Which NCAA distance runners have a genuine shot at making the Olympics

there’s only one

Nicolas of Northern Arizona

1500m: Cole Hobbs nuguse

5000m: grant cooper nico

10000m: grant klecker nur

just one - nico

*I think it's more likely Nur is in the 5000 and Chelimo is in the 10,000 at Paris. Then Chelimo moves onto the roads and opens up a spot for Nico at future champs.

You do realise there are countries represented in NCAA's other than USA though right?

Ahmed Jaziri, Tunisia - ran 8:18 at NCAA's 3KSC, only 3s outside Paris 2024 standards.
Duncan Hamilton, US - ran 8:18 at NCAA's 3KSC, only 3s outside Paris 2024 standards.
Parker Stokes, US - ran 8:18 at NCAA's 3KSC, only 3s outside Paris 2024 standards.
Charles Hicks, GB - I dont think it'll be at Paris, but 27:40 back before his 21st birthday is serious stuff, maybe not this OLY but for sure soon
Moad Zahafi, Morocco - ran under the OLY 800m Standard at NCAA's
Ky Robinson, Australia - 13:11, 27:44 & already been to Commonwealths. Defo going to future Champs, slight possibility of going to Paris if he can run under 13:05 (if everything goes right) this season?

Also I know you said distance runners but worth noting that top 5 at NCAA's 400 were all under the Paris 2024 OLY standard.

Nico Young, 10k

I think Charles Hicks will qualify for UK in the 5000m and the 10000m.

Going close to 13 and 27 in 2023.

Anyone bullish on Joe Waskom? He beat Garcia Romo (4th at Worlds) and Jonathan Davis (2nd at USAs) at NCAAs. Romo and Davis ran 3:31 and 3:33 over the summer and he managed to outkick both of them. He hasn't really done anything since then, but he's definitely one to watch this season.

The most interesting one is gonna be Nico Young imo. The US is super loaded in the 5k rn with Fisher, Kincaid, Teare, Hocker, Nur, Klecker, and Chelimo all looking to be competitive, plus whoever pops up in the next 18 months (I'm not counting out Centro). I'm not really sure what to expect since it'll probably take sub-12:55 shape to make the team, but I'm rooting for him to make it.

800m-Cade Flatt and Will Sumner have a chance if they run 1:44 this year

1500m-No one really stands out

5k-Nico Young, Alex Maier, and Drew Bosley have a shot. Ky Robinson has a really strong chance of making it for Australia

10k-Nico Young for the US and Charles Hicks for the UK but idk if they can hit 27:10 in time for the 2024 Olympics

I would add in at least:

Navasky Anderson, Jamaica. - Ran 1:45.03 for his national record, only 3 tenths off the standard

His times are on paper right now are surprisingly slow but I'd imagine this track season he'll run a really fast 10k. Interestingly he didn't try to qualify for NCAAs 5k last year.

Really good picks.

Olympic 10k and 5k standards are insane. 13.05 for 5k and 27 flat for 10k. Apparently theyre trying to move more towards a ranking based qualification system. Meaning you'll need a high ranking to make it. That doesn't favor NCAA athletes who are racing and training simultaneously all season where as Pro's can pick and choose to try and either run the standard(extremely difficult) or pick fast races to get their ranking up. I might ge wrong but I don't think anyone in the NCAA can run either of those olympic standard times and so they'll need a high ranking to qualify which will favour the Pro's. Ky Robinson for Australia having run 13.11 at Boston has got to be in the mix though. Charles Hicks times are a fair bit off if he's going to make 10k for GB.

USA
10 k - Nico Young. After that Dylan Jacobs, Alex Maier and maybe some of the younger guys. If Parker Wolfe and Graham Blanks continue their current trajectory, they could have a chance

It seems difficult for an NCAA 10k runner for example qualify if they don't hit the time standard because there are not a lot of opportunities to get a high ranking. Do college meets even count (much)? What would their best strategy be to get a higher ranking?

NCAA meets are not going to count at all in the future for international qualifiers or records, as far as I understand. One problem is that NCAA is not confirming to WA anti-doping measures (supposedly not mainly the fault of athletics but stuff like college American Football that seems to depend on a cavalier attitude to the use of certain substances).

Very bullish on flatt and sumner to make the team especially after what happened at Eugene 22

imo sumner is one of the best US mens 800 prospects in recent years. Maybe longer. Flatt will run fast but I don’t see his celling being quite as high as sumner.

Yep. Interesting that NCAA distance athletes aren't tested at all. Nico Young recently said he's never even done a drugs test.

That's disappointing. I thought on the flotrack pod they were saying that the conference and championship meets would count, I was hoping maybe meets would count more. Otherwise I am really not sure how they make it in since the 5k/10k runners unlikely to get the new standards.

That is the most relevant take.

Standards have gone stupidly hard

For 1500m and above, the NCAA season doesn’t allow you opportunities to score high points and zero chance to get new qualifying standard.

In addition to the anti-doping protocol, WA wants the NCAA to conduct its meets under WA rules. This might sound petty, but that includes runners not wearing super shoes in distance races. Not sure if its officials not bothering/caring to check shoes or enforcing it in track races, but super shoes aren't supposed to be allowed.

There is another thread floating around about the differences between WA and NCAA rule, apparently:

1 - inside rail / lane violations

2 - stack height on shoes

3 - video for jumps.

4 - drug control

1 and 2 easy fix, 3&4 pretty expensive

should have nothing to do with football.