DIII National XC Predictions

i'm gonna say that the atlantic region will surprise some people with four teams in the top 10 - NYU is nasty and will be in the top three on saturday, Cortland's coach has a handle on that team and they will put their best foot forward, RIT has two strong front runners who will help them in team scores tremendously and Geneseo although highly over ranked will still pull a top 10 if they can rally from the let down at regionals

Womens side should be interesting with middlebury beating amherst and geneseo's #2 struggling to be in their top 5 at this point - any teams race

will the south put one team in the top 25?

trying to be objective wrote:

will the south put one team in the top 25?

Yes, Centre will be in the top 25 and I predict as many as 4 All-Americans (more likely 2-3) from the South/Southeast.

No way South has 4 AA, even 2-3 is a stretch. The only guy capable is Nasiro-Sigo and his tactics are horrible.

Yeah, did you guys see his mile split at regionals--4:41, 13 seconds ahead of the second place guy at that point. His coach must be a total moron not to say anything to him about his tactics.

The S/SE winner, Alex Mahoney, placed 5th in his conference meet (Colorado College went 1-2-3), and that's about the way he's been running all year. He is a good consistent runner, but AA is a reach. No one else has a real chance other than Nasiro-Sigo who will probably blow it. The South hasn't had a true national competitor besides Hagedorn in a good while.

I will take the common answer for overall champ in Yuot. But team wise, Calvin and in 2nd Cortland.

The East has never been a big contender in DIII cross country. Only haverford in the last 5 years has trophied. I would be surprised to see NYU or Cortland crack the top 3, let alone beat La Crosse.

not to sound dramatic but Nationals is unlike any other race of the year and it takes experience and planning to run well there. Calvin will get out harder than any team they've run against and La Crosse will move harder around 2-3 miles than any team they have run against up to this point. It depends on where NYU and Courtland position themselves in the race. If they go out gunning for Calvin, there is the possibility of blow up. If they go out with La Crosse, there is the possibility of not moving as much as them and being left out of the top 4.

Expect the expected

1 Calvin

2 La Crosse

3 NYU

4 North Central/Cortland

I think Haverford's chances are being underrated. I don't think a podium finish is out of the question- they have a really great 1-2 punch and excellent depth.

I don't think there is much of an argument for the top three teams in the country. Calvin, LaCrosse and NYU have separated themselves from the other teams. The second tier teams fighting for fourth place will be Cortland, Hamline, RIT, Haverford. Then your third tier fighting for top 10 will be Luther, North Central, Wartburg, St. John's, Williamette, Geneseo and UW-Platteville/Oshkosh.

The rest of the teams left are mostly lucky to be here and they can thank the new qualifying procedure for allowing teams in that shouldn't be. I will always stand by the old qualifying, not because it was the best way to qualify teams, but because it brought the best teams to nationals without watering down the competition with guys who are slower than JV high school runners. I'm sorry, but the people who are for the new procedure are teams and programs who couldn't compete at a National level before this year. 32 teams at the National meet is too many. Teams 25-32 are teams that would be beat by decent high school teams across the country and that is sad because collegiate sports are a privilege, not a charity event. If you want participation then go join intramurals.

no no no, North Central as third tier? A strong regional showing with a front runner and 44 second 1-5 gap?

I do agree about the qualifier changes. Strong regions should be represented appropriately and proportionately.

Ummm I would say that there is probably nobody who would run JV high school going to d3 nats. You obviously know shit about d3 running. Jack ass. Speak when you actually know shit.

NCC is definitely not a 3rd tier team.

I like the idea behind the new qualifying procedures, but coming from a region that has been, in recent years, underrepresented I must admit I am probably biased. Under the old system, my region was unable to send teams that could have potentially finished top 10-15 in the country, while other, well represented regions sent teams that would never have qualified in my region. The old qualifying standards created a bottleneck, and it choked off teams that could have run quite well.

Now the limiting of the number of teams that get to qualify from each region is a poor idea. The way selection is set up now, it has the potential to give every good team in the country a fair shake and let the best of them compete, but only if the selection people aren't limited to picking teams that qualify. If you have an exceptionally strong region, and only allow the top 5 to go, that region is not done justice by the new system. I agree with most of the changes they made, but limiting each region to 5 was a mistake. Whether or not 32 schools is too many, I suppose we'll find out at the end of the week. Having seen the course, I don't think it will be, but who knows?

underated wrote:

I think Haverford's chances are being underrated. I don't think a podium finish is out of the question- they have a really great 1-2 punch and excellent depth.

Haverford is a great team. They will place high, no doubt. But I think the real underrated team after seeing how they performed at regionals will be Allegany. They only lost to Haverford by 3 points. So if you say a podium finish is not out of the question for Haverford, the same goes for Allegany.

Actually there are plenty of runners who would be JV runners on good high school teams across the country. Wait and see some of the times these guys run at Nationals this year. The guys finishing in the 200+ range in previous years would qualify for this (obviously not counting guys who passed out or cramped up)and now you are adding eight more teams and a lot more individuals. As for me knowing 'shit', we'll just see how the team scores turn out. I bet I will be close with my predictions. And I agree, I could probably move North Central and Luther up into the second tier. I will speak whenever I want sir, if you don't like my opinion then that is fine, but don't be angry that something I said is the truth.

no..no...no:

Your rantings sound almost like a coach or an athlete who's team got left at home. I agree with others as you have absolutely no idea when it comes to d3 running. Probably the only team that does not belong at this meet is the 2nd place team in the south region (and yes for all you south region posters I do know the south region.)

Now I know you will probably come back and say that I don't know crap either but I'm guessing I'm a little more informed on this than you are. Adding teams has not watered down the championships it has just made them stronger.

I think you will see that this weekend.

So now no..no..no... enjoy the college football games this weekend since that is obviously what you will be doing.

out.

Sigl for the win... he hasn't lost to any D3 runner this season. He may have won last year but went out a little too hard. this year he is more fit than last. It will be between he and Yuot but he will push hard enough in the middle to break Yuot, just like moen used to do.

don't forget about Boggs. actually, forget about him and then act shocked when he drops Sigl, Kaul, Leer, et al.

I gotta go with no no no on this one. Teamwise, those 25-32 aren't very good, and i can guarantee the 5-7 guys of those teams wouldn't be the top runners for decent high school programs.

Yout for the win. no one is breaking him.