Ricks just looks so easy in that first lap. 1:16 is no joke. It will be no shock if he runs 1:45 next year. For this year, 1:47 is likely. For Sahlman, his in-season performances don't necessarily tell you anything about his peak. Just look at his xc season. He won the title after going out quickly but then wisely dropping back in the wind and reserving something for the end. As he gets more comfortable going out in 52, maybe he'll get that 1:46 at the end of the season. But if I were him, I'd knock out the mile, two mile, and 5000m pr's along the way, because those are surely much better distances for him as a national xc champ.