I recently ran a marathon after some time off from injury and sickness so I had no expectations whatsoever. Because I was not confident in my fitness at all, I took the first half in ~1:42:10, but the next half I dropped a 1:33:20. I am only 18, so I have very little experience with marathons. What would be your best estimate of what I could run with an even split?
3:10 to 3:15?
How did you feel, how did the mile splits go in the second half?
What was your training like the 10-16 weeks before the layoff? (E.g., consistency, mpw, days/wk, workouts/wk, long run distances, Q long run results, a few key workout details + follow a plan?). That would give you a clearer picture. But it’s still pretty broad speculation.
Hope you’re asking just to get a read on current fitness to guide upcoming training and goals. You may not need this caution, but don’t feed a sense of lament (I wouldn’t call ultra-cautious pacing “stupid” anyway after the injury/sickness layoff).
I am quite injury prone after about 40 mpw, so that has been my peak, but I also race triathlons, so my training load varies from 10-12 hours a week between hard run, bike and swimming sessions. Over the second half of the race, I was feeling remarkable, but I hit some hard hills in the last 3 miles which slowed my pace considerably. From miles 14-23 I averaged 6:54/mile before the hills kinda tore into me.