I guess its not till 2025, but it sure seems like they will have a low stick in Englehardt. Hartman and Stephens may develop into low sticks as well.
Engelhardt is a middle distance runner, not an XC runner. She’s not going to be a low stick in2025.
While you are not wrong that she is better on the track, the 6k they run on the women's is far less prohibitive for women who specialize in middle distance than the 10k is for the men. 5 of the top 7 fastest women milers this indoor season were top 10 in XC last fall.
5 of the top 7 fastest women milers this indoor season were top 10 in XC last fall.
Wow, that’s a stunning statistic! But aren’t all of those top5 indoor / top10 XC all JR and SR? Let’s assume you are right Engelhardt is a low stick in2025, it’s lowsticks (25 or better): Stephens,Hartman,engelhardt, nonlowsticks (26-100): Michalek and quarzo?
5 of the top 7 fastest women milers this indoor season were top 10 in XC last fall.
Wow, that’s a stunning statistic! But aren’t all of those top5 indoor / top10 XC all JR and SR? Let’s assume you are right Engelhardt is a low stick in2025, it’s lowsticks (25 or better): Stephens,Hartman,engelhardt, nonlowsticks (26-100): Michalek and quarzo?
to be clear, i'm not saying she will be a low stick as a freshman in XC, that was someone else. I was just saying her being better at Middle Distance isn't the reason she won't be one.
5 of the top 7 fastest women milers this indoor season were top 10 in XC last fall.
Wow, that’s a stunning statistic! But aren’t all of those top5 indoor / top10 XC all JR and SR? Let’s assume you are right Engelhardt is a low stick in2025, it’s lowsticks (25 or better): Stephens,Hartman,engelhardt, nonlowsticks (26-100): Michalek and quarzo?
wow, 2024 seems far away to me, 2025...? But for 2025 maybe not out of the realm to have 2 top 20, 2 more around 30 and 1 at 40 for ~150 points. But a real wag 18 months away. For 2024 I'd guess something totaling around 200 points. Recall the observation is it is tough to win without someone in top 10 though.
wow, 2024 seems far away to me, 2025...? But for 2025 maybe not out of the realm to have 2 top 20, 2 more around 30 and 1 at 40 for ~150 points. But a real wag 18 months away. For 2024 I'd guess something totaling around 200 points. Recall the observation is it is tough to win without someone in top 10 though.
I’m looking at 2025 because 2024 is a rebuild year (0 chance of a natl champ) and 2025 engelhardt arrives.
Wow, that’s a stunning statistic! But aren’t all of those top5 indoor / top10 XC all JR and SR? Let’s assume you are right Engelhardt is a low stick in2025, it’s lowsticks (25 or better): Stephens,Hartman,engelhardt, nonlowsticks (26-100): Michalek and quarzo?
wow, 2024 seems far away to me, 2025...? But for 2025 maybe not out of the realm to have 2 top 20, 2 more around 30 and 1 at 40 for ~150 points. But a real wag 18 months away. For 2024 I'd guess something totaling around 200 points. Recall the observation is it is tough to win without someone in top 10 though.
If a team were to score as you noted, say 10/15/25/35/40, you are scoring around 100...not 150. As I noted on the first page, I think NC State could probably score around 115-120 in fall 2024 with the roster they have right now. Would that be enough to win? Probably not. But to finish 2nd-4th and on the podium, yes.
wow, 2024 seems far away to me, 2025...? But for 2025 maybe not out of the realm to have 2 top 20, 2 more around 30 and 1 at 40 for ~150 points. But a real wag 18 months away. For 2024 I'd guess something totaling around 200 points. Recall the observation is it is tough to win without someone in top 10 though.
If a team were to score as you noted, say 10/15/25/35/40, you are scoring around 100...not 150. As I noted on the first page, I think NC State could probably score around 115-120 in fall 2024 with the roster they have right now. Would that be enough to win? Probably not. But to finish 2nd-4th and on the podium, yes.
To clarify...I meant to say if they FINISHED as you noted (assuming that's what you were saying), then they would score more around 100 and not 150.
because 2024 is a rebuild year (0 chance of a natl champ)
“0 chance” short of 2 lowsticks in the transfer portal. ...and if they are lowsticks EVERY contender (see post#2 for a list of contenders) will be recruiting them with scholarships/NIL.
wow, 2024 seems far away to me, 2025...? But for 2025 maybe not out of the realm to have 2 top 20, 2 more around 30 and 1 at 40 for ~150 points. But a real wag 18 months away. For 2024 I'd guess something totaling around 200 points. Recall the observation is it is tough to win without someone in top 10 though.
If a team were to score as you noted, say 10/15/25/35/40, you are scoring around 100...not 150. As I noted on the first page, I think NC State could probably score around 115-120 in fall 2024 with the roster they have right now. Would that be enough to win? Probably not. But to finish 2nd-4th and on the podium, yes.
I was referring to team score places and roughly 15+20+2*30+40 = 135 which I call about (~) 150
Engelhardt is 4:34 / 9:50 / 2x California xc champ going for a 3rd.
Just as an xc runner she is right there with Hasay, Lane and Baxter as all time Cal greats.
On a national level she will be at worst top 5 in xc, most likely top 2 with Hedengren in class of 2025.
So she is an xc runner. Subject to all the usual hurdles in transition from HS to college, she can be a key contributor in xc.
Pls explain how she finish 1:04 behind Ritzenhein in XC? Don’t say weather either, ritzenhein had to run thru the mud too.
probably not her best day. But by speed ratings, 6th highest in country. Probably does best on faster courses, like Woodbridge, which while early in the season she placed very high and beat Michalek.
probably not her best day. But by speed ratings, 6th highest in country. Probably does best on faster courses, like Woodbridge, which while early in the season she placed very high and beat Michalek.
Yes, those 4 are all gone, and its up in the air (at least publicly) if a few others who were in and around the top 7 like the older Quarzo and Jenna Schulz will use their covid years.
I think there are 3-4 clear "key" pieces based off last year's performances. Leah Stephens the obvious one with her 43rd place finish and several top tier results at Nuttycombe and ACC's to go along with that. Grace Hartman would be the 2nd with her 5th place finish for the team last year in 63rd and now she has seemingly gone up to another level with her 15:28 at Indoor Nats to get an All-American Finish in the 5k. Fiona Smith is the wildcard. DIII legend but its always a crapshoot how that will translate to the D1 level. NC State needs to her to have an immediate impact similar to Ella Baran or Alex Philip in recent years. The final seemingly obvious returner is Hannah Gapes who was 6th on the team and 73rd at Nationals last year.
If Quarzo and Schulz return that certainly helps out with depth, but neither of them have yet to be able to crack the top 100 at nationals. Certainly can't rule them out of improving but maybe not how NC State wants to enter the season relying on that much improvement, so not ideal for a top 5 runner if you want to podium. After that it gets less clear. Still a ton of talent on the roster, but either not proven at the NCAA level or unable to stay healthy. The latter referring to Brooke Rauber who had a really clutch race to finish 5th on the team for their 2022 title but has struggled to stay healthy otherwise. The rest of their team that is expected to be competitive for travel squads are going to be true freshman and redshirt freshman in XC. Can one of them have a Leah Stephens like impact? one of Bethany Michalak, Xela Martinez or Jolena Quarzo would be my guess if anyone did make that jum but thats a tough ask for a freshman. We'll see how Quarzo does at U-20 World XC later this month to see what expectations to hold for her.
I'm guessing NC State will have a strong eye in the transfer portal this spring to see if they can find at least a reliable top 5 scorer and cross their fingers for a low stick to transfer. If they dont its going to be tough to podium unless teams blow up like BYU did last year. The 2025 and 2026 squads look like they have potential to get back to podium favorite status again however. Stephens, Hartman and Gapes all have 3 more years of XC eligibility on top of the recruits they are bringing in.
I’m not a ncst detractor but believe the above posts is the most accurate and fair assessment of your chances for 2024. I’d leave it at that.