NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Herriman*

Reminder*

Herriman is the best team in the country in 2023. Everyone else is playing Ketchup.

Don't get cocky, actions speak louder than words...

Remember state my friend?

The notion of Boise schools running at altitude and that seriously impacting them is a joke. You're talking about maybe 4 seconds over 3200m, and probably less. Landon Heemeyer solo'd a 9:03 in Boise and then ran 8:59 in a race in Portland where he got dusted over the last lap.

The bigger factor for the Boise schools is that they get not windy weather and better fields when they venture to Oregon and California. Now Pocatello, Idaho Falls, Blackfoot, etc., they deal with a lot more wind, significantly weaker fields, and ~4500'+ of elevation.

Didn't Herriman get 3rd at NXN? That sounds to me like a pretty big indicator that they will be a contender for the title next year.

Herriman is scary. If it was Rocky Mountain, one of the darlings of this site, that had these times, everyone would be saying they are a clear favorite for the title.

9:14, 9:16, 9:19, 9:38, 9:45, 9:47, 9:48, 9:50, 9:55.

Herriman's 9th would be Rocky's number 3 returner.

Scoring through 7 would go Rocky, Rocky, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Herriman, Rocky, Rocky, Rocky, Rocky, Rocky. The scoring would be 25 to 36. The team average times would be 9:26.4 vs 9:38.8.

Nobody was implying that Rocky Mountain will be winning NXN. Especially not over Herriman.

I was pointing out that schools within the Northwest and Southwest that run at altitude are generally better than their times reflect. THIS INCLUDES HERRIMAN.

American Fork top 5 nonseniors
Simmons - 8:34 (will win the title so he will get the 1 point)
Jaster - 9:14
Evans - 9:21
Bradshaw - 9:21
Pack - 9:29 (but had a rough start to the track season but was #2 on the team at NXN)
Orr - 9:45
Moore - 9:56
I think that AF has a solid top 4, and will be solid through 5 if Pack is healthy and on his A-game at NXN.
But the problem is, if any of their top 5 has an off day, their whole team will have an off day if no one else steps up. It would be helpful if they develop a 6 and 7 over the summer.

I think it’s good to keep AF as the early favorite right now since they got 5th at NXN and lose basically no one important

For XC predictions, Cross country course times on the grass tell a lot more than track times on the rubber

Don’t sleep on Ventura

The thing about Ventura is that they are really good, but they only have a top 5 (just like American Fork), that happen to be worse than AF. Ventura is like a beta version of American Fork.

AF has one low stick in Danny Simmons, who will most likely win NXN, but Ventura has two in Anthony Fast Horse (4:08/8:51) and Micah Grossman (4:09/9:01). They also have a stud freshman who has run 4:30 and possibly could step up next year

I would also not count out Great Oak. they weren’t expected to even make it nxn last year and they got 6th

Actually, at the beginning of last season, they were expected to make it (they got 7th at RL 2021 and returned most of their varsity).

I think I remember hearing somewhere that in the middle of XC 2022 there were guys sick

Firman was also flukey. They were the chute next to Rocky Mountain and two over from the middle barrier. Rocky cut over quickly and Great Oak got shot out the back.

Mostly true. If you take a look at the splits, all of Great Oak's scorers got out at around 2:40 for the k, which was only around 6 seconds back from the top pack.

Saying they got "Shot out the back" makes it sound like it was impossible for them to move after the start, but that doesn't seem to be the

case.

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1k is plenty of time for runners to work back up. Great Oak was at the back of the middle section rounding the first bend, which is about 200 meters in. Also, 6 seconds is the difference between 20th and like 60th. That’s a lot of bodies to have to move around the rest of the race. Boise was the team against the middle barrier and they were also had a terrible start.