Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

Pre has an excuse

benz linz wrote:

Ok, so you say that Ritz is near peak age for the 5k (what is that "peak age"?? For U.S. runners, what is their "peak age"???? Kennedy, Maree, Lagat, Centrowitz, etc. You can not really count Webb, Pre, Teg, Goucher, because they maybe did not peak.

bmcpoolstrikesback wrote:

anyone else hate that flagpole was right way back when?

Damn. Someone ELSE bumped this thread up. I knew it existed. Tons of other references I've made to Ritz breaking the AR in the 5,000 too...I could bump them up all day if I wanted to. That's not how I roll though, so I'll let the one "I told you so" that I gave in one thread...I'll let that stand.

As I so clearly state on the initial post of this thread, the reasons that he COULD break 13:00 were all there in plain sight for all to see.

By the way, in case anyone thinks the bumper of this thread was me...

WEJO, IT WASN'T. DO AN IP CHECK, AND IF I LIE, BAN ME FOR LIFE!!!!!!

Props to flagpole.

Mad props to Flagpole for backing his boy all along and seeing the prediction come true. What I really can't wait for is when your prediction that the DOW will be back to 14k is gonna come true, then I'll be giving you some MAJOR props.

First of all, yes, you have to admire Flag's conviction, though it was caveated by the man himself more recently (as we are all prone to do with changing circumstances).

Secondly, he would've served himself better not to have even posted on this thread again. Let it speak for itself.

Thirdly, even if the Dow does go back to 14,000 anywhere in the near future (and that's a very subjective time frame), you would need to qualify that by measuring it in REAL terms, i.e gold terms or purchasing power parity (especially if we destroy the dollar). The housing market may finally stabilize and experience stagnation to slight inflation over the next 10-15 years, but in REAL terms, prices will likely DECLINE. That's an important concept. And I am not personally saying that I don't think the Dow will go back to 14,000 any time in the near future, just that's it's very unlikely. I think it more likely that we stagnate to drift lower, especially in real terms, over the next several years, with lots of pops and drops in between. Japan had an over 100% spike off the "bottom," only to reverse all of it and then some...

Where's Sir Angry a Lot? He hasn't been seen in these parts in awhile...

hmmmmm...

I am glad he was right. I never believed Ritz was as slow as people made him out to be in terms of raw speed but I never saw a sub 13 coming. Low 13's yes, sub 13 no way. Way to go Ritz and Flagpole!

I missed this post in 2006, or I would have pointed out that 1-1/4 is technically dozens. (Plural means more than 1, hence terms like 1-1/2 hourS.) And I think I nailed the prediction and the caveat/precondition with: "I predict that he will do it if he has two injury-free seasons in the next three."

I hope we can now permanently dispense with the phrase: "People here don't understand how fast XX:xx is." I think people here understand how fast fast is better than people most other places.

FP,

FP - Good call and interesting thread.

It's not a question of whether Ritz has speed or not. It's that he has balls and went for it.

No, I wasn't hiding. I tivo'd the race and did not watch until two days after. And i have posted since then. And I did think of starting my own thread giving Flagpole credit.

My reaction: yes, complete and utter shock and amazement. Ritz's performance blew my mind. Watching him cross the line in complete exhaustion and exhilaration was inspiring.

and yes, a definite hats off to Flagpole on his faith (well most of the time) in Ritz. He was certainly right about Ritz going sub 13 and I was dead wrong.

However, I still don't see a 12:50, and Flagpole GUARANTEED Ritz would run that at least by..... a few years ago . And on this thread, my first few posts were simply correcting factual misstatements flag made about kennedy and his career, and that he had previously made many times before. Yeah, it was annoying that he kept repeating those lies and ignoring my corrections. I was 100% correct on those posts, and flag was wrong about that.

But bottom line: while Flag might have been wrong on several specifics (kennedy's career progression, guaranteeing Ritz would run a 12:50 AND 26:50 by at least 2007 I think it was), he was absolutely correct in his general enthusiasm and confidence in Ritz's ability to run an AR and break 13. A big, big hats off to him there. I definitely underestimated Ritz.

(see, even when people make good predictions, they often get part of it wrong. In Vipam's famous thread about Bekele, his initial post contained the line: (something to this effect, look it up)- "El G has no chance against Bekele in the 5k now." He was right about Bekele's wr's and overall ability, but wrong about El G.)

(interestingly, while Flagpole has always said Ritz is as talented as any american ever, and he is looking more correct about that these days, I would still put Webb's 3:46 & Hall's 2:06 as better than 12:56 [not to mention Lagat's times]. Why?

Webb's mile time converted to 1500 would be 3:30 flat. That would put him right about 20th on the all time performer list [all the performers on the mile list are already ahead of 3:30 on the 1500 list, so no need to add people from there for a combined list of sub 3:30 performers].

Hall's 2:06:17 is ( I believe) 25th on the all time performer list. Also, while Ritz race went absolutely ideally for him, Hall's was not a perfect pr day: early pace was too fast, and it got a little rainy at the end. On an ideal day/pace that day, I think he would have broken 2:06 which would put in the top15 all time. But even without that "if and or but", he is still 25th all time.

Ritz's is 42nd all time on the 5k list. Advantage Webb and Hall by a little.

But if you asked me in 2001, despite the amazing talent the 3 exhibited, if they would eventually run 3:46, 12:56, and 2:06, I would only have believed Webb's time. What a class! )

"Wow, I am still a little in shock. I did not want to talk myself up to much before the race but I knew I was ready to go. But I even surprised myself. I though I was capable of getting close to the 13 minute barrier...."

http://dathanritzenhein.competitor.com/

See....even RITZ HIMSELF didn't think he could run an AR or break 13! :-)

Maybe you just got lucky after all flagpole!

(but then Ritz gives a special shout-out to flagpole. Awww....

"I am so thankful to everyone who has supported me over the years. I could not have done this without the people I have surrounded myself with. My coaches, friends, family, support crew and my fans. I am so thankful to all of you for sticking with me through everything and giving me the motivation to prove what is possible. And most of all, I want to thank flagpole willy, who always believed in me and supported me against those idiots like Sir talks-alot (though flagpole, that stalking thing you did for a few years, and showing up naked in my back yard was a little spooky). Thanks big guy! Until next time…"

If you watch the tape closely, it appears that Ritz crosses himself when he realizes he got the AR. However, if you play it in slow-mo, he's actually making the letters "F.P.", not the sign of the cross. Flagpole has entered the deity realm!

Why were you/are you so shocked by Ritz's run?

Why do you think that white boys can't do it?

Ritz was in shape, like he has been many times. All he needed was the right race.

You pontificate so much about running and genetics, you're just so wrong so much of the time.

wellnow wrote:

Why were you/are you so shocked by Ritz's run?

Well wellnow, RITZ HIMSELF was "shocked by Ritz's run", so what does that tell you?

wellnow wrote:Why do you think that white boys can't do it?

Ritz was in shape, like he has been many times. All he needed was the right race.

You pontificate so much about running and genetics, you're just so wrong so much of the time.

I never said white boys can never run a top time. No, I said it is a lot less likely for one of them to do it than it is for an east african to do it. And how did I come to such a hair-brained conclusion? Let's see, here's one reason:

There is not a single non-african "white boy" in the top 50 all time in the 10k. TOP FIFTY. 98% of those runners are from east africa. If that ain't a trend, nothing is. Maybe Ritz will crack that "glass ceiling" and break into the top 50. I hope he does. But it won't change the overall trend.

Maybe Ritz was shocked because he has that curious American distance running trait: lack of confidence that he can beat the East Africans?

wellnow wrote:

Maybe Ritz was shocked because he has that curious American distance running trait: lack of confidence that he can beat the East Africans?

If you watch Ritz's post-run interview, he said he didn't think it would happen in the 5k, but then he quickly amended that and said "first". He also said he thought he could get close to 13:00 but didn't think he'd dip under. So, expecting to run maybe 13:02 and then running 12:56...well, maybe that's a bit shocking, but really only because of the 13:00 barrier and Kennedy's now former AR. It's only 6 seconds.

It been my experience, both personally and in talking to other runners, that most PRs are a bit shocking, because 1) you've never run that fast before, and 2) you wonder what the hell it is about you that didn't allow you to run that fast before. Certainly sometimes you're at a new training level or something and maybe a faster time is expected, but not always.

I think mainly with the "shocked" comment, he's just really showing what a humble guy he is, and I mean that in the nicest possible way.