CBA (based on today’s Holmdel Twilight meet and other performances this year)
Barrett 8:43 - jr R Schmitt 9:14 - jr Hnatt 9:14 - so Mastroly 9:16 - jr Falkowski 9:22 - so G Schmitt 9:24 - fr Collins 9:44 - so Galvin 9:47 - so Field 9:49 / 4:28 mile (both indoor this winter) - jr Cullen 9:59 - jr
I would usually say that those times make CBA competitive with Herriman, Southlake Carroll, Niwot. BUT TRACK TIMES are overrated. Ventura returned this in 2023:
8:51 9:01 9:24 9:27 9:35 9:37 4:30 4:39
and couldn't place top 10 in the California region.
Ventura actually had the best non-senior group in California in 2022. They took 6th in the merge at CIF that year with only one senior who was their #5 that day. They were also missing a scorer (Hammel).
And then the next year the Sloan brothers came in to Ventura from Newbury Park.
The reasons why Ventura didn’t do so well at the state meet is because they lost coach Cruz, and at that time some of their top guys had sicknesses and injuries, like FastHorse.
we already know they are going to suck. They will be contending with the 2 new york teams for last place at nxn
And perhaps the second Heartland team. Stevens Point is looking to be the favorite in Heartland again. They return 4 guys from varsity in addition to another sub-10 sophomore
we already know they are going to suck. They will be contending with the 2 new york teams for last place at nxn
And perhaps the second Heartland team. Stevens Point is looking to be the favorite in Heartland again. They return 4 guys from varsity in addition to another sub-10 sophomore
We don’t know if 2nd southeast will suck. They are more likely to be ok than suck imho.
I feel like heartland 2, New York 1 and 2 are weakest going into the preseason
The reason that the SW teams surprises people every year, is because nobody realizes how fast they're running because of the altitude. Herriman and Niwot both look pretty solid for next year.
There was another thread about fastest 5 team man 3200m average and I copied this from there.
Niwot Returners(* means it was converted from altitude): 10 Culpepper- 9:07* (1st runner at NXN- this time was run last November) 11 Mazurana- 9:07* (7th runner at NXN-this time was also run in November) 11 Geldean-9:11 (time converted from 2 mile, 5th runner at NXN) 10 Keeton- 9:13* (6th runner at NXN) 10 Robbie 9:16* (4th runner at NXN) 11 Kear- 9:21* (didn't run NXN, but ran at state and NXR) 10 Marshall- 9:29* (3rd runner at NXN) 9 Sullivan- 4:11* (has not run a 3200-2nd runner at NXN)
Herriman top returners (using NCAA conversions when no sea level times) 11 Manwaring - 9:12 / 4:18 / 1:59 11 J Tang - 9:12 / 4:21 / 2:00 11 M Tang - 9:14 / 4:15 / 1:57 11 Ogomo - 9:22 / 4:09 / 1:54 11 M Steadman - 9:43 / 4:36 10 Runnels - 9:53 / 4:32 / 2:02 Top 4 were in the 180s for speed ratings
I would usually say that those times make CBA competitive with Herriman, Southlake Carroll, Niwot. BUT TRACK TIMES are overrated. Ventura returned this in 2023:
8:51 9:01 9:24 9:27 9:35 9:37 4:30 4:39
and couldn't place top 10 in the California region.
Ventura actually had the best non-senior group in California in 2022. They took 6th in the merge at CIF that year with only one senior who was their #5 that day. They were also missing a scorer (Hammel).
And then the next year the Sloan brothers came in to Ventura from Newbury Park.
The reasons why Ventura didn’t do so well at the state meet is because they lost coach Cruz, and at that time some of their top guys had sicknesses and injuries, like FastHorse.
Yeah, losing the coach that had his team occasionally make the state meet over his couple of decades coaching was a real blow.
The new coach won a state title on the girls side, had the 2nd best finish ever on the boys side in his first year after cleaning up the mess of injuries left behind; stress fractures for the top two runners, a career ending injury for the number three. Track is showing how much of an improvement the coaching has been with a national record in the girls DMR and national lead in the boys DMR with Engelhardt breaking the high school 1600 and mile records. The old coach is hardly missed. The future looks great for Ventura with the coaching upgrade.
The reason that the SW teams surprises people every year, is because nobody realizes how fast they're running because of the altitude. Herriman and Niwot both look pretty solid for next year.
There was another thread about fastest 5 team man 3200m average and I copied this from there.
Niwot Returners(* means it was converted from altitude): 10 Culpepper- 9:07* (1st runner at NXN- this time was run last November) 11 Mazurana- 9:07* (7th runner at NXN-this time was also run in November) 11 Geldean-9:11 (time converted from 2 mile, 5th runner at NXN) 10 Keeton- 9:13* (6th runner at NXN) 10 Robbie 9:16* (4th runner at NXN) 11 Kear- 9:21* (didn't run NXN, but ran at state and NXR) 10 Marshall- 9:29* (3rd runner at NXN) 9 Sullivan- 4:11* (has not run a 3200-2nd runner at NXN)
Herriman top returners (using NCAA conversions when no sea level times) 11 Manwaring - 9:12 / 4:18 / 1:59 11 J Tang - 9:12 / 4:21 / 2:00 11 M Tang - 9:14 / 4:15 / 1:57 11 Ogomo - 9:22 / 4:09 / 1:54 11 M Steadman - 9:43 / 4:36 10 Runnels - 9:53 / 4:32 / 2:02 Top 4 were in the 180s for speed ratings
Maybe they did, maybe they didn't. I honestly do not know. I have always liked Maurice so want to give him the benefit of the doubt. If you were a kid going into 9th and you had the option to select your school, I would wager most would want to go to Niwot with all they have going for them. Maurice and Kelly are already great coaches. Add in knowledge from the Culpeper's and the Ritzenheins and there is a LOT of high end knowledge available to these kiddos.
fair enough - here are Niwots times they have run this year. I will star results outside of CO
10th 1:52 4:14*
9th 1:56 4:18
10th 1:57 4:21 9:32
11th 2:02 4:25 9:46
11th 1:56 4:24 9:47*
11th 2:01 4:27 9:35
11th 2:01 4:30
10th 4:31 9:23*
11th 1:58 4:31
11th 4:31 9:40
11th 1:57 4:32
11th 1:56 4:34
1oth 4:34 9:48
11th 4:39 10:07
It’s not realistic to have this much talent without recruiting. I hope Herriman and Southlake Carroll can beat recruiting youth runners Niwot team at nxn
fair enough - here are Niwots times they have run this year. I will star results outside of CO
10th 1:52 4:14*
9th 1:56 4:18
10th 1:57 4:21 9:32
11th 2:02 4:25 9:46
11th 1:56 4:24 9:47*
11th 2:01 4:27 9:35
11th 2:01 4:30
10th 4:31 9:23*
11th 1:58 4:31
11th 4:31 9:40
11th 1:57 4:32
11th 1:56 4:34
1oth 4:34 9:48
11th 4:39 10:07
It’s not realistic to have this much talent without recruiting. I hope Herriman and Southlake Carroll can beat recruiting youth runners Niwot team at nxn
I have a friend with a kid on that team. They absolutely don't recruit. Niwot is an unincorporated town in Boulder County. It is very easy to open enroll into any HS in the county. Many kids open enroll into a HS that is not their neighborhood school. Running is very popular in Boulder. Niwot has the best coach in the area and a great team culture. Because of this, many who are interested in running choose to open enroll their kids into Niwot.
Additionally, if you dig into the roster, you'll see most of these kids had huge improvements since they started. They aren't kids that schools would be trying to recruit. They are kids who love running and wanted to have the best coach.
my personal feel for the top 10 returning runners for next year in no particular order
manny putz - hl tamrat galenas - ne evan noonan - ca ty steorts - se tj hansen - mw joe barrett - ne tommy latham - se robert mechura - mn owen powell - wa josiah tostenson - or
honorable mention - benjamin anderson, juan gonzalez
Just the fact you don't have Caden Leonard indicates you didn't make a great effort at your list. Caden the 7th returner with regular season times this year already 4:06/8:53. There is only 1 returner with a non-Arcadia 3200 time faster. Most of the Arcadia times will be season bests, but Caden's season bests are still to come.
fair enough - here are Niwots times they have run this year. I will star results outside of CO
10th 1:52 4:14*
9th 1:56 4:18
10th 1:57 4:21 9:32
11th 2:02 4:25 9:46
11th 1:56 4:24 9:47*
11th 2:01 4:27 9:35
11th 2:01 4:30
10th 4:31 9:23*
11th 1:58 4:31
11th 4:31 9:40
11th 1:57 4:32
11th 1:56 4:34
1oth 4:34 9:48
11th 4:39 10:07
It’s not realistic to have this much talent without recruiting. I hope Herriman and Southlake Carroll can beat recruiting youth runners Niwot team at nxn
Herriman has a transfer who will be in their top 4 next fall. Last fall he was their 8th runner but ran a 180+ speed rating at RunningLane
SW then NW will be the two deepest regions next year...
Herriman and Niwot can both win NXN or at least podium. Mountain View, American Fork, Valor Christian could all be top 20 teams nationally
In the NW, Coeur D'Alene and Crater will be fighting for top 3-8 at NXN, with Jesuit, Rocky Mountain, Kamiakin, and Franklin all in the running to be top 20-30 teams.
I predict 2 SW at larges, 1 NW, 1 Cali, although I think it should be 2 NW 2 SW
I predict 2 SW at larges, 1 NW, 1 Cali, although I think it should be 2 NW 2 SW
Midwest has a better chance of getting an at-large than California.
All top California teams are graduating a lot of people. Third CA team didn’t do very well at NXN, which might reduce their chances of CA getting an at-large
In the Midwest, both Plainfield teams (who took second and third at NXR) are only losing 2 seniors. Plainfield North took 15th at NXN in their first outing, and Plainfield South lost to them at NXR by only 1 point, missing a bid, which might have given them some motivation to put in work to qualify for NXN.
Downers Grove North loses 4 seniors, but they took 7th at NXN and they actually return 3 scorers. And also 4 more sub-10 guys (and 3 more just off of that) who weren’t on varsity last year. This program is deep and has people come out of nowhere every year.