This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
Cooper Lutkenhaus will win US indoors in 1:43.39
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007run wrote:
This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
My guess is that he fumbles it tactically and ends up running 1:44.48 in a tactical race. He does best when the pace is hot, but I don't know who would lead it from the gun at a 1:43 pace.
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Himself
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UngusBungus wrote:
007run wrote:
This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
My guess is that he fumbles it tactically and ends up running 1:44.48 in a tactical race. He does best when the pace is hot, but I don't know who would lead it from the gun at a 1:43 pace.
Himself
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It wont take that to win it or to qualify for Worlds. The real question is, will his PE teacher expect him to make up the missed day of participation for credit?
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UngusBungus wrote:
007run wrote:
This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
My guess is that he fumbles it tactically and ends up running 1:44.48 in a tactical race. He does best when the pace is hot, but I don't know who would lead it from the gun at a 1:43 pace.
He has a lot of experience and now has professional coaching. Why do you expect him to screw up in a tactical race?
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Kickers usually win wrote:
UngusBungus wrote:
My guess is that he fumbles it tactically and ends up running 1:44.48 in a tactical race. He does best when the pace is hot, but I don't know who would lead it from the gun at a 1:43 pace.
He has a lot of experience and now has professional coaching. Why do you expect him to screw up in a tactical race?
He's been running most of his indoor races poorly in terms of tactics when there was real competition (Millrose 600m), he also runs a lot of extra distance in outdoor championship races which is going to be a bigger problem for indoor championships (without rabbits).
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Cooper and his coach seem to be aiming more for outdoors. From their interviews it doesn’t appear as if they’re trying to reach sharpness/any kind of “peak” at all indoors. But the kid is so freaky and young that he seems to improve anyway, like a young Ryun or Ovett or Kiprop (before he hit the needle). It there’s a hot race he can run 1:43, but he does need to work on his tactics for running in a pack.
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WillToLive wrote:
Himself
I do think that's probably his best shot of qualifying and would make him go roughly 1:44.0 but I'm not sure we're going to see him be ballsy enough to do that in a championship race with other great runners.
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If it goes out slow in a tactical 52+, then he’s not breaking 1:44. But if he can just sit and come through in 51, then 1:43.xx is on.
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Kickers usually win wrote:
UngusBungus wrote:
My guess is that he fumbles it tactically and ends up running 1:44.48 in a tactical race. He does best when the pace is hot, but I don't know who would lead it from the gun at a 1:43 pace.
He has a lot of experience and now has professional coaching. Why do you expect him to screw up in a tactical race?
My theory is that in the past two years, indoors plus outdoors prs, he generally gets better time wise for championships. He's still 17. He can drop a second PR indoors because he's young and still improving, especially considering the way he ran his 1:44 leaves leagues for doing it better. He's going to do crazy stuff we just haven't seen before. I think he can go through in 50.7 to 51.5 and be fine doing that all by himself and still dropping below 1:44. We shall see. Looking at the way he ran his 600, I think he's been training for that exact scenario.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.10 -
Given the age of the different athletes, the stakes might be higher for the others running. Cooper might very well screw up tactics, but I don't think everyone else is 100% going to run great tactics either - it's the hardest regularly run distance to get the tactics right when trying to qualify through rounds or onto a team. How fast has cooper run without a pacer or josh hoey? I'd put the over/under in the mid to high 1:44 range, but I wouldn't be shocked with him winning in 1:43 or 1:45.
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UngusBungus wrote:
Kickers usually win wrote:
He has a lot of experience and now has professional coaching. Why do you expect him to screw up in a tactical race?
He's been running most of his indoor races poorly in terms of tactics when there was real competition (Millrose 600m), he also runs a lot of extra distance in outdoor championship races which is going to be a bigger problem for indoor championships (without rabbits).
He’s run well tactically in all his races.
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007run wrote:
This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
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He is definitely my pick to win and in about 1:43.72.
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VIPAM wrote:
007run wrote:
This is my prediction for Cooper when he wins the 800 at nationals this weekend: 1:43.39. What say you the brave of you? List your predictions here.
.....
He is definitely my pick to win and in about 1:43.72.
Numbers just pop into the heads of some of you and you spit them out, even though they mean nothing. We know roughly what the winning time is likely to be, give or take a second.
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Herino wrote:
VIPAM wrote:
.....
He is definitely my pick to win and in about 1:43.72.
Numbers just pop into the heads of some of you and you spit them out, even though they mean nothing. We know roughly what the winning time is likely to be, give or take a second.
True. These guys are more concerned about indoor than Cooper or his coach, and many of them are obviously praying he does poorly.
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Bitter Jealous Bystanders wrote:
Herino wrote:
Numbers just pop into the heads of some of you and you spit them out, even though they mean nothing. We know roughly what the winning time is likely to be, give or take a second.
True. These guys are more concerned about indoor than Cooper or his coach, and many of them are obviously praying he does poorly.
This is still more of a learning experience for Cooper, all things considered. What’s more interesting to me is that Hoppel, Brazier, and Miller decided to sit this out. I believe Cooper has them intimidated in some fashion and they’re trying to figure out how to best run against him by seeing how how does this weekend. I doubt it’s going to help. Outdoors Cooper will be able to unwind, and he will likely take them all down this summer.
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School for the Kid wrote:
Bitter Jealous Bystanders wrote:
True. These guys are more concerned about indoor than Cooper or his coach, and many of them are obviously praying he does poorly.
This is still more of a learning experience for Cooper, all things considered. What’s more interesting to me is that Hoppel, Brazier, and Miller decided to sit this out. I believe Cooper has them intimidated in some fashion and they’re trying to figure out how to best run against him by seeing how how does this weekend. I doubt it’s going to help. Outdoors Cooper will be able to unwind, and he will likely take them all down this summer.
They are not avoiding indoors because of Cooper. That is absurd.
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I think it has never been more obvious that Cooper must not allow the final to be tactical at all
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Herino wrote:
School for the Kid wrote:
This is still more of a learning experience for Cooper, all things considered. What’s more interesting to me is that Hoppel, Brazier, and Miller decided to sit this out. I believe Cooper has them intimidated in some fashion and they’re trying to figure out how to best run against him by seeing how how does this weekend. I doubt it’s going to help. Outdoors Cooper will be able to unwind, and he will likely take them all down this summer.
They are not avoiding indoors because of Cooper. That is absurd.
Brazier needs the work. No show. Hoppel has won the WC indoors. No show. No need to mention more. The guy was right, they’re all laying back to watch Cooper and figure things out. It’s absurd to suggest otherwise. That said, I think Cooper would be better off skipping indoors, but who knows what his contract requires.
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