Does anyone know what Alan Webb's PR was before he ran the 3:53.43? I think his first time under 4 minutes was that same January 2001when he ran a 3:59.86 indoors. So perhaps Webb ran a 6.43 second PR when he set the HS record - that seems bonkers.
Connor Burns with his 3:58.83 PR would "only" have to PR by 5.5 seconds .
I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tinoda Matsatsa gets the win in 3:55 even though I dont think he has broken 4:10 in the mile before. Tinoda's winning 800 at New Balance Indoors of 1:48.27. I think Tinoda actually has more speed than Burns and Webb did when he set the record.
Speed doesn’t matter if you don’t have the endurance to back it up. The truth is, the minimum 800m time needed to run 3:53 is 1:56. However, humans are limited by their endurance, so usually 3:53 milers tend to be more like 1:45-1:48 over 800. That does not mean any 1:48 guy can run a fast mile though. A 13:37 guy with weak speed has a better shot at a fast mile than a 1:48 guy with weak endurance. Most world-class 800m runners cannot run a 3:53 mile, even though they’ve run 1:41-1:43 for 800 and have ridiculous speed.
That is really dumb. Someone can’t run their 800m PR back to back so they need endurance? And then a stronger runner doesn’t need as much top-end speed as the guy with less endurance? There things are called trade offs and they exist in every sport.
The guys running Hoka tonight are great runners but they will be fortunate to run 3:56. Look at what Webb was able to do leading up to his 3:53. Webb ran 8:45 for 2 miles on a 200m unbanked track by himself in March, a rumored 47 split on the 4x4, a crazy triple in under 2 hours where his third event was a 1:49 800, and a 1:47 for the 800 in early June. Webb ran by himself all spring outside of the indoor mile record and the Pre Classic. He was in another zip code compared to these guys.
Before Webb went 3:53 everyone was saying he had no chance at Ryun's 3:55, maybe 3:57.
Teammates, coaches, threads on here...watch the race, the announcers said Webb had no chance at 3:55.
Watch it again. They said they thought he would run a 3:57. People thought he had a shot at 3:55 but not a great one. And they talked about how he could run 3:55 and be 20m back.
3:53 was probably at upper end of what was possible. It was a pretty big outlier from his other races. I would be surprised if any of the current crew runs 3:55. That would be a huge improvement and none of them has shown either great 800m speed or crazy (sub 8:30) 2 mile time. But you never know with HS kids. Some have sharp improvement curves. Look at Kessler's senior year for a prime example.
Thai isn’t true. Most of the people on LR thought he had a good shot at 3:55. I remember scheduling my day around the meet to watch the attempt.
No one was watching for him to run 3:57.
With that said, no one has any shot at 3:53 tonight. Not enough speed.
Rupp was a 4:01 / 13:37 dude. Same profile as Lex. I think these kids are 15/5k dudes. I would be surprised if any one breaks 3:57.
The guys running Hoka tonight are great runners but they will be fortunate to run 3:56. Look at what Webb was able to do leading up to his 3:53. Webb ran 8:45 for 2 miles on a 200m unbanked track by himself in March, a rumored 47 split on the 4x4, a crazy triple in under 2 hours where his third event was a 1:49 800, and a 1:47 for the 800 in early June. Webb ran by himself all spring outside of the indoor mile record and the Pre Classic. He was in another zip code compared to these guys.
It wasn’t rumored. He ran 47.4 at the VA state meet. He has already split 48. Flat ish at Penn’s earlier in the year.
Also in that triple, he ran a 4:06 1600m but it was 2:14 / 1:52 as a workout.
What really boggles my mind, still, is that 3:34 by Kessler. I think we tend to forget about that and how fast that really is, because there wasn't the hype around it that there was for Webb's 3:53.
Webb is not only significantly better but he was running at Pre, in a pro field, with guys to chase on the last lap (including el G). These kids are delusional.
What really boggles my mind, still, is that 3:34 by Kessler. I think we tend to forget about that and how fast that really is, because there wasn't the hype around it that there was for Webb's 3:53.
That's because Kessler is no longer in high school and he's not even u20 anymore.
Before Webb went 3:53 everyone was saying he had no chance at Ryun's 3:55, maybe 3:57.
Teammates, coaches, threads on here...watch the race, the announcers said Webb had no chance at 3:55.
I talked to Alan in the local Reston running shoe store four days after his record run. He and Raczko definitely though he was in 3:55 shape prior to the race - not surprising given Alan's speed - and they were mildly surprised at his 3:53 - no doubt the result of being in a very competitive race. Need to run a fast 800 to be at the 3:53 level
5000m HSR-setter Connor Burns and Simeon Birnbaum are going to take a run at Alan Webb's 3:53 mile HSR. Can they break it? Both have gone sub-4 and put up other great marks, but not sure they have the speed that Webb has...
No, not a chance. As several have pointed out none of these kids has shown the speed to run that fast. I think any of them should be happy in the 3:56 range, with an outside shot in the high 3:55s if the weather conditions & pacing are perfect.
I just checked the Portland Track Festival heat sheets. Leo Young in the 800, Lex Young in the 1500. Both are pointing to the Nike mile after that. Tyrone Gorze in the 10K. I don't think he'll break Chapa's record but a decent time in the 28s would be nice.
What really boggles my mind, still, is that 3:34 by Kessler. I think we tend to forget about that and how fast that really is, because there wasn't the hype around it that there was for Webb's 3:53.
That's because Kessler is no longer in high school and he's not even u20 anymore.
He was in high school when he ran that 3:34.36 though. Dummy.
I bet they get like 3:56-3:58 tonight. There is zero chance imo. At MOST 5%. They need to be faster in the 800m and have more speed endurance to have a shot for 3:53 or less. I will go ape crazy if they get even 3:54s. Their PRs are “only” high 3:50s
I just looked up Stewart McSweyn's 800 pr and it is 2:01.xx and he has decent 15 and mile pr's
Unlike many DL races where no one goes with the pacers, I think 2 or 3 will stick on Eric, which will give them a chance at the record. We could also see some epic rigging.
I agree. There will be 6-8 guys at 1:57 and then some will go 63-64 for 4:04. I expect Heidesch to win in about 3:58 because he will be at the back of the lead pack.
