Jakob is well aware of the times Nuguse has posted indoors. I don't think Jakob will be waiting for the final 200 in this race. I imagine Jakob is asking for fast pacer, and taking over the lead with no less than 500m to go. Jakob will want to have a comfortable lead going into the final 200. Of course, Nuguse could surprise and be right there, but it's still early in the season, and Jakob has done the training he's wanted: altitude strength in USA, hills, and of course his high threshold pacing.
I give Jakob 90% chance to win, Nuguse 10%.