Reasonable half marathon goal

Your speed iindicates better than 1:30, so if you can't/don't break 1:35, it's because your aerobic fitness is poor.

1:35 looks to easy of a goal to me, but then again, your drop off in pace between 5K and 10K is more than it ought to be.

It'll be close, but I don't think you'll make 1:35. You have the speed but the fact that you're only running 35-40 and your 10K mark is much worse then your 5K (and the fact that you haven't run further then 11 miles) leads me to believe you'll have trouble in the later stages of the race.

I'd guess around 1:38-1:40.

My longest run since the New Year has been 11.5. That was at about 7:30 pace, give or take. I've been trying to just move up the length of my normal runs for 5-6 to 7-8 and running those at close to goal pace as possilbe (7:15).

So what should my focus be? Just cranking out miles? I have access to a high school track that I try and get out on once a week. Pre-marathon races?

Thanks so far for the responses.

4 x 1 mile at 6 minutes? That indicates to me you easily have the speed to break 1:35. I would concentrate on the long runs and longer tempo runs of 6-8 miles at 7:00 to 7:15 pace. Don't try to bump up your mileage too quickly. 1:35 can be done on your current mileage. Don't let anyone tell you you need to run 50 a week to break that goal.

I was in a very similar situation to you last fall. No "real" running experience, running around 30-40 mpw. My long run was a little longer than yours, but 5K time very similar. I set a goal to run with the 1:35 pace group, and see how I was feeling. I ended up cruising pretty easily through 10 miles, picked it up a little at the end and ran 1:33:xx.

You've still got a lot of time between now and the race, just try to get a few more long runs in. I'm actually running the Nashville 1/2 as well with a goal of running sub 1:30, but am coming off some injuries and dont know if I'll have enough time to properly train. Maybe I'll see you on the course. Good luck.

You have some time to get more miles in, but be careful doing so. I think the biggest obstacle you face is holding pace late in the race. If you could get some longer runs in (13+ miles if possible) and do some longer runs at or slightly faster then goal pace (maybe do 7-10 at goal pace and 4-6 faster then that).

As for races, if you have a chance to jump into 15K-25K races between now and then, do it. Don't taper and know its going to be tough, but the experience of racing for that long will be valuable on race day.

I'm not too keen with more miles on the basis of not having the time with a newborn, work, etc. -- 40 miles a week is perfect and I feel enough to get in the proper training. I do, however, want to do longer runs, just sort of turned off by how long it takes me to recover. Anything over 9 and I am worthless the next day. My main concern is pacing. The 10K time was so bad in part because I went out in 6:15/6:25 first two. You can only imagine what the the last two miles of the race felt like. My thinking is 7:30s for the first few miles and then slowly work my way down to 7:10-15 from miles 3-10, then just hold on for dear life the last 5K. Unfortunately, due to lack of distance race experience, I see sub 7's the first three miles, well below pace through mile 8 or 9 and then me army crawling to a 1:40.

Great advice though. You see, there are some letsrun people out there who know their stuff.

Your main thought should be to go out "under control", you WILL feel like you are going to slow. This is a good thing. Honestly, if at the 5K mark you are actively thinking, "wow, I'm going way too slow, I feel great right now", then you're going too fast.

Even pacing is the way to go in my opinion. Just go out in 7:15's (or so), and try to maintain pace the whole way. Also, try to find a group of runners with similar goals, and work with each other. It really makes a big difference to be running in like-minded pack, rather than constantly glancing at your watch and being overly concerned with pacing.

Just try to get in at least one run of 13+ miles before the race so you know what to expect. Dont worry about running the 13+ hard, 8:00's are more than enough.

If there is a 1:35 pace group, I'd meet them beforehand and try to stay behind them for a while. After a few miles, start to slowly reel them in, and run with them at 10 miles. At that point, see how you feel and break away from them if you can.

Running with a pace group helps a lot. You don't have to worry about pace so much (if they know what they're doing), and they do break the wind for you. You'll see how much that helps when you try to break away from them at 10 miles.