RIP: Marathon WR Kelvin Kiptum has died in a car accident at the age of 24

The AFCON final kicked off at 11:00 PM and ended at around 1:00 AM local time. Since it's been reported that the crash took place at around 11:00 PM, that theory doesn't seem to add up.

I am mathematician and I don't agree. First, there is another tree just a little bit back and if we would check there are probably many more along the way. Second, we must take into the account that when a car goes into the ditch with a high speed in a completely uncontrolled way, it will most likely hit any tree or obstacle that is close enough. Therefore, it is not a question of randomly hitting a fixed point in the interval (which indeed would be very unlikely), but it is a question of randomly hitting a rather long sub-interval, which will cause hitting the tree imminent. Of course it still should be considered a very unfortunate event, but nothing really spectacular in terms of probability. To put it simply, you don't need to be a mathematician to understand that if the car goes away from the road in an uncontrolled way and with very high speed it is very likely that things will end up very badly, no matter how the roadside exactly looks like.

In 2023, there were thousands of car accidents where a car hit a tree.

In 2023, there were probably ZERO car accidents where someone was FORCED to drive into a tree.

Conclusion - It is WAY more likely for someone to hit a tree by accident, than because of your conspiracy theory that a "mysterious" force caused that person to hit a tree.

Logic and mathematical probability isn't your strong suit. You just enjoy conspiracy theories, that's all.

You only have to look at the situation from all sides in Google view, a car has to aim to hit that one and only tree, OR it's just pure bad luck the car.

Bad luck is always mysterious. So far your so called 'conspiracy theory'.

Framing a realist, questioning what should've been explained in the media way before we even hit this weirdo board, is always the easy route. Sleep well.

I think he was in Eldoret watching the Premier League match - Man U vs Aston Villa (7:30 kickoff Kenya time) and was driving to Chepkorio for AFCON

Translation:

the CEO of his management firm says:

I called him two days ago and he spoke with pride about a 40k run at 3000m of altitude in 2:09. He said he was fine.

Kiptum had gone out to watch the finale of the Afrika Cup.

"Kiptum lives a sober life and has no TV. That is why he took the car to watch soccer. Kiptum comes from a poor family and lives a modest life. Until a few years ago he just ate what grew in the garden or what was walking in the garden. He did not have the means to buy other types of food. "

This could make some sense if the ground around the tree would be flat. However, if you veer of slightly from a road to a ditch and you lose a control, what would normally happen is that you follow the direction of the ditch, whether you want it or not. And then you hit the tree which you can't really avoid as it is in the middle of the ditch. The article explicitly says that this happened:

"Giving details of the crash, police said Kiptum was driving and had "lost control [of the vehicle] and veered off-road entering into a ditch on his left side".
"He drove in the ditch for about 60 metres before hitting a big tree," a police statement said."

Assuming very high speed, 60 metres gives you absurdly short time to make some reasonable decisions, even if you are concious and you are aware that you are driving the ditch. Moreover, if it was completely dark, he probably couldn't even notice the tree until the very last moment.

Kenya is 28 mate

Yes, we agree that the probability calculation how Kelvin could crash into that one and only tree in the ditch in the whole area.

Same google bud

From World Bank Group, Global Road Safety Facility

country is under reporting, so matter the age of data, it has been going up though. Your data will be tested later to be probably 20K now

In my view, if you look at the difference in fatalities, lets take countries with reasonably similar road infrastructure, they all be 'accidents' or 'random events' happening to people

South Africa, decent roads, 27/100K; America, good roads, 10/100K; Australia, good roads, 4/100 and so on...

What makes the difference? As I said, driver behaviour due to lax laws or lax enforcement of good laws, so they are 'caused' not 'accidental', we probably just call them all 'accidents' to save explanation or due to lack of knowledge about event.

For those arguing America's case, if you compare vs Australia, we have stricter laws that are enforced in a more friendly way. In USA, correct me if I'm wrong, you can be blind drunk, if there is no reason for stopping you then you drive on, right? Etc etc

Here, we can get stopped by a 'booze bus' right around corner, or any of the thousands of cops can stop and test you. We are more proactive. And even though we have more enforcement, the process is non violent and friendly and we have an appreciation of the work our cops do.

In South Africa for example, cops are not respected, speed cameras ignored, drink driving probably the only 'scary' thing, as a night in the lock up can lead to your worst nightmare.

Anyway, we should stop questioning randomness, accidents, the only tree etc...it's not the only tree it is the tree that stopped an out of control car driven dangerously.

Sorry, can't edit for some reason, meant "they can't all be accidents...."

Don't think it really matters why, but looking at car, it is high speed, and when you are at speed any distraction can lead to losing control. Slight turn, looking back at passenger, phone drops on floor, looking at phone...anything like that or other things, at speed you are at higher risk

They were going to watch the match.

RIP to this great athete :(

In quite a few pics, he looks older than a 20-somethig runner.

Gault says he’s 27.

Par for the course on this site. Nothing more annoying than someone who's never set foot anywhere near Kenya pretending to be an expert on the country and how it works. 20K? Ludicrous. This is directly from the NTSA (National Transport and Safety Authority) the organisation tasked with tracking these figures. They have absolutely no interest in suppressing them.

ntsa.go.ke

National Transport and Safety Authority official website

Link:www.ntsa.go.ke

That's just stupid.

You think he was older than 27?