1. Barega. He is strong and fit, has experience at winning, has done it before, and has incredible acceleration. He is very likely the lightest weight of the three, has a very quick stride turnover rate, which helps him accelerate quickly. He will get the lead and will be able to accelerate to hold off any and all challengers when they try to pass. He is not afraid to lead and will control the race. When he is on and decides to go he is very fast over the last 400.
2. Kerr. Although fast and fit, he does not normally push the pace and lead. He will sit on people and then normally pass them at the end. He is not one to lead, push the pace and control the race. Recent two mile record race was an exception, but he broke away from Fisher before the end only because Fisher was not winding it up and just holding steady pace. Barega will wind it up, and be able to accelerate to hold off Kerr when he tries to pass. I could see Kerr muscling his way into the lead with 4 laps to go, and then trying to maintain pace or even slow it down. Barega especially and potentially Nuguse will allow none of that. I could see Kerr being too aggressive (as the home favorite with pressure) and causing contact, resulting in a DQ or near DQ.
3. Nuguse. He is not afraid to push the pace and lead. But he has done this against lesser competition not of the quality in this race. He is good at winding it up from a long way out and his stride is massive so he is hard to pass. I do not believe he has the acceleration to hold off Barega and Kerr, unless he runs super smart and aggressively. Not sure he has the experience to do that. He seems pretty laid back and may not have the aggressive killer instinct to win this race. I could see him nipping Kerr by sitting on Barega's shoulder and then making it tough for Kerr to pass both of them. Kerr will be content to sit back in third until 5 or fewer laps to go.