Runnings an interesting sport because aerobic talent is easy to spot but hard to measure. I think there are a few types of talented runners:
Runner A-Runs low mileage in high school and puts up fast times off of a limited training volume. Runs higher mileage on college and sees major improvements in performance.
Runner B-Runs low mileage in high school and relatively unimpressive times. Puts in increased volume in college and has dramatic improvements in performance in college. (I think Wejo is a good example of this type of runner but as a pro)
Runner C- Runs fast times off of low mileage in high school, but does not improve that much aerobically with increased training volume in college and their times stagnate relative to their peers.
Runner D- Runs fast times in high school off of high mileage/intensity and continues to progress to even faster times in college.
Runner E- Runs fast times in high school off of high mileage/intensity, but burns out/plateaus in college despite training more.
All of these runners are “talented” but in different ways.
There’s also many runners who have a lot of aerobic talent and speed but can’t seem to stay healthy. Often times they are very talented in some areas of running but have very poor biomechanical talent (ie Drew Hunter).
That’s what makes running talent hard to measure. There are so many variations and some runners can be fast off of limited training, but then be poor responders to more training stimulus. It’s very hard to predict.