USATF 10,000 top five predictions

Hall

Rupp

Abdi

If it's hot, 28:25 wins. Even if it's not hot it will go in about 28:00. I doubt anyone is going to take the pace hard enough to begin with to run under 28:00. Something will go wrong for Ritzy (dnf)

Hall keeps things honest (but not fast) through 8k then Ritz closes with a very fast last 2k.

1) Ritz

2) Abdi

3) Hall

4) Rupp

5) Torres or Culpepper

All 5/6 under 28:00.

ritz

culpepper

abdi

torres

hall

(don't count our rupp either)

i think ritz is in good shape, and you can never count out culp or abdi. torres has a good kick (see last year) but i think its going to be more than a kickers race this year. hall is in good shape but i bet he still has marathon legs. winner in around 28:05

Culpepper is vastly underrated here. He has no less a chance to win, versus anyone.

Hall

Torres

Ritz

Rupp

Fernando Cabada

1. Culpepper - yet again under-appreciated, but a vetern and a champion

2. Rupp - young and spirited

3. Abdi - another under-appreciated runner: pr 27:22 but he's not white

5. Hall - still feels his marathon, but happy with his finish

5. Ritz - fitness trailing off toward end of summer (not properly advised)

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1) Ritz

2) Abdi

3) Culpepper

4) Rupp

5) Hall

inandoutburger wrote:

1. Culpepper - yet again under-appreciated, but a vetern and a champion

2. Rupp - young and spirited

3. Abdi - another under-appreciated runner: pr 27:22 but he's not white

5. Hall - still feels his marathon, but happy with his finish

5. Ritz - fitness trailing off toward end of summer (not properly advised)

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I agree with most generally. But Abdi's not under-appreciated. He's had some off races, while others in the group have run great. With Hall, after his Stanford 10K, I'm not sure how anyone can pick him to win. He definitely tried to win that race, but couldn't kick. Since then, he's run the marathon, and had a little time off. He'd also need a couple of off races from others to run away from everyone, as Rupp just ran 27:31, Ritz 8:11, and Culp being Culp.

inandoutburger wrote:1. Culpepper - yet again under-appreciated, but a vetern and a champion

2. Rupp - young and spirited

3. Abdi - another under-appreciated runner: pr 27:22 but he's not white

5. Hall - still feels his marathon, but happy with his finish

5. Ritz - fitness trailing off toward end of summer (not properly advised)

Is that Tim or Alan Culpepper? Honestly, I love him and would be thrilled if he won, but I can't see him running the PB it would take to win a fast race, and I can't see a 35-year-old man outkicking and of these boys in a tactical race.

1. Hall

2. Ritz

3. Abdi

4. Rupp

5. Culpepper

You're looking at Culp being 35, but ignoring his proven kick... and that he was as good as ever in beating these guys in Februrary's USATF's XC. He hasn't "gotten old" yet. At least as of a few months ago.

webby wrote:I can't see him running the PB it would take to win a fast race, and I can't see a 35-year-old man outkicking and of these boys in a tactical race.

doesn\'t abdi have the fastest time this year? it seems like everyone missed when he ran something like 27:31 in hengelo. Even though ritz is in good shape i\'d say abdi is the favorite.

I'm pretty stoked for this race.

ttc wrote:

inandoutburger wrote:

1. Culpepper - yet again under-appreciated, but a vetern and a champion

2. Rupp - young and spirited

3. Abdi - another under-appreciated runner: pr 27:22 but he's not white

5. Hall - still feels his marathon, but happy with his finish

5. Ritz - fitness trailing off toward end of summer (not properly advised)

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I agree with most generally. But Abdi's not under-appreciated. He's had some off races, while others in the group have run great. With Hall, after his Stanford 10K, I'm not sure how anyone can pick him to win. He definitely tried to win that race, but couldn't kick. Since then, he's run the marathon, and had a little time off. He'd also need a couple of off races from others to run away from everyone, as Rupp just ran 27:31, Ritz 8:11, and Culp being Culp.

For the 397,246th time -- Hall was training for a marathon, not a 10k, and yes, the two are very different. Saying he can't kick based on one race is stupid -- saying he can't kick based on that race is mentally f***ing retarded.

Dan Onymous wrote:

For the 397,246th time -- Hall was training for a marathon, not a 10k, and yes, the two are very different. Saying he can't kick based on one race is stupid -- saying he can't kick based on that race is mentally f***ing retarded.

Hall's had LOT'S of races to prove kicking is by far his biggest weakness. The only race his kick has been a positive was against Dobson in the NCAA 5K. I'm not talking a latter race strength surge for home, but when people are together with a lap to go type of finish. How can people say different, other than that maybe he's gotten better at it, so wait/see.

So many story lines: Hall's first 10,000 where he has done specific preparation for it; Ritz off of beating Mottram and running 8:11; Torres defending champ with a solid finish; Abdi consistently good; Rupp off of 27:33; Culpepper having won the X-C 12,000. Now, if only the race were in Sacramento, where it would be cool and dry in the evening. And I agree: I think Hall will make the pace, which is why I think even if it is quite warm, the time will go under 28.

Injured Marathon Runner wrote:

Hall keeps things honest (but not fast) through 8k then Ritz closes with a very fast last 2k.

1) Ritz

2) Abdi

3) Hall

4) Rupp

5) Torres or Culpepper

All 5/6 under 28:00.

I think this is good wrote:

Hall's first 10,000 where he has done specific preparation for it

It'll be tough for him to be fully prepared. London was 2 months ago, after which he stated time off. Personally, I think he'll be in great shape... but we're talking about him being quick enough to compete against 8:11 Ritz and some 27:30 type guys. That's a tall order. But in his corner, the heat will play in his favor. It's not like his strength will allow him to wilt.

Culpepper's kick is legendary. And if is a sit and kick race, he can out-kick nearly everyone in the field. It won't be a slow race though. It'll go around just under 28, and in that heat, that is anything but slow.

Culpepper for the win: 27:52

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Will Hall do a Pre and set the pace, wouldn't that be his best chance to win?

ttc wrote:You're looking at Culp being 35, but ignoring his proven kick... and that he was as good as ever in beating these guys in Februrary's USATF's XC. He hasn't "gotten old" yet. At least as of a few months ago.

I have no interest in or intention of knocking Culpepper. It goes without saying that he's a contender. All five have the talent to win on any given day. But this race is positively stacked and we're making predictions here, so I predict that Culpepper can't beat Ritz again. He didn't beat any of the others in February. And in the last month or so, Ritz has set a Central Park 10K record while beating Mottram and run an 8:11 two mile, and Abdi has run 27:22. The college kid has already run faster than Alan has ever run in 12 years as a pro. And Hall has recently run 13 miles on the road at just over the 4:30/mile pace that many here think will win this 10,000 meter track championship. So fifth place in this race would be nothing for Culpepper to hang his head about.