PREDICTION GAME (using 6x800w/2min & 8x400w/2min)

I did these same sessions last spring, about one month apart. College guy

9x400 w/ 90 seconds rest I hit 59-57.

7x800 w/ 2 min rest (400m jog), I hit 2:08-2:06.

~2:22 plus 1-2 sec avg for that workout is at least 9:40 3200 shape. The people I know who've run sub 9:40 have run mid to high 4:20s. You're likely already sub 4:30 fitness. The people I know who've run this exact workout ran 4:27, and they were more distance-oriented. What is your 400m PR?

Try 6-7x400m / 1 min rest next time for a better mile indicator and add a tag 400 full rest or 2-4x200-150m full rest after if you want to work on a kick. NOP athletes in the 2010s era had a post-workout kick regimen in a similar shape and form.

Usually the race-pace mile pace workouts are:

6x400m /50sec-1 min

8x400m / 75-90sec

10x400m / 90sec-2 min

And the times will be 1-2 sec faster per lap than actual race pace.

For race strategy parabolic splits have always been the best way to PR. You can shoot for 65 68 68 64 = 4:25 or 66 69 69 65 = 4:29. Come thru 800m at least 2:15. Start of the 3rd lap, keep pushing hard. If you still have pacers going the right pace through lap 3 that makes your job easier. 3:22 or faster at 1200 you have it in the bag. If you slip to 3:25 at 1200m, don't panic. Dig deep, unleash a long kick at 250m-300m to go; don't wait till the last 100-150m. Your body has 48-54 seconds of ATP; time it right and you should run out at the finish line.

It's also been fairly accurate for predicting race times when interpolating (e.g. give it a 400m and 3200m time). Extrapolating for 1-2 races over and under have been okay as well. The sprint predictions are questionable.

If you are aerobically conditioned well, it should be closer to a 4-5 sec/lap difference from mile to 2 mile. If you are more of a speed guy, 5-6 sec/lap.

Thank you for all of the advice! Especially the pacing splits strategy. I'm also very aware of the Stats Gangsta calculator but my only PR efforts are a 2:05 800m from early season and a perfect condition but tactical (came through 2400m in 7:31) 9:53 3200m, also from early season, which predict about a 4:34, which I'm hoping to beat by a bit. It's been a month of sharpening, hopefully it's enough for the post-season.

I feel like I'm definitely a strength based runner since my 400m PR is a 57 and I've never had an amazing final 100m kick but the long drive is definitely helpful. A good bit of it is just mental so knowing that it's feasible to kick drive for like 40-50 seconds will help starting it early. Wish me luck :p

I'll have my teammates lead me out in a 66 and try to run 68s in the middle two laps and kick for the final, and we'll see what happens!

Ran 4:32 today (Wednesday). Had my friend pace me perfectly 66-68-68 to come through about 3:22 high, but couldn't close hard enough and couldn't close the gap that formed eventually. Closed in around 1:09 to make the 4:32, but I think it was from some fatigue (woke up this morning and was like depressed cause immediately noticed heavy/sore legs, which went away in the afternoon as I did a long 3 mile warmup but still) from the 8x400@63-64 workout I did this Monday that I couldn't do it much quicker. Crossed the line feeling not too winded, but completely jello tied up lactic legs. So hopefully legs are easier to peak than aerobic ability :p

Still a big PR from 4:38. I'm definitely breaking 4:30 this season if I focus on the 1600m for post-champ season, but I'm going to move to the 3200 which I'm more competitive in. One last all-out 1600 shot next Friday, first one I'll actually taper/sharpen the week for, then doubling 3200 to easy Q for sectionals.

Wish me luck!