Could Nico Young Run Sub-3:30 This Year?

College Running D1

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1 month ago 03/18/2024 11:49am EDT

re: rojo

rojo wrote:
I'm not reading the thread. Let me answer this question for you simply - NO.
Like what they say with the SAT, go with your gut instinct without thinking about it.
He's not fast enough for that. 3:30 is like a 3:46 mile.

I think Nico can run 3:30.5-3:32.00 in next few years. Bob Tahri the French steeple champ ran 3:32.73 in Monaco, at age 35 (!) at the tail end of his career in 2013, and a few months later, Bob ran 1:03 half all B4 Supershoes. Tahri had an 800 best of 1:48.high, similar to Nico, 1:49....

1 month ago 03/18/2024 7:45pm EDT

re: Funky Sombrero

I think 3:32 is a fair expectation. There is a world of difference between 3:29 and 3:32. There are only a handful of athletes who were at Young's level in the 10k and ran sub-3:30. Farah is the only one to ever go under 3:30 AND 27:00 that I am aware of, although Aouita, Komen, and Ingebrigtsen are all more than likely better than Young over 10k as well. Perhaps Girma and Lagat. But that is a tough tough list to break into.

1 month ago 03/18/2024 7:49pm EDT

re: my two pennies

my two pennies wrote:
I think 3:32 is a fair expectation. There is a world of difference between 3:29 and 3:32. There are only a handful of athletes who were at Young's level in the 10k and ran sub-3:30. Farah is the only one to ever go under 3:30 AND 27:00 that I am aware of, although Aouita, Komen, and Ingebrigtsen are all more than likely better than Young over 10k as well. Perhaps Girma and Lagat. But that is a tough tough list to break into.

Since a lot of people are making the mistake of comparing Young to Mo given their PRs...let's not forget that Mo Farah has won more global golds at 5k and 10k than every American runner in the history of the sport combined has won at any distance from 1500-marathon.

1 month ago 03/18/2024 8:29pm EDT

re: zxcvzxcv

zxcvzxcv wrote:
Sub-3:30 is not going to happen without him converting to miler training, and then it is still unlikely. However, you have to distinguish between a competitive miler and a time trial style mile/1500m for a 5000m runner. The latter can run very fast at mile or 1500m without having anything like the acceleration that milers need to compete in fast or slow races. Nico can build up to a very fast pace and hold it a long time. He can close a 3k or 5k in 1:54 but he is not closing any race in 25 like top milers. 3:57 converts to 3:48 at sea level, so I think that you are going to see him running something close to that equivalent. 3:48 flat converts to 3:31.1 by the 1.08 factor. Given some rest and sharpening, he might actually run 3:30 this year drafting off of a Jakob special on a fast track, given that he led that 3:57 race on a flat track at 7,000 ft.

He literally closed his conference mile in 25 this year before doubling back for a 1:49 800m

1 month ago 03/18/2024 9:50pm EDT

re: Nico329

Plus that 25 was at altitude. No way this dude can’t close sub 23 in a slow tactical race.

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