NC State is losing Tuohy and Chmiel. Anyone have any predictions on how they will do this year?
And Bush, and Tyynismaa I think? It is early. But, on paper, NAU, AL, BYU have better squads, and maybe FL if Valby returns. Then TN, WA, OR, NC St would seem to be in a battle. And no doubt someone else will emerge. 4 in a row seems very improbable unless a few things happen, including other teams not performing well. or injuries.
NC State is losing Tuohy and Chmiel. Anyone have any predictions on how they will do this year?
And Bush, and Tyynismaa I think? It is early. But, on paper, NAU, AL, BYU have better squads, and maybe FL if Valby returns. Then TN, WA, OR, NC St would seem to be in a battle. And no doubt someone else will emerge. 4 in a row seems very improbable unless a few things happen, including other teams not performing well. or injuries.
Yes, those 4 are all gone, and its up in the air (at least publicly) if a few others who were in and around the top 7 like the older Quarzo and Jenna Schulz will use their covid years.
I think there are 3-4 clear "key" pieces based off last year's performances. Leah Stephens the obvious one with her 43rd place finish and several top tier results at Nuttycombe and ACC's to go along with that. Grace Hartman would be the 2nd with her 5th place finish for the team last year in 63rd and now she has seemingly gone up to another level with her 15:28 at Indoor Nats to get an All-American Finish in the 5k. Fiona Smith is the wildcard. DIII legend but its always a crapshoot how that will translate to the D1 level. NC State needs to her to have an immediate impact similar to Ella Baran or Alex Philip in recent years. The final seemingly obvious returner is Hannah Gapes who was 6th on the team and 73rd at Nationals last year.
If Quarzo and Schulz return that certainly helps out with depth, but neither of them have yet to be able to crack the top 100 at nationals. Certainly can't rule them out of improving but maybe not how NC State wants to enter the season relying on that much improvement, so not ideal for a top 5 runner if you want to podium. After that it gets less clear. Still a ton of talent on the roster, but either not proven at the NCAA level or unable to stay healthy. The latter referring to Brooke Rauber who had a really clutch race to finish 5th on the team for their 2022 title but has struggled to stay healthy otherwise. The rest of their team that is expected to be competitive for travel squads are going to be true freshman and redshirt freshman in XC. Can one of them have a Leah Stephens like impact? one of Bethany Michalak, Xela Martinez or Jolena Quarzo would be my guess if anyone did make that jum but thats a tough ask for a freshman. We'll see how Quarzo does at U-20 World XC later this month to see what expectations to hold for her.
I'm guessing NC State will have a strong eye in the transfer portal this spring to see if they can find at least a reliable top 5 scorer and cross their fingers for a low stick to transfer. If they dont its going to be tough to podium unless teams blow up like BYU did last year. The 2025 and 2026 squads look like they have potential to get back to podium favorite status again however. Stephens, Hartman and Gapes all have 3 more years of XC eligibility on top of the recruits they are bringing in.
As things stand with the NC State roster today, the NC State women would absolutely be overachieving if they made the podium in November … 5th or 6th would be my guess today, behind or competitive with many of the teams listed above.
Even though they have a 2024 recruiting class of 5 plus graduate transfer Fiona Smith, only 2-3 of those should be expected to participate in 2024. Since at least 9 women are departing from NC State’s XC and track distance program from this season, I do expect the Wolfpack to be actively looking at the portal this season to improve their chances for a podium finish.
This post was edited 13 minutes after it was posted.
I think Michalak (2nd at 2023 NXN) will have an immediate impact, similar to Stephens in 2023. Hartman has stepped it up a notch, running a 15:28 at indoors a few days back. I see Stephens, Hartman and Michalak as AA in XC in 2024. If 2 of Gapes, Fiona Smith, Rauber, and A. Napoleon can finish in the 40-60 range, I think NC State could podium.
I think Michalak (2nd at 2023 NXN) will have an immediate impact, similar to Stephens in 2023. Hartman has stepped it up a notch, running a 15:28 at indoors a few days back. I see Stephens, Hartman and Michalak as AA in XC in 2024. If 2 of Gapes, Fiona Smith, Rauber, and A. Napoleon can finish in the 40-60 range, I think NC State could podium.
Exactly what I think. New team targets team places 5-7 with upside to podium if top teams run poorly. Poor runs from good teams happen often, last year in fact diminished nc state ran ok, but won because competitors all had total meltdowns.
I think Michalak (2nd at 2023 NXN) will have an immediate impact, similar to Stephens in 2023. Hartman has stepped it up a notch, running a 15:28 at indoors a few days back. I see Stephens, Hartman and Michalak as AA in XC in 2024. If 2 of Gapes, Fiona Smith, Rauber, and A. Napoleon can finish in the 40-60 range, I think NC State could podium.
Exactly what I think. New team targets team places 5-7 with upside to podium if top teams run poorly. Poor runs from good teams happen often, last year in fact diminished nc state ran ok, but won because competitors all had total meltdowns.
This is an optimistic scenario, but I could see Stephens, Hartman, Michalak, Smith and Gapes finishing 20/25/30/40/50 and scoring around 115-20 points. Could be enough to win if other teams don't perform well (like last year), but more likely to finish 2nd - 4th.
Dynasties lasted hundreds of years. NC State will be just another team with a nice run when we look back 20 years from now.
If you count the two AIAW team national championships that the NC State women won in 1979 and 1980 (as should be done, as they were legitimate national titles, only not under the "NCAA" name), just before the sport came under the governance of the NCAA in 1981, then they currently have a total of 5 National Championships -- which would be behind only Villanova and tied with Stanford and BYU for total number of national championships. So they are now among the top 4 programs with most success, by that metric.
Dynasties lasted hundreds of years. NC State will be just another team with a nice run when we look back 20 years from now.
Women's cross country at the highest levels of college athletics has only been around for 48 years -- since the first AIAW women's cross country championship in 1975. So we can't go back even 100 years. But from the very beginning of the sport, NC State was one of the elite programs. And if we talk about a "dynasty" being defined as a run of 3-4 or more years at the top, then this current four-year run from 2020-2023 of 3 titles and one 2nd place finish is the 2nd best "run" or "dynasty" in the history of women's collegiate cross country, 2nd only to the six-year run by Villanova from 1988-1993 of 6 straight titles.
And Bush, and Tyynismaa I think? It is early. But, on paper, NAU, AL, BYU have better squads, and maybe FL if Valby returns. Then TN, WA, OR, NC St would seem to be in a battle. And no doubt someone else will emerge. 4 in a row seems very improbable unless a few things happen, including other teams not performing well. or injuries.
Yes, those 4 are all gone, and its up in the air (at least publicly) if a few others who were in and around the top 7 like the older Quarzo and Jenna Schulz will use their covid years.
I think there are 3-4 clear "key" pieces based off last year's performances. Leah Stephens the obvious one with her 43rd place finish and several top tier results at Nuttycombe and ACC's to go along with that. Grace Hartman would be the 2nd with her 5th place finish for the team last year in 63rd and now she has seemingly gone up to another level with her 15:28 at Indoor Nats to get an All-American Finish in the 5k. Fiona Smith is the wildcard. DIII legend but its always a crapshoot how that will translate to the D1 level. NC State needs to her to have an immediate impact similar to Ella Baran or Alex Philip in recent years. The final seemingly obvious returner is Hannah Gapes who was 6th on the team and 73rd at Nationals last year.
If Quarzo and Schulz return that certainly helps out with depth, but neither of them have yet to be able to crack the top 100 at nationals. Certainly can't rule them out of improving but maybe not how NC State wants to enter the season relying on that much improvement, so not ideal for a top 5 runner if you want to podium. After that it gets less clear. Still a ton of talent on the roster, but either not proven at the NCAA level or unable to stay healthy. The latter referring to Brooke Rauber who had a really clutch race to finish 5th on the team for their 2022 title but has struggled to stay healthy otherwise. The rest of their team that is expected to be competitive for travel squads are going to be true freshman and redshirt freshman in XC. Can one of them have a Leah Stephens like impact? one of Bethany Michalak, Xela Martinez or Jolena Quarzo would be my guess if anyone did make that jum but thats a tough ask for a freshman. We'll see how Quarzo does at U-20 World XC later this month to see what expectations to hold for her.
I'm guessing NC State will have a strong eye in the transfer portal this spring to see if they can find at least a reliable top 5 scorer and cross their fingers for a low stick to transfer. If they dont its going to be tough to podium unless teams blow up like BYU did last year. The 2025 and 2026 squads look like they have potential to get back to podium favorite status again however. Stephens, Hartman and Gapes all have 3 more years of XC eligibility on top of the recruits they are bringing in.
Schulz and Quarzo will be returning for their 5th years.
This is an optimistic scenario, but I could see Stephens, Hartman, Michalak, Smith and Gapes finishing 20/25/30/40/50 and scoring around 115-20 points. Could be enough to win if other teams don't perform well (like last year), but more likely to finish 2nd - 4th.
Sure this scenario exists. With the distance recruiting focus, they also have all that bench strength floating around. You never know when one will suddenly improve: Quarzo 1, Quarzo 2, Rauber, Hall, Putman, Shultz, Napoleon. There may also be a recruit from Europe, and probably will be another grad transfer.
Yes, those 4 are all gone, and its up in the air (at least publicly) if a few others who were in and around the top 7 like the older Quarzo and Jenna Schulz will use their covid years.
I think there are 3-4 clear "key" pieces based off last year's performances. Leah Stephens the obvious one with her 43rd place finish and several top tier results at Nuttycombe and ACC's to go along with that. Grace Hartman would be the 2nd with her 5th place finish for the team last year in 63rd and now she has seemingly gone up to another level with her 15:28 at Indoor Nats to get an All-American Finish in the 5k. Fiona Smith is the wildcard. DIII legend but its always a crapshoot how that will translate to the D1 level. NC State needs to her to have an immediate impact similar to Ella Baran or Alex Philip in recent years. The final seemingly obvious returner is Hannah Gapes who was 6th on the team and 73rd at Nationals last year.
If Quarzo and Schulz return that certainly helps out with depth, but neither of them have yet to be able to crack the top 100 at nationals. Certainly can't rule them out of improving but maybe not how NC State wants to enter the season relying on that much improvement, so not ideal for a top 5 runner if you want to podium. After that it gets less clear. Still a ton of talent on the roster, but either not proven at the NCAA level or unable to stay healthy. The latter referring to Brooke Rauber who had a really clutch race to finish 5th on the team for their 2022 title but has struggled to stay healthy otherwise. The rest of their team that is expected to be competitive for travel squads are going to be true freshman and redshirt freshman in XC. Can one of them have a Leah Stephens like impact? one of Bethany Michalak, Xela Martinez or Jolena Quarzo would be my guess if anyone did make that jum but thats a tough ask for a freshman. We'll see how Quarzo does at U-20 World XC later this month to see what expectations to hold for her.
I'm guessing NC State will have a strong eye in the transfer portal this spring to see if they can find at least a reliable top 5 scorer and cross their fingers for a low stick to transfer. If they dont its going to be tough to podium unless teams blow up like BYU did last year. The 2025 and 2026 squads look like they have potential to get back to podium favorite status again however. Stephens, Hartman and Gapes all have 3 more years of XC eligibility on top of the recruits they are bringing in.
Schulz and Quarzo will be returning for their 5th years.
good to know. Will help out a lot.
Not to derail the thread, but do you know the status of the men's team? I know Burger is done and Zach Hughes is in the portal but i think the rest of their team is 4th years? Do you know if they are using covid years as well? Could be a dismal year for the men if a few of them are graduating.
This is an optimistic scenario, but I could see Stephens, Hartman, Michalak, Smith and Gapes finishing 20/25/30/40/50 and scoring around 115-20 points. Could be enough to win if other teams don't perform well (like last year), but more likely to finish 2nd - 4th.
Come on people with all this optimism and no reality. NAU and BYU collapsed last year. NAU is much stronger and BYU somewhat stronger. What’s the chance they BOTH collapse again and NCST wins? Do you not remember what happened to Chmeil?
This is an optimistic scenario, but I could see Stephens, Hartman, Michalak, Smith and Gapes finishing 20/25/30/40/50 and scoring around 115-20 points. Could be enough to win if other teams don't perform well (like last year), but more likely to finish 2nd - 4th.
Come on people with all this optimism and no reality. NAU and BYU collapsed last year. NAU is much stronger and BYU somewhat stronger. What’s the chance they BOTH collapse again and NCST wins? Do you not remember what happened to Chmeil?
Read my post again. Did I not say that "more likely" for NC State to finish 2nd-4th?
This is an optimistic scenario, but I could see Stephens, Hartman, Michalak, Smith and Gapes finishing 20/25/30/40/50 and scoring around 115-20 points. Could be enough to win if other teams don't perform well (like last year), but more likely to finish 2nd - 4th.
Come on people with all this optimism and no reality. NAU and BYU collapsed last year. NAU is much stronger and BYU somewhat stronger. What’s the chance they BOTH collapse again and NCST wins? Do you not remember what happened to Chmeil?