes that weren't also ridiculously fast at shorter distances.

Except for that damn rabbit of Tergat's...Simon something?

i think haile could lower it into the 2:03's. but wanjiro definitely has a shot at it and might also be able to run 2:03's, we'll have to see how his amazing half marathons convert to a full. and maybe bekele in 7-10 years if he moves up to the marathon eventually. those are definitely the only three current pro's out there that have a shot at it.

unless ryan hall runs 2:02...?

definitely no random kenyan is gonna break it. how long will it take and how many times will it need to be broken till we get a sub-2 in there?? my guess is at the end of this century and it'll be broken 10 times before it gets there.

The poster who pointed out how long it took Haile is right on. The problem with dropping the marathon record is that it requires someone with track speed and that perfect day/course, allowing the race to be run like a 10k. In the marathon, there are a variety of limiting factors that can ultimately determine how the race will go: stomach cramps, dehydration, heat exhaustion, glycogen depletion. None of these are major factors in track races. To run a WR, everything has to go right so that none of these factors are limiting--just like on the track. It doesn't happen that often.

What makes me think that it might drop a lot over the next few years is the number of fast guys that are running the event now. It's hard to put your money on anyone, because a legitimate record opportunity is so rare (London, Berlin, or Chicago, conditions being perfect and the athlete being healthy), but as more guys with the creds continue to try, inevitably the stars will align and we'll see another WR.

what about Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea? he have stated last year that he will run the marathon in 2008. don`t you think he is capable of breaking it?

Brilliant point in bringing up Tadesse. He is such a strong runner that he may very well clock a top marathon time.

I know that we have thought this before and been wrong but this time I wouldn't be surprised to see Haile's record last at least a decade. 2:04.26 is so good that only the best 10,000m runners have any chance at getting it and most won't be as good over the marathon distance. I think the 430miler said something similar:

"LONG LIVE GEBRSELASSIE'S RECORD"

geb is set to try to break his new record in january in the doha qatar marathon, i say todays record will last 10 years and the person who breaks it will be someone unknown now, but probably a kenyan, because they have so much depth 48 of the all time 100 top marathoners compared to 7 for ethiopia.

him self wrote:

what about Zersenay Tadesse of Eritrea? he have stated last year that he will run the marathon in 2008. don`t you think he is capable of breaking it?

Didn´t Tadesse run a HM in something like 61 this year?

Geb isn't done. He breaks the record and within hours most of the talk is about what comes next! What the?

he had already signed up to run the doha qatar marathon in january 2008 before he ran todays record.

Rodgers Rop could do it in the next month.

He ran 2:07 in Hamburg last April. He paced Geb thru 30km in 1:29 and looked like he was jogging. I am not sure which race he is running (Amsterdam?) but he will def take a shot at the end of October.

A runner of this caliber rabbiting a race is extremely unusual. This leads me to believe he wanted to do a solid 30km run 3-4 weeks before a real test. Why not get paid for training.

The world record has just been broken, and you're already talking about breaking it again? Come on, it took 4 years to break Tergats record, do you think it is easy?

And if someone is to break it, it will be Geb again, because he is a phenomenon.