Speaking from experience and similar event preferences (3k/5k, 8:22/14:33). I ran 14:33 and 30:15 off of 60mpw. I'd say increasing your mileage to at least 70mpw would give you a better chance of going sub 30 in the 10k
BUT: When you have good wheels (4:00 1500 or quicker), you have the talent to potentially go sub 30. Sub 15 means you are talented.
You might be good to start doing weekly threshold work and weekly medium/MP efforts bc this helps extremely for the 10k. The 10k essentially is a very hard tempo run.
Believe it or not, but getting efficient at 5:00 - 5:45 pace will help. Also getting more resistant at 66 - 70 second quarters will help.
For starters: When I broke 30 the first time, I wasn't doing very much 10k stuff. I did 10 x 600 in cold weather at 1:42 with long rests (600j), I did 25k runs with hills at 5:45ish, I did a couple XC races before, as well as 90ish mpw and stuff like 10 mile tempos at 5:20ish and 3 x 3k at 9:30ish (what felt relatively relaxed).
My *best* 10k race came after including more specific stuff like 8 x 1200 at 10k pace.
Great opportunities to run a fast 10K can be somewhat rare. If you get to a point where you are racing outdoor 5ks and no matter the tactics, conditions in the race, etc... you are always breaking 15, then you've got a shot at sub 30 in a perfectly paced, nice weather 10k. I'm of course assuming you are a college aged runner with several years at or near your stated weekly mileage.
Without that perfect conditions 10k scenario (Stanford, no wind, 50-55 degrees), you've got to be at 14:30 at least to have a shot and likely more in the 14:15 range.
This is me, but I was locked out of my username. I've actually only been running 60 mpw this year. I peaked at 55 and averaged 45-50 before that as a senior, and about 40 as a junior.
I've always been quite aerobically efficient - my XC 5k / 3200 times were about equivalent, even off lower mileage, but significantly better than my mile and 800. I do have a couple of 5ks coming up, though, so I'm hoping I can get down to right around 14:30 or faster, and then use that fitness so I'll be able to come through 5k at ~15:00-15:05 feeling like a tempo, and then 8k around 24 without feeling completely exhausted.
I'd say you'd need to go at least 14:20 to be able to break 30:00.
It's only the real endurance monsters that can double it and add 60 seconds.
Cheptegei's WRs for example, translate to a double it and add 61 seconds, and he's running a lot faster, so the reduction in pace is a much bigger ratio for him.
There's no set formula that will get you from 15:00 to 30:00. No one knows exactly how you'll respond to higher mileage. You will likely improve (if you don't get injured), but by how much, who knows.
Just be sensible. Up your mileage a little bit at a time, and enjoy setting new PRs along the way.
Yeah, seems fishy. I would say unless the most talented of the talented, it’s going to take about 80 mpw, minimally. Of course, the super shoes have changed that a bit. For what’s it’s worth OP, I found sub-30 to be equivalent to sub-14:25. Not saying you can’t do it w a sub-14:30 as we’re almost splitting hairs, but sub-14:25 and you’re there.
I was 14:17 and 29:05 but had 4:00 mile speed which indicates I was probably more of a 13:35 5k runner just never ran it. I was more of an 8/15 runner.
Yeah, seems fishy. I would say unless the most talented of the talented, it’s going to take about 80 mpw, minimally. Of course, the super shoes have changed that a bit. For what’s it’s worth OP, I found sub-30 to be equivalent to sub-14:25. Not saying you can’t do it w a sub-14:30 as we’re almost splitting hairs, but sub-14:25 and you’re there.
Thinking that you have to run 80mpw is nonsense. 60 mpw is a lot if you run not jog. I will say more like 14:15 is equivalent to sub 30.
This is me, but I was locked out of my username. I've actually only been running 60 mpw this year. I peaked at 55 and averaged 45-50 before that as a senior, and about 40 as a junior.
I've always been quite aerobically efficient - my XC 5k / 3200 times were about equivalent, even off lower mileage, but significantly better than my mile and 800. I do have a couple of 5ks coming up, though, so I'm hoping I can get down to right around 14:30 or faster, and then use that fitness so I'll be able to come through 5k at ~15:00-15:05 feeling like a tempo, and then 8k around 24 without feeling completely exhausted.
Hopefully you can get a couple shots at the sub 30, hopefully with around 3-4 weeks minimum between them. I always counted my "laps" in a 10k as 1600 meter splits, trying to be as even on them as possible all the way through mile 5. If you can do 3 miles at 4:35-4:40 in a 5k, 6 miles at 4:50 should be on the table with 72-73 consistent lap pacing. I sure don't miss those 5th and 6th miles in a 10K! Good luck!
I coached a new runner coming from skateboarding. He really wanted to race a strong 10k because his sister was on the local d2 team and several team members lived together.
He started the season with an unimpressive 3k time trial. His next meet was a 1500 and 3k PR. The next meet was a 5k faster than his 3k pace.
On 10k day he went out at essentially 5k pace. Each lap he was like a metronome, even splits the whole way, and he finished with almost 2x 5k PR and a bloody blister!