Can Burns or Birnbaum break Webb's 3:53 high school mile record? Official Festival of Miles Discussion Thread

Burns looks zesty there.

Of course not.

No, neither has broken 1:50 in the 800

nope, they would have to pass 1500m in 3.37.....

Already said, but they need a true 800m attempt for any of us to guess accurately.

I don't see below 3:56 without breaking sub 1:50 in 800.

Magic 8ball says outlook not so good

No

I wonder if there was any scenario in which Webb could have run faster?

Even with the super shoes no way. Webb would’ve run 3:50 in those suckers

Hell No

Before Webb went 3:53 everyone was saying he had no chance at Ryun's 3:55, maybe 3:57.

Teammates, coaches, threads on here...watch the race, the announcers said Webb had no chance at 3:55.

Webb ran 147 in high school

Watch it again. They said they thought he would run a 3:57. People thought he had a shot at 3:55 but not a great one. And they talked about how he could run 3:55 and be 20m back.

3:53 was probably at upper end of what was possible. It was a pretty big outlier from his other races. I would be surprised if any of the current crew runs 3:55. That would be a huge improvement and none of them has shown either great 800m speed or crazy (sub 8:30) 2 mile time. But you never know with HS kids. Some have sharp improvement curves. Look at Kessler's senior year for a prime example.

and probably could have run 1:46 at least. not sure about 1:46.45 but definitely under 1:47. he only took 1 serious shot at an 800 his senior year.

True, but they also sub-1:48 for 3:53.

Does anyone know what Alan Webb's PR was before he ran the 3:53.43? I think his first time under 4 minutes was that same January 2001when he ran a 3:59.86 indoors. So perhaps Webb ran a 6.43 second PR when he set the HS record - that seems bonkers.

Connor Burns with his 3:58.83 PR would "only" have to PR by 5.5 seconds .

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Tinoda Matsatsa gets the win in 3:55 even though I dont think he has broken 4:10 in the mile before. Tinoda's winning 800 at New Balance Indoors of 1:48.27. I think Tinoda actually has more speed than Burns and Webb did when he set the record.

It’s not just 800m speed here. This is hitting the limits of speed endurance.

Speed doesn’t matter if you don’t have the endurance to back it up. The truth is, the minimum 800m time needed to run 3:53 is 1:56. However, humans are limited by their endurance, so usually 3:53 milers tend to be more like 1:45-1:48 over 800. That does not mean any 1:48 guy can run a fast mile though. A 13:37 guy with weak speed has a better shot at a fast mile than a 1:48 guy with weak endurance. Most world-class 800m runners cannot run a 3:53 mile, even though they’ve run 1:41-1:43 for 800 and have ridiculous speed.

Sowinski is rabbiting the race tonight…confirmed. Certainly have a shot.