See my prior reply. Hard to compete with the free TrumpCash (R) that started the whole inflation mess. As a whole, the economic situation for workers is better than it’s been for 99% of US history. But we known the apocalypse is coming. JoeDirt just has to tell us when.
And don't be fooled by agip posting under another handle. If you want to understand agip's financial knowledge, just look at his laments on the Down goes the Dow thread. Can't understand why his investments are failing when the economy is so "great". The average American household has lost more than $50k in net worth since Q1 2022 when adjusted for inflation. The recession has been going on for a while. Biden masked it for a short period of time by selling off assets that others had saved to win the midterms, but those days are over.
And don't be fooled by agip posting under another handle. If you want to understand agip's financial knowledge, just look at his laments on the Down goes the Dow thread. Can't understand why his investments are failing when the economy is so "great". The average American household has lost more than $50k in net worth since Q1 2022 when adjusted for inflation. The recession has been going on for a while. Biden masked it for a short period of time by selling off assets that others had saved to win the midterms, but those days are over.
Joe, with your incessant doomerism you must be MASSIVELY short the market. You stand to make a killing.
Well, are ya?
Not in the sense of trading in options, shorts and calls or other derivatives. I don't understand enough of the dynamics that I feel safe investing in those markets. I know some people with seats on trading boards that do and do well at it, but I am more risk averse.
Biden is making the Trump economy look positively mundane. Unemployment rates are eye-popping.
Anyone can spend a bunch of money they don't have and bring down unemployment. The costs of such reckless behavior, however, is inflation and debt for future generations. Inflation has been pretty eye-popping as well. The ARP was by and large not needed. Many economists withing their own party told them not to do it. They did it anyhow. And the results speak for themselves. Yellen claimed to be surprised by it, which is a reflection of her incompetence.
Joe, with your incessant doomerism you must be MASSIVELY short the market. You stand to make a killing.
Well, are ya?
Not in the sense of trading in options, shorts and calls or other derivatives. I don't understand enough of the dynamics that I feel safe investing in those markets. I know some people with seats on trading boards that do and do well at it, but I am more risk averse.
It's very simple, bro. If you think shot is going to massively hit the fan, you short $SPX. And then just wait it out and be rich... maybe.
Republicans are in big trouble. My dad who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and who usually has rants about Democrats, has been ranting about Republicans. He used the word "disgusted" by McCarthy, the Freedom Caucus and even Trump. Their letting the country default has set him off. Possibly cutting SSI is not going over well either. The national sales tax idea is pissing him off. Not collecting taxes from the cheats and the embrace of George Santos and MTG has also turned him off.
He seems to be ok with the current economy too. I don't know if this will affect future voting but the signs are not good for Republicans.
Republicans are in big trouble. My dad who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and who usually has rants about Democrats, has been ranting about Republicans. He used the word "disgusted" by McCarthy, the Freedom Caucus and even Trump. Their letting the country default has set him off. Possibly cutting SSI is not going over well either. The national sales tax idea is pissing him off. Not collecting taxes from the cheats and the embrace of George Santos and MTG has also turned him off.
He seems to be ok with the current economy too. I don't know if this will affect future voting but the signs are not good for Republicans.
You are an absolute troll, but I will defuse your leftist talking point rant. The country has not defaulted and will not default. That is simply a scare tactic from the left (which you are reiterating). The debt ceiling has been used by both parties for years as a forced means of compromise. It has led to some meaningful reforms in the past and will this time as well, regardless of the bluster from the left. If we can achieve some real bipartisan cuts in spending, it will be a win (not just for Republicans, but for the American people). Social Security is not funded by federal income tax, so is not in danger of being cut, as it is not discretionary spending. It is funded by FICA (both the employee and employer contributions). That is another scare tactic from the left. Democrats had 2 years with complete control of government and did nothing to address the dwindling reserve, so don't act like Democrats have provided a solution to the Social Security issue. They have simply kicked the can down the road, like every other administration (left or right).
The national flat tax will never fly, it's just Politi speak. It's like when Democrats propose Medicare for all or universal basic income. They say it to enliven their base during election season, but it will never happen. Santos, MTG and Boebert are fools. So are AOC, Sanders, and the Squad. Both sides have idiots on their fringe. Your father (if indeed he exists) should be more enraged by the price of gas, eggs, and the dwindling of his net worth the past year that resulted from Biden's failed economic policies. You should be angry about the prospect of getting drafted to fight in a world war in Ukraine or China in the near future, the price of your college education that has been inflated by the army of DEI officials on campus and teacher benefit packages that far exceed those in the private sector, and the fact that Biden used you with the promise of student loan forgiveness (that he knew he lacked the authority to forgive via executive order and will be overturned by the courts, instead of including it in a spending bill where it actually could have survived given the Democratic majority in the senate and house at the time).
And, last, but not least, you should be mad at Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden for the incredible amount of debt that they all managed to accumulate on the national tab that your generation will be saddled with trying to pay back because they all mistakenly believed that cheap money would last forever.
All is not well, not a disaster, but risks are looming.
The yield curve is inverted. Anyone who knows a little economics knows that it is decent predictor of a recession. Most models can explain 50% of the variance in outcomes. Why would 10 year rates be lower than 2 year rates unless the market anticipated a slowdown?
Goods inflation is falling, but wage inflation is stubborn. The core inflation rate was 5.5% in November and services was 7.5%, a reflection of wage pressure. There has been a permanent change in the structure of the force. Long Covid, boomers leaving, longs social distancing, and , a post-covid dislike of service jobs, and reduced migration has led to over a 1% drop in the labor force participation rate. The Fed's work is not done.
A drop in housing has led to a recession except for the post Korean War and the dot-com recession.
China's growth has slowed from 7.5% to 5% as credit creation has played out. It has a housing problem and 300% total debt to GDP ratio.
Europe is still facing an energy shock and although supplies are still coming, they are linked to a bad supplier.
Global growth is slowing and will not help the US.
Inflation stable for 6 months. GDP up 2.9%, beating expectations
300k jobs added last month
Wages up 4.6% YoY
Recession when???
Real wages are actually falling.
GDP is overstated because it is adjusted for inflation which is a wildly manipulated statistic. If we used the same measure for inflation that we used in 1980 inflation would be points higher which would mean -4 GDP print for Q4. If we used the 1990 measurement standards we'd be at 0 growth for Q4. So the Biden administration is great at manipulating statistics. They revised the way inflation was measured going into last year and are rejiggering it again this year.
The 300k jobs added was BS. The Fed already disputed the Biden admins previous job statistics as being overstated by 1 million jobs in Q2. If you look at the Household jobs survey it matches what the Fed is saying and shows no gain in jobs but the Biden admin is touting the establishment survey which is less accurate.
All those companies laying off employees aren't doing it because we have a booming economy.
The latest GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis tells us that the U.S. economy is slowing down. While the Biden White House wants to spin the numbers, they are not good.
Inflation stable for 6 months. GDP up 2.9%, beating expectations
300k jobs added last month
Wages up 4.6% YoY
Recession when???
Real wages are actually falling.
GDP is overstated because it is adjusted for inflation which is a wildly manipulated statistic. If we used the same measure for inflation that we used in 1980 inflation would be points higher which would mean -4 GDP print for Q4. If we used the 1990 measurement standards we'd be at 0 growth for Q4. So the Biden administration is great at manipulating statistics. They revised the way inflation was measured going into last year and are rejiggering it again this year.
The 300k jobs added was BS. The Fed already disputed the Biden admins previous job statistics as being overstated by 1 million jobs in Q2. If you look at the Household jobs survey it matches what the Fed is saying and shows no gain in jobs but the Biden admin is touting the establishment survey which is less accurate.
All those companies laying off employees aren't doing it because we have a booming economy.
Kinda like COVID takes here. “the numbers are made up because I don’t like them”
We already explained why big tech is scaling back to pre-COVID growth trends. Adding +30% headcount in 2 years for a top 10 US company only made sense when money was free.
Talk to your local folks on main street. No one is worried. Things are fine once you turn away from the TV.
