This is true. She had the 8th fastest time in the world in 2023. She nearly beat #3 Natoya Goule in Bellinzona, 1:57.53 to 1:57.64, and if the race was 810 meters she gets her. Only had the 19th fastest time in the world in the 1500m.
The US is loaded at the women’s 800. Multiple women with the potential to make the Olympic final won’t make the team. Mu, Rogers, both Wilsons, Akins, Wiley, Willis, Hurta-Klecker. Just having the potential to run sub 1:58 won’t guarantee you a spot. She’s obviously got a ton of talent, but the US women’s 800 final is as deep as any event at the trials.
The problem with the US women in the 800 is that there are really only 2 spots available at the Olympic Trials. Athing is going to run out front by herself and the rest of the women will let her go.
The US has something like a dozen women who have run 1:58 or faster. Being in the top two of those dozen women is going to be very difficult and it may come down to a little good/bad luck at the Trials final such as someone getting boxed in, or tripping like Akins did a few years ago, or getting stuck on the outside the whole race and having to run extra distance.
This is true. She had the 8th fastest time in the world in 2023. She nearly beat #3 Natoya Goule in Bellinzona, 1:57.53 to 1:57.64, and if the race was 810 meters she gets her. Only had the 19th fastest time in the world in the 1500m.
The US is loaded at the women’s 800. Multiple women with the potential to make the Olympic final won’t make the team. Mu, Rogers, both Wilsons, Akins, Wiley, Willis, Hurta-Klecker. Just having the potential to run sub 1:58 won’t guarantee you a spot. She’s obviously got a ton of talent, but the US women’s 800 final is as deep as any event at the trials.
There are also several strong college 800 runners that could make the jump to sub 1:58. I think Michaela Rose has the best chance but there are also Willis, Whitaker, and Gorriaran.
And Wiley is just as likely to make the jump to 1:55 or 1:56.
Does not seem to have the 400 speed needed. Not sure about Gorriaran, but the others I mentioned have split some 51.xx 4x4 legs. The 800 trend currently favors speed. Hodgkinson has run 51, Moraa 50 and Mu 49 out the blocks in an open 400.
Odds are on a girl who ran 1:57 at 19 rather than 25 year olds who were running 1:59. Her improvement will be more than anyone else in the field.
Athing Mu is the best in the world. Raevyn Rogers is a defending bronze medalist and she's still in her prime. Both would be heavily favored over Wiley.
I think it's not crazy to say that, despite or perhaps because of her youth, Wiley might be the most likely to finish third out of the rest of the group. But when there are so many comparable runners bunched in that tight, the odds of any one runner getting out are way below 50%. The 800 is brutal like that.
Mu ain't gonna let her front run the final, which means she's going to be in a crazy positioning battle for the 2nd and 3rd spots. She's going to have to beat the lady that beat her this weekend, and a big pack of other great runners. She *might* get there, but it's no slam dunk, by any means.
Odds are on a girl who ran 1:57 at 19 rather than 25 year olds who were running 1:59. Her improvement will be more than anyone else in the field.
Athing Mu is the best in the world. Raevyn Rogers is a defending bronze medalist and she's still in her prime. Both would be heavily favored over Wiley.
I think it's not crazy to say that, despite or perhaps because of her youth, Wiley might be the most likely to finish third out of the rest of the group. But when there are so many comparable runners bunched in that tight, the odds of any one runner getting out are way below 50%. The 800 is brutal like that.
Mu ain't gonna let her front run the final, which means she's going to be in a crazy positioning battle for the 2nd and 3rd spots. She's going to have to beat the lady that beat her this weekend, and a big pack of other great runners. She *might* get there, but it's no slam dunk, by any means.
Mu is the most talented in the world, yes. Whether she'll be the most fit is the question.
Rogers is on the backside of her prime. Still has potential, but no way is she "heavily favored". Raevyn has been competing for about 20 years now, so def has the experience on her side, but
Found it interesting that among Rogers' All-time 10 fastest 800 performances (ranging from 1:56.81 - 1:58.57), she didn't win a single one of those races.
Mu is the most talented in the world, yes. Whether she'll be the most fit is the question.
Rogers is on the backside of her prime. Still has potential, but no way is she "heavily favored". Raevyn has been competing for about 20 years now, so def has the experience on her side, but
Found it interesting that among Rogers' All-time 10 fastest 800 performances (ranging from 1:56.81 - 1:58.57), she didn't win a single one of those races.
You are correct. Rogers would be favored over Wiley but not heavily favored. Perhaps -200 or -250, if I had to make a price right now. And probably lower at the time of the meet. Rogers has the name recognition edge right now so that has to be considered, given the pool of bettors.
Once you drop down to second tier the power rating and therefore price drops dramatically. In fact, it's the mistake sucker bettors often make. A big favorite pulls out. They shift attention to the second choice, rationalizing it will be every bit as easy and a more favorable price.
Then the race begins. Whoops. Now we now why that favorite is not a legend.
Mu is the most talented in the world, yes. Whether she'll be the most fit is the question.
Rogers is on the backside of her prime. Still has potential, but no way is she "heavily favored". Raevyn has been competing for about 20 years now, so def has the experience on her side, but
Found it interesting that among Rogers' All-time 10 fastest 800 performances (ranging from 1:56.81 - 1:58.57), she didn't win a single one of those races.
You are correct. Rogers would be favored over Wiley but not heavily favored. Perhaps -200 or -250, if I had to make a price right now. And probably lower at the time of the meet. Rogers has the name recognition edge right now so that has to be considered, given the pool of bettors.
Once you drop down to second tier the power rating and therefore price drops dramatically. In fact, it's the mistake sucker bettors often make. A big favorite pulls out. They shift attention to the second choice, rationalizing it will be every bit as easy and a more favorable price.
Then the race begins. Whoops. Now we now why that favorite is not a legend.