I have a new freshman runner who has one chance to qualify for a state championship and we’re trying to figure out if he should go for the 1600 or 3200.
He has been swimming competitively for years and just started running. He ran the 800 a few times the past few weeks and got down to 2:12 with a 64-68 split. That goes with his 61 4x400 split he’s hit a couple times in a row now. This week he ran the 1600 for the first time and split 75-76-75-66 for 4:52. He hasn’t run the 3200 yet.
There’s one more meet to get a state qualifier this Friday and he’s needed for the 4x800 to lead off the meet so he won’t be perfectly fresh going into his primary event. When he ran the 4:52 he had a rough 800 after (2:22) so the 1600-3200 double doesn’t seem like a good option, especially with the 4x800 as well. I think the state qualifying times will be around 2:04, 4:43, and 10:30 for the 800, 1600, and 3200, respectively.
Should he run the 1600 again and try to even split 71s or should he put his hat in the ring for the 3200 and run 78s to target 10:28 on his first try?