Jakob Ingebrigtsen on Wightman / Kerr: "I know that I win 98 out of 100 times against them."

Well, those 2/100 sure were important ones..

Make it 97/100 when we add in Tefera (unsurprisingly also in a championship setting)

well he did have covid for that one

Can't you pay some freelancer to translate the thing for you? Pasting in snippets from Google Translate is just embarrassing.

"“It is an enormous level of 1500. There were probably five or six who were initially better than those who won a medal. But it will always be the case that some overperform and others underperform. And when I run 2.5 seconds slower than what I am good for, for various reasons, I am clearly dissatisfied with my own performance,” said Jakob."

Does he expect to be in low 3:27 shape in a championship race?

Exactly. He wins 97/100 if those include paced Diamond League races, but he’s only won 1 out of his last 4 championship 1500m races.

Yes, they were important ones. -That’s why Jakob was extraordinarily pixxed… (over being sick in two of them.)

Saying that, he lost fair and square to Wightman, and may or may not in his afterthought have overestimated the difference another strategy would have made (a faster third lap). -Maybe Jakob wasn’t as good in 2022 (1500m / mile) as he seems to think, and maybe Jake would have won even with another tactic from Jakob, and the latter might have hit the wall and not even medaled… We will never know. But in 2023 Jakob was supreme the whole season (when not sick), and I really enjoy seeing Jakob using exactly the same time gap to Kerr (not being sick) as I estimated: 2.5 sec (after front running the last 900m)..!

He ran low 3:27 in Silesia with very little drafting. In that shape, sub 3:28 in a championship is not far-fetched.

Jakob is officially a blowhard now. It was cute when he could back it up. But now we see he is a pretender. All talk and no action. Like a LetsRun poster. Someone needs to advise him to STFU and train.

Yes he does. -Obviously you haven’t watched his Silensia race, where he pretty much soloed a 3.27.14. And in Budapest he was in far better shape than that, before the sickness made it’s marks…

Objectively speaking, Jakob is a jerk. Part of racing is getting to the race start healthy and fit. He failed that and won't own up to it. Or maybe claiming sickness is just an excuse. Does it even matter when someone acts like they are entitled to win even when they clearly lost?

Mathematicians of LetsRun.com, can someone tell me if the odds are that he beats Josh and Jake 98 times out of 100, what are the odds that he's lost to both of them in the last race he ran against them?

Also if he wins 98 times out of 100 if they ran a million times, what are the odds he's already lost 1 of 9 races vs Kerr at 1500 in his life and 1 of 7 against Wightman since 2019?

One other thing I forgot to put in the article is in it he rules out doing the 1500, 5000, 10,000 triple this year.

"Yes, it's not possible. It will be difficult with three exercises with such a hectic schedule," said Jakob.

In reality, I'd say the triple is more doable than it is for him to expect to beat Kerr and Wightman 98 times out of 100 (now he might beat them that many times if it was rabbitted).

As the leader of the Jakob fan club, your post honesty disgusts me.

All talk and no action? Pretender?

Really?

Jakob doubled in both 2021, 2022 and 2023. Kerr and Wightman did not.

Jakob ran the DL final in 2023, doubled actually - Kerr did not run even 1 race.

Jakob ran European indoors in 2023. Wightman and Kerr did not.

Jakob ran World indoors in 2022. Wightman and Kerr did not.

Jakob ran European indoors in 2021. Wightman and Kerr did not.

I could go on and on, talking about xc as well where he's run World XC and European xc repeatedly (6 titles if you count the junior races).

All Jakob did was after congratulating Kerr on the win say he didn't particularly look forward to a rematch with him as if Jakob didn't win, someone else had to win and it was Kerr. I honestly don't have a problem with any of this talk. What do you want Jakob to do when he's asked a question - answer it untruthfully or dodge it? I hate those type of inauthentic interviews. Dude is honest and real.

He's the reigning Olympic champion. I missed the part where either of those Brits won an Olympic Gold.

More people remember Olympic champions than they do World champions. There are way more World champions than Olympic champions, it is actually pretty basic math.

Jakob has the lead on championship hardware against them. Feel free to provide objective data as to how he does not.

Tefera was not part of the conversation. So there really is no point to involving him when it was a dialogue regarding the Brits. You mine as well dig back to when Jakob was a teen, and bring in Tim C following your logic.

Well fanboy maybe you should be disgusted by all the toxic threads about other athletes and issues. Jakob needs to focus on beating them instead of disparaging them due to his insecurity.

If, before this last race, his odds of beating Jake and Josh them were 98/100, that makes his odds of losing to Jake and Josh 2/100. Assuming he meant this 2/100 odds of losing were to the unit [Jake and Josh], that would (overgeneralizing) make his odds of losing to either of them (root(2)/10 (or about 14%) (assuming they're equally good and always race together).

If he meant that his odds of losing to Jake was 2% and his odds of losing to Josh was 2%, this generalizes to all cases. The odds of him losing to Jake and Josh the last times he raced them would be .04%.

Assuming that 98/100 are his true winning odds against just Josh, the odds of going 8-1 against Josh would be ~1.7%.

Assuming that 98/100 are his true winning odds against just Jake, the odds of going 6-1 against Jake would be ~1.7%.

Assuming that root2/10 are his true winning odds against Josh, the odds of going 8-1 would be about 4%.

Assuming that root2/10 are his true winning odds against Jake, the odds of going 6-1 would be about 5.6%.

These last 4 calculations are a bit misleading because I was too lazy to do proper statistical analyses, but you get the idea.

Bet he'd trade 97 of those for the 2 that they won

Where Jakob is a bit off is he is incidentally thinking he is where Tim Cheruiyot was in 2019, when in reality the field is much closer to him. Tim went out hard (54high) and then just cranked out a 3:29-low with nobody able to live with that. You could say in my view a 98/100 estimate was about right. There was a 2% chance he'd misjudge it, be a bit off his game, or someone would have the race of their life etc.

Now, Jakob paced in the 1500 is maximally 3:26mid-high, which is better than Tim was. Let's not mistake that Tim was probably in 3:27 shape, but just didn't run it due to the lack of wavelight and some poorly-paced races where he ran 3:28 nonetheless. But the bigger impact was the shape of the field, which was at best 3:30.0 or so (Jakob/Makhloufi).
Without a pacer, I don't think we've gotten a true sense of Jakobs ceiling because in 2022, he let it go slow (while fending off surges) and wasn't in the shape of 2023. In 2023, he was sick and allowed for a fast finish again. But even at Pre he had a pacer for 909 meters, which meant 700 on his own (which didn't faze him much at all) to a 3:43.7. In a World Final, he gets Kipsang or whoever for 400 meters, so we are looking at an extra 400 he has to lead. That matters definitely, but I still think there's no reason to believe he couldn't be right around 3:28 flat or 3:27 high. That being said, that would NOT give him Tim's 2019 separation or the 98 out of 100 probabilities. We have seen Nuguse run faster than this (mile conversion). And we have seen Josh Kerr pull out a 3:29 with some extra distance run in the last lap within a 52 high lap. That indicates he had some time to gain in a perfectly paced race set by Jakob. So, there are contenders who don't fit this 2 out of 100, these guys are better than that especially if you are trying to lead 1100 meters to the finish.

How many runners could live with him running 4:43 over 2k? 7:54 over 2 miles? 3:27.14 1500m? 3:43 mile?

He is clear and away over 3K/2miles vs. the usual suspects. The next best there is Lamecha Girma and Mo Katir there. Can't see Katir winning a H2H, but Girma would be intriguing and I don't believe we've seen them face off. If they eliminated the Steeple tomorrow, I'd think he'd give Jakob a run for his money at those distances. For the mile and 1500, I think Yared can hang with him and Kerr in a championship race too.