Selemon Barega wins by stretching the field out with 60’s in the middle of the race. Nuguse will be close behind but he will be too tired to pass Barega. Kerr will fade to 4th after not being able to keep up with the hot pace.
Selemon Barega wins by stretching the field out with 60’s in the middle of the race. Nuguse will be close behind but he will be too tired to pass Barega. Kerr will fade to 4th after not being able to keep up with the hot pace.
You don't think the WB-holder will be able to keep up with a hot pace?
Selemon Barega wins by stretching the field out with 60’s in the middle of the race. Nuguse will be close behind but he will be too tired to pass Barega. Kerr will fade to 4th after not being able to keep up with the hot pace.
Hold on. The guy who held 60s for 2 miles won't be able to keep up with a guy running 60s?
Selemon Barega wins by stretching the field out with 60’s in the middle of the race. Nuguse will be close behind but he will be too tired to pass Barega. Kerr will fade to 4th after not being able to keep up with the hot pace.
You don't think the WB-holder will be able to keep up with a hot pace?
It's not based on logic or form, it's based on skin tone.
Kerr is the favorite but Nuguse has a shot at winning as well. Those two will be gold and silver. I don't see how the Ethiopians can drop them. Or outkick them.
Anyone but Kerr. Rooting for Nuguse and I think he has a great shot. No real rationale behind it but I’m going with Barega who seems to be on fire at the moment. Kerr is obviously on fire too and is probably the favorite but some humble pie would serve him well.
Kerr is the favorite but Nuguse has a shot at winning as well. Those two will be gold and silver. I don't see how the Ethiopians can drop them. Or outkick them.
I agree with you but I won't put anything past barega. Kerr having the hone field advantage definitely adds drama. 3000m has always been the best distance event!! Can't wait
So it appeared very much like Kerr was ducking racing Jacob (at his HOME champs MONTHS out from the Olympics) and now Jacob is injured Kerr’s suddenly reconsidered…
So it appeared very much like Kerr was ducking racing Jacob (at his HOME champs MONTHS out from the Olympics) and now Jacob is injured Kerr’s suddenly reconsidered…
Weak.
Ugh, what a sh1tty take. Kerr was ducking more unneccessary peaking in general in the olympic year, not Jakob. hate him for that if you want, but don't put your own hate fantasies on him. racing Yared is a sh1tty decision in itself, liable to get embarrassed at home.
This was a cash/Olympic selection deal through and through, just a business negotiation behind the scenes.
If Jakob gets healthy and races a diamond league, Kerr will race him and lose to him just like last year in the build up. guaranteed.
Kerr looked really strong and full of run in that 8:00 2M. To lose him before the kick, Barega or Wale would have to run well under 60s. Nuguse will be tough to handle. Low 7:20s is what it might take to get rid of Kerr and Nuguse but there is no Girma, no Jakob, and no pacer, so I doubt that Barega will go for that. Barega for the bronze, Nuguse the silver, and Kerr the gold, I think. Nuguse is ready in the 1500m/mile but his strength might be a little behind Kerr's at this point after that 13:02.
Kerr averaged 59.74 per 400m in his 2-mile, so some mid-race 60s won’t drop him unless he has a distinctly bad day.
I do think some on this thread are writing Barega off for his supposed inferior speed too easily. He’s a great indoor tactician, closed in 26-flat to win this race 2 years ago, and is probably the most comfortable running 30.xx laps (with his handful of sub-7:30s and his 12:43 5k PR). I think he can be beaten by the milers but they’d better get their tactics just right.
If I try hard to be completely objective, my prediction would be 1. Kerr 2. Barega 3. Nuguse, with Kerr getting away by several meters in the last lap and Nuguse failing to overtake Barega for silver after running some extra distance in lane 2. 7:34 with a 2:25.0 last K/26.0 last 200 for Kerr.
I’m rooting for Nuguse who’s a personal favorite, and I won’t be surprised if he wins. The one thing he might have going for him is I think this could be the focus of his indoor season whereas Kerr’s focus was Millrose. Nuguse could be rolling in in 3:45 mile shape and nice and sharp.
Kerr averaged 59.74 per 400m in his 2-mile, so some mid-race 60s won’t drop him unless he has a distinctly bad day.
I do think some on this thread are writing Barega off for his supposed inferior speed too easily. He’s a great indoor tactician, closed in 26-flat to win this race 2 years ago, and is probably the most comfortable running 30.xx laps (with his handful of sub-7:30s and his 12:43 5k PR). I think he can be beaten by the milers but they’d better get their tactics just right.
If I try hard to be completely objective, my prediction would be 1. Kerr 2. Barega 3. Nuguse, with Kerr getting away by several meters in the last lap and Nuguse failing to overtake Barega for silver after running some extra distance in lane 2. 7:34 with a 2:25.0 last K/26.0 last 200 for Kerr.
I’m rooting for Nuguse who’s a personal favorite, and I won’t be surprised if he wins. The one thing he might have going for him is I think this could be the focus of his indoor season whereas Kerr’s focus was Millrose. Nuguse could be rolling in in 3:45 mile shape and nice and sharp.
Something about pace changes and Fartlek-ing and pace changes can affect the smooth striders in Nuguse and Kerr. That’s Barega’s best chance. He loves yo-yoing and messing with the pace. Could very well see him take it out in 28/58 then slow to 32s, relinquishing the lead before a 29-28-26 finish. I think otherwise how could he beat these guys with better speed?
